Each year, rookies present some of the best values in fantasy football drafts. That’s particularly true in formats like Best Ball, which are heavily weighted towards late-season performance. Rookies tend to earn more responsibilities as the year progresses, so their production tends to increase in the important playoff weeks.
Luther Burden was the perfect encapsulation of that dynamic last year. He was basically a non-factor in the early portion of the year, but the teams that were lucky enough to advance to the playoffs with him on their roster were rewarded in a big way in the playoffs. He turned in useful performances in all three “playoff” weeks, including a massive WR1 finish in Week 17. Unsurprisingly, he found himself on the winning roster in Underdog’s flagship Best Ball Mania contest.
Identifying the breakout rookies is easier said than done, but Jeremiyah Love is near the top of the list in 2026-27. He was the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and he’s considered an elite prospect at the RB position.
Can he take the league by storm, or will there be some growing pains? Let’s make the case for and against Love before delivering our final verdict.
The Case For Love
If you were going to create a modern NFL running back in a lab, he’d probably look pretty similar to Love. He’s big enough at 6’0” and 212 lbs, and he brings elite athleticism to the table. He ranks in the 99th percentile for 40-yard dash time and 98th percentile for Speed Score (per Player Profiler), and he was a walking big play in college. Love had 23 runs of at least 15 yards in his final collegiate season, including at least one in all but one game.
As you’d expect for the third pick in the draft, Love also has the statistics to back it up. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt in each of his final two years, and he had 1,372 rushing yards in 12 games in his final season. Love ultimately finished third in the Heisman Trophy race in 2025 and was a unanimous All-American.
Love doesn’t just do damage with his legs. He also has the potential to be an elite pass-catching RB at the NFL level. His 10.5% target share at Notre Dame puts him in the 76th percentile for running backs, and he averaged 10.4 yards per reception in his final collegiate season.
The fact that Love was drafted third overall should give him plenty of opportunities to put his immense talent on display immediately. Teams don’t typically draft players that highly not to feature them. Here’s how RBs drafted in the top half of the first round have fared over the past 10 years:
- Ashton Jeanty (sixth overall, 2025): 321 touches, 1,321 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns, RB13 fantasy finish
- Bijan Robinson (eighth overall, 2023): 272 touches, 1,463 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns, RB9 fantasy finish
- Jahmyr Gibbs (12th overall, 2023): 234 touches, 1,261 scrimmage yards, 12 touchdowns, RB10 fantasy finish
- Saquon Barkley (second overall, 2018): 352 touches, 2,028 scrimmage yards, 15 touchdowns, RB2 fantasy finish
- Leonard Fournette (fourth overall, 2017): 304 touches, 1,342 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns, RB8 fantasy finish
- Christian McCaffrey (eighth overall, 2017): 197 touches, 1,086 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns, RB11 fantasy finish
- Ezekiel Elliott (fourth overall, 2016): 354 touches, 1,994 scrimmage yards, 16 touchdowns, RB2 fantasy finish
- Todd Gurley (10th overall, 2015): 250 touches (13 games), 1,294 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns, RB7 fantasy finish
- Melvin Gordon (15th overall, 2015): 217 touches, 833 scrimmage yards, zero touchdowns, RB50 fantasy finish
Outside of Gordon, that’s a whole lot of success stories. Barkley and Elliott – two guys drafted very comparably to Love – both turned in RB2 seasons in 0.5-PPR scoring as rookies. Four other rookies finished inside the top 10, while two others just missed. That’s a great list of comparables for Love, who is currently coming off the board as RB13 on both Underdog and DraftKings. If he can follow in the footsteps of previously high-drafted RBs, he could definitely return value on that number.
The Case Against Love
While there’s no denying Love’s talent, it’s hard to imagine a worse set of circumstances for a rookie running back. The running back position is one of the most situation-dependent in the NFL, and Love is going to be fighting an uphill battle on that front next season.
Let’s start with the competition for touches. While most rookie RBs are clear-cut bell-cow backs right out of the gates, Love might not be so fortunate. The team added Tyler Allgeier this offseason, while James Conner and Trey Benson are also still around. All three have the potential to eat into Love’s workload, with Allgeier specifically a threat around the goal line. The Falcons preferred him to Robinson inside the five-yard line, and it’s possible he has the same role with the Cardinals.
The Cardinals could also face a ton of negative game scripts next season. They play in the toughest division in football by a mile, with the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers all expected playoff teams in 2026-27. The rest of the schedule isn’t much easier, giving the Cardinals a Vegas win total of just 3.5. That’s the lowest mark in the league, with the Dolphins (4.5 wins) the only other team below 5.5.
Love’s work as a pass-catcher should help offset some of those concerns, but it’s currently unclear who he’ll be catching passes from. Jacoby Brissett is expected to be the team’s starting quarterback, but he’s currently holding out for an extension. If that doesn’t happen, Gardner Minshew or Carson Beck would be the next men up, and neither of them inspires much confidence.
Add it all up, and it’s going to be a rough year for Arizona. They’re clearly positioning themselves to land a top QB in the 2027 NFL Draft, and with that in mind, how much tread do they want to put on their rookie RBs’ tires? Getting him acclimated to the league and ready to roll for the following season could be the priority, so a season with 300+ touches might not be in the cards.
The Verdict
Love is one of the biggest wild cards in drafts at the moment. He’s not quite as expensive as Jeanty was last year, largely due to the Raiders’ rookie disappointing in his first season. Love’s circumstances might be even worse than Jeanty’s, which has resulted in his price tag settling outside of the top two rounds. His ADP checks in at 24.7 on Underdog and 27.3 on DraftKings, which are pretty reasonable for a player of his caliber.
Our expert rankers are split on Love. Sean Koerner sees him as a slight value at those figures, ranking Love at No. 22 overall. However, Chris Gimino is far more bearish on Love, ranking him all the way down at 39th overall.
I am more aligned with Gimino for the upcoming season. Love is still an extremely valuable dynasty asset, but I don’t believe he’s poised for a huge year. The Cardinals aren’t playing for anything, so it makes no sense to run him into the ground. I would rather take a chance on some of the more established players in the same price range.
Pictured: Jeremiyah Love
Photo Credit: Imagn
