The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Among studs eligible at point guard only, Trae Young has the highest rating in our top PRO NBA Player Model, the Phan Model. The fifth overall pick out of Oklahoma is fresh off a 32-point, 11-assist, game-winning performance against Philly and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past seven and has a matchup with a Pelicans squad that has allowed the most points (120.7) and assists (28.9) per game since the All-Star break.
Hawks-Pelicans has an eye-popping over/under of 242. According to Bet Labs, only 10 games have closed with a total of 242 or higher since 2008, and the over is 6-4 in those games.
- Dewayne Dedmon 0.27
- Alex Len 0.21
- John Collins 0.16
- Taurean Prince 0.14
- Vince Carter 0.10
- DeAndre Bembry -0.01
- Kevin Huerter -0.04
- Kent Bazemore -0.19
Marcus Smart has hit value in seven of his last 10 and is the top value at the position with Kyrie Irving (rest) set to miss. According to our NBA On/Off tool, Smart is second on the Celtics with a 3.3% increase in usage rate when Irving has been off the floor this season.
Smart’s teammate Terry Rozier sees his DraftKings points per game increase by 7.0 with Irving out, but his $6,800 salary still leaves him with a negative Projected Plus/Minus, so the best backup-related backcourt value is actually in Chicago. With Zach LaVine (thigh, knee) out and Kris Dunn (back) doubtful, Shaq Harrison and Ryan Arcidiacono are on track to be the Bulls’ starting backcourt in Toronto, and both project as top-four values on the slate.
James Harden has the top ceiling projection on the slate at the position — but a slightly negative Projected Plus/Minus. The top studs in that metric are Luka Doncic (knee, questionable) at home against Sacramento and DeMar DeRozan on the road in Charlotte.
With Otto Porter (shoulder) also out, it may be more like the Chicago Bullsh-ts tonight, but that’s also good news for Antonio Blakeney, who owns the top Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and costs just $3,400 on DraftKings. Still, I wouldn’t overdo it with Blakeney, whose usage rate was just 14.3% in two prior stints with the starting unit compared to 25.4% in 50 games off the bench.
Lou Williams has just a 45% Consistency Rating in March, but regression is imminent against a Timberwolves squad he’s destroyed for 32.5 points and 5.0 assists per game in two prior meetings this season. Sweet Lou is a top-five rated shooting guard in the Phan Model on DraftKings.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has top-two median and floor projections for his matchup with Houston, besting Harden in both metrics. The Greek Freak has posted a +4.53 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency Rating in March and has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus of the seven players on Tuesday’s slate with a salary of at least $9,000 on DraftKings.
The honors for top usage rate increase in the absence of Irving goes to Gordon Hayward, who has the top Projected Plus/Minus at small forward even with Jayson Tatum (back, questionable) projected to play. Tatum, however, does hold the edge over Hayward in player rating, as he’s the top-rated player at the position in the Phan Model.
Kawhi Leonard is projected to be in a fraction as many lineups as Giannis and LeBron James, giving him the top Leverage Rating at the position on both DraftKings (99%) and FanDuel (96%) for his matchup with Chicago. Leonard makes for a nice stacking partner with some of the Bulls value plays in the event the 13.5-point underdog Bulls find a way to hang around into the fourth quarter.
Despite a usage projection of just 13.4%, Kenrich Williams pops with a top-two player rating at the position on DraftKings for tonight’s projected scoring explosion in New Orleans.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love are neck-and-neck for the top Projected Plus/Minus among studs at power forward. Aldridge is coming off a 48-point, 13-rebound destruction of the Celtics, whom Love draws tonight while Aldridge goes up against the Hornets. Aldridge has been the more volatile DFS play all season, posting a Consistency Rating of just 45% on the year and 40% over his past 10 games while Love has posted marks of 53% and 60%, respectively.
Bobby Portis has posted a 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games and a 67% mark during the month of March. The fourth-year big out of Arkansas is a top-six rated power forward in the Phan Model for tonight’s road date with the Lakers.
While numerous Bulls profile as strong value plays, Lauri Markkanen will likely finish with the best box score. Our NBA Player Models project Markkanen for a usage rate of 28.9% — a full 4 percentage points above his season average.
Despite being the Hawks’ leading scorer at 19.4 points per game on the season and posting a Consistency Rating of 80% over his past 10 games, John Collins is expected to be in fewer than 10% of lineups in what is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the last decade.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the owner of the top ceiling, floor and median projections on Tuesday’s slate as he goes up against the Clippers, and he’s also tied with Doncic with a slate-high 14 Pro Trends. KAT has been straight dogging opponents in March, averaging a +6.83 Plus/Minus and 74% Consistency Rating. According to our Opponent Plus/Minus metric, Towns also has the best matchup on the slate at the position as he goes against the inexperienced Ivica Zubac and undersized Montrezl Harrell.
With Trevor Ariza (groin, doubtful) banged up, Thomas Bryant has reclaimed his spot at the 5 in the Wizards starting unit, shifting Portis to the 4. Bryant is averaging 10.5 points and 6.2 rebounds in 21.6 minutes as a starter this season but has played over 35 minutes in his last two starts sans Ariza. Our NBA Player Models have Bryant projected for 32.5 minutes Tuesday night, giving him the top Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
JaVale McGee has averaged 28.5 minutes per game over his past seven games and has made the most of it, averaging 15.3 points, 12.1 rebounds and 3.0 blocks while exceeding salary-based expectations each time. McGee is projected to be owned in less than half as many lineups as Bryant and could be a worthwhile (albeit more expensive) pivot in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports