The PGA TOUR heads to Mexico this week for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta (par 71, 7,337 yards, paspalum greens), which has been the home of the Mexico Open since its inception in 2022. Brian Campbell (-20) defeated Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff to win last year’s Mexico Open. This week’s field consists of 120 players, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
Also available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Doug Ghim ($9,400)
None of the three $10,000 players are musts this week, and starting your lineup with a few $9,000 options is my preferred strategy for cash games. Ghim is the best of the group and way underpriced as just the seventh-most expensive player in the field. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Ghim carries the third-best odds to win the Mexico Open at +1800. The veteran has made 2 of 3 cuts at Vidanta Vallarta, with a T8 coming in his last visit in 2024. Since then, Ghim has moved up 63 spots in the world golf rankings to No. 97. Ghim has been awesome over the last few months, making 12 of his last 14 cuts and finishing inside the top 20 at five straight events, including a runner-up finish at the Bank of Utah Championship earlier this month. Ghim ranks fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and 23rd in par 3 performance this season, which is a great sign for Vidanta Vallarta, as this is a rare par 71 that presents five par 3s. 3-of-4 winners at Vidanta Vallarta have finished the event in the top three in par-3 performance.
Corey Conners ($9,300)
Conners was in the mix at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this past week, finishing T3. The Canadian shot an 8-under 63 in the first round at Port Royal, and he ranked top eight in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach for the tournament. Conners has made nine cuts in a row, and he has finished inside the top 25 four times during this span. Conners has never competed at Vidanta Vallarta before, but this track was designed by Greg Norman, and Conners is a two-time winner at the Norman-designed TPC San Antonio. Conners ranks fifth in this field in Strokes Gained per round at Norman courses, and he should have a great Mexico Open debut this week.
Harry Hall ($9,100)
Hall has finished inside the top 35 in all three of his starts at Vidanta Vallarta, most notably with a T10 in 2023. Hall has shot as low as a 7-under 64 at this course, and after a rough patch in the summer, Hall has found his form again, finishing T5, T24, and T13 in his last three starts. That most recent finish came at the Bank of Utah Championship, and Hall gained strokes across the board at the Black Desert Resort that week. Hall has shot under par in all but one of his last 12 rounds, and he should finish high on the leaderboard at Vidanta Vallarta.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Zachary Bauchou ($8,900)
Bauchou missed the cut in his lone start at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023, but this is rather irrelevant, as Bauchou was just the 1,800th-ranked player in the world at the time, and he now returns to Mexico sitting 141st. Bauchou has only missed one cut in his last seven starts with five top-25 finishes during this stretch. Bauchou finished T9 at the Baycurrent Classic in his last start, and he ranks fifth in SG: Total when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds.
Andrew Novak ($8,100)
Novak has never missed a cut in three starts at Vidanta Vallarta, with two top-15 finishes. The 31-year-old has shot under par in 9 of 12 rounds at the par 71, and he ranks eighth in this field in Strokes Gained per round at Norman courses. Novak has finished T7, T17, and T43 in his last three starts entering this week while gaining strokes on approach at all these events. Novak brings great upside at Vidanta Vallarta in this type of form, and he is a standout play at only $8,100. Novak is just the 20th-most expensive player in the field, but his +3200 odds to win the Mexico Open on DraftKings Sportsbook are the ninth-best on the board.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Kevin Roy ($7,500)
Roy is riding a streak of nine made cuts that has featured seven finishes of T32 or better. The veteran ranks fourth in SG: Total when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, and now he heads to Vidanta Vallarta, where he has finished T18 and T17 in two starts. Roy has shot under par in all but one of his eight rounds at this par 71, and he ranks 12th in this field in Strokes Gained per round at Vidanta Vallarta. Roy was priced all the way up to a career-high $9,700 for last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and he is a steal at only $7,500.
Tony Finau ($7,300)
After missing two cuts in a row, Finau rebounded with a T41 finish at the Baycurrent Classic earlier this month. The six-time PGA TOUR winner has made seven of his past 10 cuts, and this is an extremely important stretch of golf for Finau, as he sits 107th in the FedEx Cup Fall standings. Only the top 100 retain their PGA TOUR cards for next season, and Finau needs to produce a quality finish at Vidanta Vallarta this week. Luckily, the 37-year-old has been awesome at this par 71, finishing runner-up, first, and T13 in three starts. Finau won by three shots at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023, and he also won the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, which was played at Grand Reserve Golf Club, another course that features paspalum greens. Finau ranks second in this field in Strokes Gained per round at tracks that present paspalum greens, and the veteran is a great bargain at this low salary. Notably, this is the first time Finau has ever been priced under $10,000 on DraftKings for a Mexico Open.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,100)
Rodgers has made 19 of 25 cuts this season, including three in a row entering this week. The Stanford product has cracked the top 30 twice during this cut streak, and Rodgers shouldn’t slow down at Vidanta Vallarta. Rodgers has finished T10, T10, T6, and T25 in his four starts at this par 71. Rodgers has shot under par in all but one of his 16 rounds here, and he ranks eighth in this field in Strokes Gained per round at Vidanta Vallarta.
DraftKings $6,000 Range
Takumi Kanaya ($6,900)
Kanaya has made four consecutive cuts, and he has produced two top-25 finishes along the way. Kanaya has shot under par in 14 straight rounds, and he ranks 19th in SG: Putting for the season. Kanaya now travels to Vidanta Vallarta, where he finished T32 in his first start at the venue last season. Kanaya has the potential to outdo this performance, and he is a strong value play at only $6,900, which is a big drop from his $7,700 salary for last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Danny Walker ($6,800)
Walker had an impressive Mexico Open debut last season, finishing T13 at Vidanta Vallarta, including a closing-round 6-under 65. Returning to Mexico in strong form, Walker brings similar upside this week. The 31-year-old has made three of his last four cuts, most recently with a T6 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last week. This marked a season-best finish for Walker, and he tallied a career-low 8-under 63 in his first round at Port Royal Golf Club.
Pictured: Doug Ghim
Photo credit: Imagn
