DraftKings Pick6 is the newest product from the DFS-turned-sports betting hegemon.
Pick6, a DFS product, is a “Pick ’em” game similar to apps like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog. You play by assembling a collection of “more” or “less” selections of statistical player categories, similar to player props.
However, Pick6 presents an interesting twist. Rather than playing against the operator (or “house”) for fixed payouts, you compete against your fellow players in peer-to-peer contests.
We’ll explain what that means in a bit more detail below. Additionally, we’ll take a deeper dive into how you can use a FantasyLabs subscription to gain a big edge over the competition.
How Does DraftKings Pick6 Work?
Like other similar products, Pick6 (despite the name) allows users to select between two and six players, with options to select “more” or “less.” You can’t repeat an individual player with separate stats, and you have to select players from at least two different teams. Currently, Pick6 is being offered for both NBA and NFL contests, though DraftKings will add other sports at some point.
The twist is that rather than set payouts for a certain number of correct selections, there’s a variable prize pool based on the number of competitors and their performance. A certain percentage of the payout is split among the entrants with every pick correct, with a smaller number allocated to those with all but one correct.
This makes DraftKings Pick6 a peer-to-peer format, closely resembling a parimutuel pool.
That sounds confusing, so here’s an example. A typical five-pick contest gives 80% of the prizes to entries that went 5/5, with 20% split among those that went 4/4. However, that doesn’t mean going 5/5 pays out four times as much as 4/4. In practice, it’s much more than that — since there will be more entries with four correct than five.
This aspect makes Pick6 as much about game theory and being contrarian as it is about accurately predicting statistical outcomes. It’s not about how often we win, but about how much we profit when we do.
While entrants are grouped into specific contests — like traditional DFS — you don’t have to sift through the lobby to find them. Instead, you set a dollar amount you want to enter on the slate, which will be distributed among available contests. If you have multiple entries in a pool, you’ll be paid out proportionally to the number of “shares” you had. So if you went 5/5 and had $10 entered, and the only other player to go 5/5 entered $5, you’ll get two-thirds of the payout reserved for perfect entries.
Why Play DraftKings Pick6?
There are a few benefits to this type of DFS Pick’em game.
First, the peer-to-peer nature means we’re competing against fellow players, rather than the operator itself, like we experience on PrizePicks. While the book is still taking a rake (percentage of the buy-ins), as a general rule it’s easier to beat other players than it is to beat the house — it’s like playing poker instead of blackjack at the casino.
Another big benefit is that sharp players will avoid being limted. Most Pick’em products and online sportsbooks alike are relatively quick to limit bets from players who consistently beat them on player props. Which is understandable — they have to have every line right, where players only need to pick out a few that aren’t. However, DraftKings has no reason to limit anyone in these contests, since they’re collecting a fixed fee regardless of who wins.
Finally, Pick6 is available in a number of states where sports betting isn’t. That makes it an excellent opportunity to put your player projection knowledge to good use, without the complicated process of building DFS lineups and selecting contests.
Pick6 States
You can play DraftKings Pick6 in the states listed below:
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Delaware
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Oklahoma
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Washington DC
Additionally, Jon Aguiar, a representative for DraftKings, said “it’s a full-court press on our end to get this game to as many of you as quickly as possible.”
General Strategy
Still, we need to get enough picks right or simply being contrarian doesn’t matter. The obvious first step is to head over to our Player Props tool, where you can search for any relevant player. By comparing our projections to the Pick6 line, you can identify +EV spots where there might be an edge.
Not a FantasyLabs subscriber? You should fix that — but there’s still hope. If you don’t have access to our industry-leading projections, there’s still a way to get an edge. Due to the peer-to-peer nature of Pick6, prop lines don’t move throughout the day like you see on DraftKings Sportsbook. (Since all contestants need to be operating with the same lines, once they go up they stay locked.) However, prop lines on sportsbooks do.
Therefore, you could find spots where prop lines on DraftKings or other sportsbooks differ from the Pick6 line. That likely means sharp bett0rs have taken a side on that prop — providing at least a hint about what projections have to say on that player.
Game Theory
Of course, that latter strategy has a drawback. Since everyone can see those lines, spots where the Pick6 line differs heavily from sportsbook lines are likely to be very popular. Like DFS, we get far more expected value by being right on a less popular pick among the field– the best case scenario is you’re the only one to sweep the board, and keep all of that prize for yourself.
That’s why having access to strong projections is so important. Since not everyone is using the same set, identifying edges where sportsbook lines haven’t moved is more valuable than when they have.
There’s also a major element of crowd psychology here. People love to pick “more” on players, especially stars. For example, on Thursday Night Football in Week 14, “more” picks outnumbered “less” picks nearly three to one:
Tonight in NFL pick 6 @DraftKings the 6/6 paid out 13x. The game total was exceeded by 30% and more picks outnumbered less picks by almost 3-1!
This is what adds depth and strategy to our game. What everyone else is doing affects your results if and when you hit! You need to…
— Jon Aguiar (@JonAguiar) December 8, 2023
Being biased toward the under has long been a solid strategy for betting player props, because public money drives the lines up by betting optimistically. It’s an even bigger edge here, though. If public action drives the traditional betting props up, that will lead to even more people taking the more side in Pick6. By taking the less side in those situations, we’ll move past huge chunks of the field when we’re right.
Contest Selection
As previously mentioned, we don’t get to select specific contests or tournaments with Pick6. What we do get to choose, is how many choices we make on a given slate. We’re competing against players who made the number of selections we did, giving us some control.
With other “pick ’em” sites, the tradeoff has been between variance and profit. Essentially (assuming the same rate of correct selections) picking more choices leads to more profit over time, but greater swings in the bankroll.
That will likely be the case with Pick6, too. However, selecting more or less contrarian choices also influences the variance. IF you were to build a six-selection card of lines that moved considerably on Sportsbooks, you likely have a greater chance of going 6/6 — but a lower payout if you do.
On the other hand, going 4/4 on the opposite side of the line movement might be less likely to hit, but probably pays out considerably more even with fewer selections.
We can’t say for sure what typical payouts are likely to be. However, DraftKings does include an “estimated payout” feature that should give you a rough estimate. They currently have entries going 6/6 estimated at a 35:1 payout. Of course, that number could vary greatly based on how unique your correct selections are.
Final Thoughts on DraftKings Pick6
While I’m unfortunately not in a state where Pick6 is available — at least not yet — I’m hopeful that changes soon. This is an exciting new idea, with something to offer for both hardcore grinders and casual players who just want to make a few selections on their favorite players.
It will be interesting to see how the strategy evolves over time. Will the payouts be enough to attract sharp players who make more optimal decisions? Or will there always be an edge on selecting “less” with our picks? We’ll continue to cover those developments at FantasyLabs, with more strategy articles to come.
