Sunday presents a four-game slate that begins at 1pm ET. Nearly ever player has a higher Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and only three center-eligible players projected for minutes don’t possess a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent on DraftKings (per the Player Models). No player on FanDuel priced above $4,000 claims a Bargain Rating greater than 81 percent, and many of the options have a single-digit Bargain Rating. That reads like a recipe for cash games on DraftKings and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on FanDuel. Let’s dive in.
Russell Westbrook provided a +3.14 FanDuel Plus/Minus at $14,600 in the last game, and Westbrook’s salary remains $14,600 today, the highest salary in our database going back to the 2014-15 season. When Westbrook has been priced up to at least $13,000 on DraftKings (excluding the season finale, when he sat the second half), he’s recorded a +5.35 Plus/Minus and averaged 69.73 points in 20 chances. Westbrook costs $13,800 on DraftKings, which translates to a salary-implied point total of 66.65. When the Thunder have been favored at home and implied to score at least 109 points this season, Westbrook has been an elite play (per the Trends tool):
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Chris Paul averaged 1.73 DraftKings points per minute and a +13.1 percent usage rate differential in the 26 minutes Blake Griffin was on the bench during this postseason (per the On/Off tool). In the 21 games Griffin missed this year, Paul averaged a +13.1 percent assist rate differential and 44.16 DraftKings points in 29.3 minutes per game. The Clippers are the only team presently implied to score fewer than 100 points (per the Vegas dashboard), marking the eighth such instance for the Clippers all season. Paul has averaged 45.59 DraftKings points and a +3.76 Plus/Minus when the Clippers have been implied to score fewer than 100 points over the last two seasons, and Paul has been priced up to a season-high $9,800 on DraftKings and $10,300 on FanDuel. Over the last 10 games, Paul has been extremely consistent:
The $4,300 difference between Westbrook and Paul on FanDuel may tilt the scales in Paul’s favor in cash games, and it will likely lead to more avenues when constructing a roster in GPPs. Westbrook will likely play more minutes than Paul in a game with a faster pace and the highest over/under on the slate, cementing his status as an elite GPP option.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Jerian Grant underwhelmed in his first postseason start, and coach Fred Hoiberg neglected to keep an actual point guard on the court at all times. Grant barely exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 minutes during Friday’s loss, and his salary rose to $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings. Michael Carter-Williams is cheaper on DraftKings ($3,000) and $600 more on FanDuel, and he provided more value with Rajon Rondo sidelined.
Grant expects to start for the second straight game, but based on his performance last time his playing time likely won’t be guaranteed. Carter-Williams’ higher floor makes him the safer option, but neither has performed well through three games of the postseason. Carter-Williams at least has a postseason track record, and he averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with the Bucks during the 2014-15 playoffs.
George Hill: Among the point guards priced at least $4,000 on FanDuel, Hill is the only one with a Bargain Rating greater than 33 percent. He’s also the cheapest of the group at $5,900, and he’s played at least 36 minutes in three straight contests. When the Jazz have been implied to score at least 100 points at home this season, Hill has averaged 27.35 FanDuel points with a +3.59 Plus/Minus.
James Harden costs $2,500 less on DraftKings than FanDuel, where he’s averaged 49.17 points in seven games against the Thunder this season. For the second straight game, Harden costs a season-high $13,600 on FanDuel and $1,000 less than Westbrook. Even though he attempted 38 free throws and scored 79 actual points in the last two games combined, he failed to meet salary-based expectations on FanDuel. His salary actually decreased on DraftKings to $11,100 despite his exceeding 61 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. His floor is within 11 points of his salary-implied point total on DraftKings, which likely makes him the most underpriced stud on the slate and an elite cash game option.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Coach Brad Stevens plans to start Gerald Green for the second straight game. Green briefly exited Friday’s win with an ankle issue, but he confirmed that his ankle shouldn’t hinder him tonight. Green costs $1,500 on FanDuel and $2,700 on DraftKings. His FanDuel salary offers less risk in case coach Stevens changes his mind or Green aggravates his ankle. The price point also aids in loading up on studs on a slate in which only two of the 24 most expensive options have Bargain Ratings no greater than 33 percent. He’ll be today what he Friday: A cheap starter with sky-high ownership, which Pro subscribers will be able to review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Lou Williams: He costs $4,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and over the last two games Williams has provided 27.2 and 28.3 FanDuel points for a cumulative Plus/Minus of +19.83. He ranks second on the Rockets in usage rate this postseason at 26.5 percent, and he’s attempted the second most shots and free throws on the team. It helps that Williams has played the most with Harden on the bench, and in those minutes Williams averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute.
LeBron James, Paul George, and Jimmy Butler are three of the six most expensive options in the slate.
James costs a season-high $12,600 on FanDuel and $11,900 on DraftKings. He’s played at least 38 minutes in eight straight games, and the Cavs benefit from having two days off. James leads all non-guards in floor and ceiling, and he leads the Cavs with a 42.8 percent assist rate.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
George costs $10,300 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He leads all small forwards with a 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel, and since the Pacers are on the brink of elimination there’s little doubt that George will exceed 40 minutes for the fourth straight game. George claims dual eligibility on DraftKings at power forward, and he leads all power forwards in projected ownership.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Butler attempted 21 shots and zero free throws in Friday’s loss. It was the fifth time in the last two seasons that he failed to attempt a free throw, and he was held without an assist. The Bulls-Celtics series features the bottom two teams in personal fouls drawn and free throws attempted this postseason.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
The Cavs and Pacers have recorded the two worst Defensive Ratings in the playoffs, and James and George rank first and second in minutes per game and third and fifth in actual points scored per game. George costs $2,300 less than James on FanDuel, and James has the higher projected ownership in DraftKings GPPs.
Butler is the cheapest of the three, and after Friday’s dud he may be a solid pivot play. He leads the Bulls with a 30.4 percent usage rate with Rondo off the court this postseason, and when Rondo was unavailable during the regular season Butler averaged 45.74 FanDuel points, which is 4.43 points higher than his salary-implied point total on FanDuel.
Joe Ingles has played at least 32 minutes in three straight starts, and he ranks second on the Jazz with a 15.9 percent assist rate this postseason. His usage rate and average per-minute production doesn’t translate well to GPPs, but his steady, low-level production warrants consideration in cash games.
Andre Roberson: Through three games, Roberson hasn’t produced fewer than 32.0 DraftKings points nor played fewer than 35 minutes. His salary has increased to a season-high $5,400 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel, and he’s been on the court for all 110 of Harden’s minutes.
Kevin Love costs the most among power forward-only eligible players on the slate. In two of the first three games of the postseason, Love recorded fewer than 30 DraftKings points and corralled a total of 10 rebounds; in the other, he took advantage of mismatches in extended minutes and attempted 12 free throws. Because the Cavs are loaded in the frontcourt, Love’s stability in the rotation was tested in the Game 3 win, and he and Kyrie Irving were benched the final 14 minutes. Love will likely offer an ownership advantage as his ceiling and floor compared to those of the highest-priced players at the other four positions are the lowest. The optimal route at power forward will likely be to spend down in order to fit any combination of Westbrook, Harden, James, and George into lineups.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Taj Gibson was featured offensively in each of the last two games when guarded by Ryan Anderson. Gibson was limited to 21 minutes in Game 2, but Gibson played almost 30 minutes in the subsequent game and recorded 18.9 FanDuel points on a handful of wide-open jumpers and postups. Anderson costs $4,400 on DraftKings, and he possesses drastic home/road splits that increase his appeal in GPPs:
Coach Mike D’Antoni extended Anderson’s minutes in Game 3 as the third-string center, and Anderson’s recent shooting swoon could reduce his exposure.
Now that Blake Griffin won’t return this postseason, close to 40 minutes opens up at power forward for the Clippers. Marreese Speights started the third quarter of Friday’s win, but he played only the first six minutes of the second half and never returned. Paul Pierce played the final 18 minutes of the half but provided only 5.75 DraftKings points. Speights’ salary increased from $2,700 in Game 3 to $4,500 on FanDuel tonight. Pierce costs $2,000 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, and it’s possible Brandon Bass sees playing time as the backup power forward. Speights is definitely in the rotation as the backup center if not the starting power forward, but all three potential options carry risk in a game that begins eight hours after the first game tips off, and there’s the possibility that Wesley Johnson enters the rotation. The situation is too murky rely on an of them, but Speights may provide the safest floor.
Thaddeus Young: He leads all power forwards on FanDuel in projected minutes, and over the last 10 games, he’s averaged a +9.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency. Like most of the rotation players on this slate, Young is cheaper on DraftKings ($5,700). He played 39 minutes in Game 3, a solid sign for his baseline minutes in what is an elimination game.
DeAndre Jordan averaged 39.2 DraftKings points and a 25.4 percent rebound rate in 32.6 minutes in the 21 games Griffin missed this season. Jordan played 38.7 minutes and the entire second half of Friday’s win, but he contributed only 36.25 DraftKings points in a game with 89.1 possessions, a -7.24 pace differential from the games Griffin missed earlier this season.
Jordan: DFS Scouting Report
Jordan is the most expensive center on the slate, and the Jazz’s Rudy Gobert was upgraded to doubtful. With Gobert sidelined, the Clippers have ranked first in rebound rate and points in the paint per possession during the postseason. The Jazz have allowed the Clippers to convert 73.5 percent of their shots within five feet, a departure from the Jazz’s regular season average of 55.8 percent — the second-best mark in the league. There’s an outside chance Gobert returns tonight, which reduces Jordan’s appeal in cash games.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Only three of the centers projected to play minutes cost less than $5,000 on FanDuel. If you’re going to allocate funds on FanDuel, you might be able to get away with Cristiano Felicio at $3,200, but the player pool may force our hand into spending up in order to avoid the Bulls’ rotations and Jeff Withey‘s uncertain minutes.
Clint Capela costs $5,000 on DraftKings and Tristan Thompson‘s salary is $4,700. Both have recorded a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the last month, and they offer comparable ceilings and floors. Capela’s projected ownership is double that of Thompson’s, which creates a pivot situation. Thompson has played more minutes and possessions in each of the first three games of their series, but Capela has averaged higher per-minute production.
Al Horford: He exceeded salary-based expectations in all three postseason games, and when Amir Johnson has been off the court in this series Horford has provided a team-best 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and a 32 percent assist rate. He’s flirted with a triple-double in each playoff game, and when he’s claimed a positive Opponent Plus/Minus this season Horford has averaged a +4.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 72.9 percent Consistency.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: