The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $10,800 Los Angeles Dodgers (-206) at Chicago White Sox
Yamamoto was given the richest contract for a pitcher in history before ever putting on an MLB uniform, but he has lived up to the massive expectations. He was an ace pitcher for the Dodgers in his first two seasons, and he helped propel the team to two World Series rings. He’s off to another strong start this season, posting a 2.68 ERA through his first 12 starts.
Some of Yamamoto’s advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive as in previous years, but he’s still racking up plenty of strikeouts. He’s averaging just under a strikeout per nine innings, while his chase and whiff rates are still comfortably above average. Yamamoto has also cut way down on his walks in 2025, with his BB% putting him in the 94th percentile.
Yamamoto will square off with the resurgent White Sox on Saturday. Chicago isn’t nearly the same doormat that they’ve been in recent years, but Yamamoto is still getting plenty of respect. He’s a -206 favorite, while the White Sox are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.82 (per the Trends tool).
The White Sox also have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, so Yamamoto brings even more to the table than usual. His $10,800 price tag is expensive, but he’s the safest bet at pitcher on Saturday’s slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea (L) $5,900 New York Mets (-110) vs. Atlanta Braves
Manaea is on the complete opposite end of the pricing spectrum from Yamamoto. He’s one of the cheapest pitchers of the day, and there’s no guarantee he even starts for the Mets. He’s yet to make an appearance as a traditional starter, with all 14 of his outings coming from the bullpen.
That said, serving as a “follower” is actually a good thing for fantasy purposes. You need to make it through the fifth inning to qualify for a win, so showing up an inning or two later increases your likelihood of factoring into the decision.
Manaea also enters this contest in good recent form. He was shaky to start the year while dealing with diminished velocity, but he’s been much more impressive in recent outings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games despite earning just one win.
Manaea gets to face off with a Braves’ lineup that is less imposing than usual without Ronald Acuna. Their remaining top hitters are primarily left-handed, with the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies serving as the lone exception.
Ultimately, Manaea leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus in our MLB Models. He’s a great way to save some salary at SP2 without sacrificing a ton of value.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Ranger Suarez (L) $8,800 Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Texas Rangers
Suarez was a marquee offseason acquisition for the Red Sox, but he got off to a slow start in Boston. Fortunately, he’s started to turn things around. He had one of his best outings of the season in his last start, and he had 10 strikeouts two starts ago. Suarez gets a matchup vs. the Rangers on Saturday, and they have the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season. It gives him an excellent ceiling for his price tag, and he’s third on the slate in K Prediction.
Bubba Chandler (R) $6,200 Pittsburgh Pirates (-132) vs. Miami Marlins
Chandler is a big-time pitching prospect who is eventually expected to form a potent 1-2 punch with Paul Skenes. That said, Chandler is still looking to translate his potential into success at the MLB level. He has electric stuff, but he’s walked way too many batters en route to a 4.91 ERA. Perhaps a matchup vs. the Marlins will help kick start Chandler’s campaign. They’re 21st in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and Chandler is the fourth-largest favorite on the slate.
Joey Cantillo (L) $6,800 Cleveland Guardians (+127) vs. Detroit Tigers
Cantillo has the unenviable task of going against Tarik Skubal on Saturday, who will make his return from the IL. That makes him a pretty clear underdog, but the Tigers aren’t exactly a juggernaut on offense. They’re middle of the pack against left-handed pitchers, and they’re 23rd in the league in runs per game. Cantillo ranks third in THE BAT X in terms of projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Manaea and Chandler, and he should check in with minimal ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
It’s never a huge shocker when the Dodgers show up with the top stack of the day. They have an elite offense, ranking first in the league in runs per game and fourth in homers. Turns out, spending hundreds of millions of dollars on players can be a winning strategy.
That said, the Dodgers don’t exactly jump off the page on Saturday. Their 4.8 implied run total is merely the fifth-highest on the slate despite some pretty gaudy price tags. That could result in lower ownership than usual.
They’ll square off with Sean Burke, who is the definition of an average pitcher. He ranks near the middle of the pack in nearly every metric across the board, including his 3.70 xERA.
However, Burke is right-handed, and the Dodgers feast on righties. They have a 125 wRC+ in that split as a team, which is the top mark in the league by a wide margin. Their top six batters have been particularly potent in that split dating back to the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
Ultimately, there’s no denying the Dodgers’ upside. On a slate with plenty of pitching value, paying up for the Dodgers’ bats could pay dividends.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Stowers, OF/1B ($3,400) Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (Bubba Chandler)
While Chandler figures to be a stud pitcher at some point, that might still be a ways away. The Marlins are implied for a respectable 4.4 runs in this matchup, and Stowers stands out as a strong value option.
He’s priced at $3,400 with eligibility at 1B and in the outfield, and he has plenty of upside at that figure. He owns a .382 wOBA and .269 ISO against right-handers since the start of last season, and he’s clubbed 30 total homers in that time frame (163 games). He also ranks in the 89th percentile for hard-hit rate, and Chandler has allowed plenty of hard contact in his MLB tenure.
Bo Bichette, SS ($3,900) New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (Martin Perez)
Bichette’s signing has been nothing short of a disaster for the Mets. However, he is starting to show some signs of life. He clubbed two homers and had six RBIs on Friday, and he also homered on Thursday. His numbers are way up in June, so it’s possible he’s getting ready for a mid-season breakout.
Bichette will get a matchup vs. a southpaw on Saturday, and he has always been at his best in that split. He posted a 143 wRC+ and a .238 ISO against lefties last season, and even in a dreadful 2026, he’s posted a 115 wRC+. Bichette is still priced at a discount compared to where he was at the start of the year, and he’s second among shortstops in projected Plus/Minus in our blended projection set.
Corbin Carroll, OF ($5,900) Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (Rhett Lowder)
Carroll is not cheap on Saturday, but he stands out as one of the top overall options on offense. The Diamondbacks’ 4.9 implied team total is tied for second-highest on the slate, and Carroll trails only Ohtani in terms of ceiling projection.
Carroll will be on the positive side of his splits against Rhett Lowder, who is an exploitable matchup. He’s pitched to a 5.01 ERA and 5.02 xERA this season, and he’s averaged nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Lowder is tough to take deep – 0.44 homers per nine innings in 2026 – but Carroll can still do plenty of damage.
Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Photo Credit: Imagn
