UFC Freedom 250 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for the White House Card

Holding a UFC event on the White House lawn is strange in a lot of ways. One of the lesser-talked-about reasons is that the seven-fight card makes for quite a unique DFS slate. This one is Captain Mode only on DK, which functions like showdown slates in the NFL.

We’re rostering six total spots: five regular fighters plus one “captain” who costs 1.5x his base salary but scores 1.5x the points. For the purpose of this article, I’ll be listing fighters based on their base salary but discussing their viability as a Captain as applicable.

The card is headlined by a pair of title fights – the lightweight championship between Ilia Topuria and interim champion Justin Gaethje and an interim heavyweight title fight between Ciryl Gane and Alex Pereira, who is looking to become the UFC’s first-ever three-division champion. It all goes down at 8:00 p.m. on Sunday night, so we’ve got an extra day to build and enter lineups this time around.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Ilia Topuria ($9,600) vs. Justin Gaethje ($5,400)

The main event of the historic White House card features lightweight champion Ilia Topuria making the first defense of his second title against interim champion Justin Gaethje. The 37-year-old Gaethje has been in this position before, winning an interim title before losing to the now-legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov. This is probably the last call for Gaethje in terms of title hopes – and the opponent is less than optimal.

Topuria was anointed a future champion well before he won his first title at featherweight, and he vanquished two of that division’s top-three all-time fighters, both via knockout. Then he moved up to lightweight and needed less than half a round to beat former champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant title. It’s noteworthy that two of his three title wins have been over fighters who finished Gaethje.

It’s hard to see much of a stylistic edge for Gaethje in this fight, as his striking has gotten sloppy as he’s aged and he’s relied on power and grit more than technical skill. Topuria is a much cleaner striker, with massive power and elite (64%) significant strike defense. Gaethje is probably the better pure wrestler, but he’s landed just one takedown per nine rounds in the UFC – and would likely be outclassed on the mat by the jiu-jitsu of Topuria.

Topuria is a lock-and-load play here, with -145 odds to win in the first two rounds, plus the upside of 25 minutes to work if he doesn’t get a finish. He’s probably too expensive for the Captain slot unless you feel strongly about some big underdogs, as salary is extremely tight, but you want some kind of exposure.

Co-Main Event

Ciryl Gane ($7,600) vs. Alex Pereira ($7,400)

In contrast, the other title fight at the White House is essentially a pick ’em, with Alex Pereira opening around +150 when the fight was announced before being bet way down. “Poatan” is looking to become the first UFC fighter to win titles (interim in this case) in three divisions, as he’s previously held titles at middleweight and light heavyweight.

This is a striker vs. striker matchup against Ciryl Gane, a former interim champion who is now 0-2-1 in undisputed title fights. The “1” is notable there, as it was his eye poke on Tom Aspinall that led to the interim title being needed here.

Both men come from kickboxing backgrounds – though Pereira at a much higher level – with precise striking and generally strong defense. Pereira has shown more power so far, though that has come at lighter weight classes. He never looked small at 205 and was absolutely massive at middleweight, but heavyweight might be a bridge too far.

With that said, both men are 6’4″ with similar reach, and Gane typically weighs in around 245 lbs for his bouts without cutting weight. Pereira was probably entering the cage at 230 lbs or so in past fights, so I don’t expect the size discrepancy to be too much of a factor. Each of Pereira’s UFC losses can be written off as a function of a busy schedule with heavy weight cuts, with both factors removed here.

I’m leaning toward Pereira here, but from a strategy standpoint I’ll be featuring this fight in all of my lineups. Given the price points and -220 stoppage odds, it’s highly likely the winner ends up in the optimal lineup. I prefer taking a shot on a true underdog in my Captain spot for strategic reasons – you have to play one anyway, and the salary is much needed – but either heavyweight would be a solid option as well.

The Easy Chalk

Mauricio Ruffy ($10,000)

The longest odds on the slate belong to Mauricio Ruffy, who is taking on Michael Chandler ($5,000) in what amounts to a squash match. Chandler turns 40 this summer, is 1-5 over his last six, and has been finished in three of those losses. Ruffy is 4-1 in the UFC with three knockouts, plus a knockdown in his lone decision win.

The question for DFS is whether Ruffy can pile up enough volume or win quickly enough to justify his massive salary. It’s almost impossible to roster him in the Captain spot, but even playing him as a regular fighter is highly restrictive and forces two long-shot underdogs.

Even against this version of Chandler, a first-minute win is fairly unlikely, and Ruffy doesn’t provide any grappling upside. Thus, the decision on playing him depends on finding two cheap fighters you like. His odds of making the optimal lineup are very strong if we have two big upsets elsewhere.

I’m not especially confident in that scenario and have no interest in rostering Gaethje to facilitate it, but I will have some portion of my lineups with two cheaper options so I can get some Ruffy exposure.

The Upside Play

Bo Nickal ($8,800)

Bo Nickal is either the only fighter on this slate with real grappling upside or, at best, one of two, as he comes in as a strong favorite against Kyle Daukaus ($6,200) in an all-American matchup.

Much of the shine has come off Nickal as a prospect, in part due to his fairly infrequent appearances but also due to his upset loss to Renier de Ridder. That was a difficult stylistic matchup against a much bigger opponent who was both a striking threat and an elite submission grappler, while Daukaus is at best one of those things.

Nicknamed “The D’Arce Knight” for the choke that he’s won seven fights with, he has 11 total submission wins across 14 wins as a pro. I’m not sure if that’s enough to deter Nickal from grappling, though, as he landed two takedowns on legendary BJJ practitioner Rodolfo Viera on three attempts before knocking him out.

That was good for over 100 DraftKings points, and a similar performance at his price tag would probably qualify for the optimal lineup. I do worry that he chooses to test his improving striking rather than grapple, though, as Daukaus is a capable striker who likely won’t get finished with strikes early.

Still, the upside is just as high as fighters like Ruffy and Topuria, who are unlikely to land takedowns. That comes despite a cheaper salary, and he’s probably the most expensive fighter I’d consider for the Captain spot. Ruffy or Topuria could easily have a more impressive performance that doesn’t score as well in DFS, which is all that matters for our purposes.

The Value Play

Steve Garcia ($6,600)

The combination of line movement and salary dynamics means Garcia might be the most owned fighter on the slate this Sunday. He’s moved from +170 to about +125 for his fight against Diego Lopes ($7,400) that opens the UFC 250 proceedings and is an extremely popular underdog for both betting and DFS.

For good reason, though, as Garcia has massive power and is taking on a reckless fighter known for taking a lot of damage. Garcia has won seven straight fights, with six of those coming via knockout, and he scored a knockdown in the decision win. Lopes has never been finished in the UFC but has two prior knockout losses. He also absorbs more than 4.5 significant strikes per minute with just a 45% defense rate.

Garcia is risky, as we could just as easily make a case for the dangerous Lopes finishing Garcia early or using his grappling to deny Garcia many point-scoring opportunities. However, relative to his salary, he might be the best play on the slate. He’s an excellent, if risky, Captain as well. His upside is as high as any three-round fighter on the slate, and rostering him there as opposed to a favorite opens up a ton of salary.

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The Contrarian Choice

Derrick Lewis ($6,000)

Speaking of risky bets, the last fight added to this card features the always-volatile Derrick Lewis. He was matched up with Josh Hokit ($9,000) allegedly at U.S. President Donald Trump’s request, after Trump was in the building for Hokit’s fight-of-the-night brawl against Curtis Blaydes in April.

Hokit, a former All-American wrestler, chose to stand and brawl with Blaydes, winning a relatively close decision but absorbing 174 significant strikes in the process. He took a lot of damage in that fight, so it will be interesting to see if he’s truly fully recovered just 8 weeks later. Lewis is the UFC’s all-time record holder for most knockout victories and has never landed more than 53 significant strikes in a fight without putting his opponent out.

Lewis also looked terrible in his last fight, landing just eight significant strikes before effectively quitting against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. His motivation and fitness have always been an issue, with Lewis occasionally content to show up and collect a paycheck without much real effort to win. The hope here is that the magnitude of the event – or perhaps Hokit’s constant, unintelligible trash talk – gives us the best version of “The Black Beast.”

He could still lose even at 100%, as Hokit returning to his grappling base wouldn’t be a surprise here. Still, Lewis is much bigger than Hokit and has successfully denied grapplers in the past. I’m almost never going to invest in Lewis as a favorite since he could always lay an egg, but as an underdog with a salary this cheap, he could break the slate.

The Swing Fights

Sean O’Malley ($9,200) vs. Aiemann Zahabi ($5,800)

The bantamweight “feature bout” preceding the title fights isn’t a “swing fight” in the traditional sense, as the odds are fairly wide for O’Malley. However, there is a case for both men thanks to the salary dynamics at play.

This is the only fight on the card favored to go to a decision, which makes Zahabi at just $5,800 an interesting option. It wouldn’t shock me if Zahabi made the optimal lineup in a decision loss, especially if the rest of the heavy favorites held serve at the top of the slate. He scores well on a per-minute basis with 4.54 significant strikes landed per minute, and this should be a pure striking match against O’Malley unless Zahabi lands takedowns. That’s fairly unlikely, with Zahabi landing just one takedown in ten previous UFC bouts.

On the other side, O’Malley averages more than six significant strikes per minute despite often facing grapplers, with knockouts in more than half of his 11 UFC wins. He could easily eclipse 100 significant strikes landed in a 15-minute fight against Zahabi if the latter doesn’t wish to force the grappling. While Zahabi has never been finished, he’s also been knocked down in consecutive fights prior to this one.

Given the odds of this going to a decision, O’Malley will probably be the least popular favorite on the slate, making him an excellent GPP option, as he has upside even without needing a finish. Zahabi is a great cash game play thanks to his floor and could even be used in the Captain spot in a “stars and scrubs”-style build.

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Pictured: Ilia Topuria
Photo Credit: Imagn