The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday presents a two-game slate that begins at 1pm ET. The Jazz and Clippers are playing Game 7 while the Celtics and Wizards commence their second-round series. The former matchup offers more certainty due to the six-game sample, which translates well in cash games. The Eastern Conference matchup offers uncertainty and intrigue as well as the higher Vegas total. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall and Chris Paul are the two most expensive players for the second straight slate. They cost the same on FanDuel again, and Wall costs $600 more on DraftKings.
Much of what was written in Friday’s breakdown is applicable today. Here’s what I wrote regarding Paul:
The Clippers could be eliminated tonight, which increases the likelihood Paul exceeds his normal minutes. When the Clippers were eliminated from the postseason in 2015, Paul played 45 minutes in a 13-point loss and three other starters played at least 39 minutes. . . . Paul appears to carry less risk in cash-game settings, and because he’s cheaper on DraftKings he may be the one who is higher-owned (Pro Subscribers can track ownership shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard).
Paul was higher owned compared to Wall in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on Friday, likely due to the salary difference.
The Wizards are once again road underdogs implied to score fewer than 108 points. As noted in Friday’s breakdown, Wall has struggled under such circumstances this season and averaged 43.53 DraftKings points with a 31.8 percent Consistency Rating. As you can tell from the image above, Wall recorded 64.25 DraftKings points on Friday — the second time he exceeded 51 DraftKings points in 22 chances (per the Trends tool). Wall also played 44 minutes in the closeout game because Bradley Beal picked up two fouls in the first and third quarters.
Among players available on today’s slate, Wall ranks first in minutes per game this postseason, and he’s tied with Paul for highest usage rate at 31.5 percent. Paul has recorded a better assist and rebound rate than Wall, and when Blake Griffin has been off the court Paul has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute (per the On/Off tool), slightly better than Wall’s 1.30 DraftKings points per minute.
Paul hasn’t recorded fewer than 47 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he’s played at least 37 minutes in games Griffin has missed. Wall’s averaged 41.19 DraftKings points in four games against the Celtics this season, yet he leads all guards on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and it’s possible he’s guarded by Isaiah Thomas for a majority of the game. Paul’s incredible consistency translates favorably in cash games, and Wall’s higher salary could reduce his ownership in GPPs, where he may offer a higher ceiling than Paul.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Austin Rivers started and played 34.6 minutes in Game 6 despite missing a month with a hamstring injury. Coach Doc Rivers has bemoaned the fact that the Clippers lack ball handlers aside from Paul, and his son alleviated that concern last Friday. Because the alternatives in the starting lineup are Paul Pierce and Marreese Speights, Rivers is a solid bet to start and exceed 30 minutes once more. If you’re not going to stack Paul and Wall on FanDuel, then consider Rivers, who offers a 98 percent Bargain Rating, as a viable PG2.
Fast Break
Isaiah Thomas: The Player Models don’t know that Thomas attended his sister’s funeral yesterday nor the impact that could have on his performance. He’s converted 9-of-45 3-pointers in the postseason, but against the Wizards in four regular season games Thomas averaged 47.13 DraftKings points despite shooting 40.0 percent from the field. Wall and Paul were higher-owned on Friday, and that may be the case today. Thomas’ success against the Wizards, combined with his +5.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus as a home favorite when the Celtics have been implied to score at least 110 points, makes him a solid pivot from the obvious choices at point guard.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Bradley Beal is the most expensive shooting guard on the slate. When he shared the court with Avery Bradley during the regular season, Beal converted 6-of-22 shots, and against the Celtics in four games Beal averaged 28.8 minutes per game — a 10-minute difference from his postseason average of 38.5 minutes per game. He’s the only shooting guard on FanDuel with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Wizards’ offense in the first round revolved around him and Wall. The shooting pool is shallow enough to rely on Beal in FanDuel, and he finished the first round with three straight games of at least 44.0 FanDuel points.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Jamal Crawford played more minutes than J.J. Redick in Game 6, and that may be an indication of the trust coach Rivers has in Crawford. If we use that game as a blueprint for predicting minutes, Crawford, who costs $3,100 on FanDuel and has played at least 23 minutes in each of the first six games, should stand a reasonable chance of nearing 30 minutes. Nonetheless, Crawford possesses a shaky floor that’s heavily reliant on scoring.
Marcus Smart and Beal lead all shooting guards with 91 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month, and Smart has provided at least 22.5 DraftKings points in every game in the first round. He’s played at least 30 minutes in the non-blowouts, and regardless of who starts at power forward Smart will likely continue to play minutes comparable to the rest of the starters. When the Celtics have faced an opponent with a positive pace differential, Smart has averaged 27.29 DraftKings points and a 69.2 percent Consistency.
Fast Break
Avery Bradley: In two games against the Wizards this season, Bradley recorded 34.75 DraftKings points and 41.25 DraftKings points. His salary-implied point total is 28.15 DraftKings points today, and he played more minutes than any other Celtic in the first round.
Small Forwards
Stud
Gordon Hayward is the most expensive small forward on the slate by at least $2,300, and he hasn’t recorded fewer than 45.0 FanDuel points in the last three games he’s played at least 40 minutes. When the Jazz have been road underdogs this season, Hayward’s underachieved:
Hayward produced 48.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, easily providing value as a road underdog. He’s a near lock to play more than 40 minutes in Game 7, and he’s projected to be the highest-owned small forward in FanDuel GPPs.
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Otto Porter costs $4,900 on FanDuel, and he finished the first round with three straight games of at least 23.8 FanDuel points. His best game of the regular season occurred against the Celtics, a 68.8-point performance on FanDuel in November. He followed that up with 40.7 points, but over the final two games Porter registered a cumulative 25.4 FanDuel points against the Celtics. Should the Celtics attempt to hide Thomas on Porter, the Wizards’ starting small forward may become the focal point of the offense.
Fast Break
Jae Crowder: Dating back to last season, Crowder has averaged 33.29 DraftKings points in seven games against the Wizards, surpassing today’s salary-implied point total by 7.64 points. He recorded a team-best DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Wizards this season, and he is one of four Celtics to exceed salary-based expectations every time:
Power Forwards
Stud
No power forward-only eligible player costs more than $6,000, and only one such player is currently projected to play more than 20 minutes. Hayward is dual-eligible on DraftKings, where he leads power forwards in nearly every category.
Value
The Celtics’ starting power forward may offer substantial value, but we don’t know who that will be yet. Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, and Kelly Olynyk are potential candidates, and that’s if Gerald Green doesn’t remain in the starting lineup.
It’s unclear if Johnson will rejoin the rotation or starting lineup, but his salary has been reduced to no more than $2,500. Jerebko is the cheapest among the three, and Olynyk offers the safest floor as he played 115 minutes in the first round while Johnson and Jerebko played a combined 84 minutes. Olynyk also averaged 22.2 minutes in four games against the Wizards this season and replaced Johnson in the second-half starting lineup in the third meeting.
The Celtics’ starting lineup should be announced before the slate locks, giving you ample time to decide between the three choices listed above.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris: His 23.4 percent rebound rate against the Celtics was his highest mark against any team this season (minimum four games). When the Wizards have been underdogs this season, Morris has averaged a +5.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s likely to play more minutes than the field, including Derrick Favors, who has been converted into a backup center.
Centers
Studs
Rudy Gobert and Al Horford are the most expensive centers for the second straight slate, and Gobert has been priced above $9,000 on FanDuel for the eighth time all year.
Gobert suffered a mild ankle sprain late in Game 6 and played fewer than three minutes in the fourth quarter. He said he’ll play today, but after he missed two games with a hyperextended left knee it’s unclear how much he’ll be limited on the court. (Favors stands to benefit if Gobert aggravates any of the injuries to his left leg, making him something of a tournament option.) Gobert is the third-most expensive player on FanDuel, but his salary is cheap enough on DraftKings ($7,800) to consider utilizing in cash games despite the injury concerns.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
In three games against the Wizards this season, Horford has converted 62.9 percent of his field goal attempts, and Marcin Gortat was Horford’s primary defender. The Celtics center nearly recorded a triple-double in all six of the first-round games, and centers facing the Wizards this season have averaged a +5.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes at home. Horford’s averaged a +6.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Wizards this season, and when the Celtics have played at the TD Garden he has supplied a team-best +5.99 Draftkings Plus/Minus on 76.3 percent Consistency.
Value
The Wizards recorded a season-high 30.4 percent offensive rebound rate and 21.3 second-chance points against the Celtics during the regular season. Marcin Gortat‘s 15.4 percent offensive rebound rate ranked as his best mark against an opponent (minimum four games). In three games against the Celtics with Ian Mahinmi sidelined, Gortat produced 30.75, 23.75, and 27 DraftKings points. In the fourth game (in which Mahinmi was available), Gortat was limited to 13 DraftKings points in 12 minutes. Mahinmi will not play today, leaving Gortat as the main center for the Wizards.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: He’s slightly cheaper than Gobert and Favors on DraftKings and significantly cheaper than both on FanDuel. According to the DFS Ownership Dashboard, he was owned in less than 10 percent of DraftKings GPPs on Monday while Gobert and Horford registered 30 percent ownership:
Jordan hasn’t exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games on FanDuel, causing his salary to drop to $7,200, which is at least $1,100 cheaper than Horford and Gobert’s salaries.
Jordan: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
