The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
The Wizards are easily the most dysfunctional team in the NBA right now. They’re apparently getting into heated fights at practice, John Wall and Bradley Beal are both on the trading block and the best part is Dwight Howard hasn’t even gotten involved yet! The only way this could get any better is if they signed Carmelo Anthony.
That said, tonight’s game between the Wizards and Clippers is expected to be the best on the slate from a fantasy perspective: The total of 232.5 points is the highest of the night by 12 points, and the Clippers are just one-point favorites. With that in mind, Wall deserves some attention, especially given his 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Damian Lillard is also in play. He’s slightly cheaper than Wall on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%, and has an elite matchup vs. the New York Knicks. They’re tied for last in the league in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 114 points ranks third on the slate.
Spencer Dinwiddie appears to be in a great spot tonight for the Nets. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12 on DraftKings, and should see a few additional minutes with Caris LeVert sidelined. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.4% with LeVert off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Trey Burke has exploded for 30.75 and 40.75 DraftKings points in his past two games and has been highly involved offensively recently. He’s posted an average usage rate of 28.3% over his past five games, which is a big part of the reason why he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He probably won’t approach 30 minutes in today’s contest, but he doesn’t need to at his current salary.
D.J. Augustin has been a nice value of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.24 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models but has one of the toughest matchups of the day vs. the Toronto Raptors.
D’Angelo Russell has averaged an excellent 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel. He owns an excellent Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46 on FanDuel, and his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
CJ McCollum could also be worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,700, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.36 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Goran Dragic is expected to miss at least three more games with an injury, which should solidify the role for Rodney McGruder. The Heat wing is currently projected for 35.5 minutes today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.77 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.02 with a comparable minutes projection.
Bradley Beal has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, but he’s still managed an average Plus/Minus of +1.15 over his past 10 on DraftKings. His salary has come down slightly after peaking at $8,100, and no one at the position offers a safer floor. He’s currently projected for a position-high 37 minutes and has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is getting to live his best life in New York right now. They’re playing for absolutely nothing this season, which means he can just jack up shots at will: He currently ranks 14th in the league in usage rate. He’s coming off back-to-back games of at least 45 fantasy points and is projected for just 17-20% ownership on DraftKings.
Kawhi Leonard has had an interesting first year in Toronto. He’s been as good as ever on a per-minute basis and has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That said, his overall fantasy production has been dragged down by an average of just 33.6 minutes per game. The Raptors are one of the deepest teams in the league – especially given the emergence of Pascal Siakam this season – so he just isn’t needed as much as some of the other superstars in the league on a night-to-night basis.
That said, that could change today vs. the Orlando Magic. Kyle Lowry is currently questionable with ankle injury, and C.J. Miles, OG Anunoby and Norman Powell have already been ruled out. Leonard hasn’t played many minutes with Lowry off the floor this season, but he has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in limited playing time. The potential combination of increased playing time and increased offensive responsibilities would make him really appealing on a slate largely devoid of superstars.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Evan Turner looks like a solid value across the industry today vs. the Knicks. He’s seen a healthy amount of playing time in competitive games recently, seeing at least 27 in five of his past six games. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute on the season, so he doesn’t need to play more than that to potentially return value on today’s slate.
No one needs the Wizards to make a trade more than Otto Porter. He signed a max contract two years ago and was one of their most important players last season, but he’s been relegated to a minor role over the past two weeks. Still, it’s hard not to like him at just $5,100 on DraftKings given his potential upside.
Josh Richardson has arguably been Miami’s best player this season and has the potential to take on a larger role with Dragic out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of 1.3% with Dragic off the floor, resulting in an average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a nice value on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Danilo Gallinari missed yesterday’s contest for the Clippers and is questionable for today’s game as well. His absence would give Tobias Harris a big bump in fantasy value: He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Gallo off the floor this season. He’s managed a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games on DraftKings, and his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. Harris is about as close to a sure thing as there is on today’s weak slate.
Jonathan Isaac is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 32 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes of playing time. He’s been a productive player on a per-minute basis over the past month, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, and his $3,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s one of the better value plays of the day for cash games, and he has a nice ceiling for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Montrezl Harrell is another member of the Clippers who would see a boost with Gallinari out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.6% with Gallo off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He posted his best game of the season yesterday, scoring 55.25 DraftKings points in 32 minutes, and could be in line for another big performance today.
Can I interest you in a Noah Vonleh #RevengeGame? He’s still seeing a healthy amount of playing time despite coming off the bench and has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s slightly more appealing on FanDuel, where he’s priced at just $4,100.
The Magic have put up at least 130 points in back-to-back games thanks in part to the work being done by Nikola Vucevic. He’s been lights out in those contests, shooting 25-of-38 from the field, and has averaged an elite 1.42 FanDuel points per minute this season. Unfortunately, he’ll face a much stiffer test today vs. the Raptors – they rank sixth in defensive efficiency – and Orlando’s implied team total of 106.25 is tied for the lowest mark on the slate. Still, Vucevic leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Hassan Whiteside is arguably the most frustrating player in NBA DFS. He’s an elite per-minute producer – he’s averaged 1.51 FanDuel points per minute over the past month – but he always seems to do something to wind up in Erik Spoelstra’s dog house. He’s played under 27 minutes in three of his past four games, which makes him tough to trust today.
That said, he’s in an elite spot vs. the Brooklyn Nets, and his poor recent play has caused his salary to come down to reasonable levels. He could be an interesting buy-low target with upside.
Jonas Valanciunas could definitely be worth some consideration if Lowry is out today for the Raptors. He’s averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with Lowry off the floor this season, and he’s priced very fairly across the industry. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10 vs. the Magic, which is one of the top marks of the day at the position.
Predicting how many minutes Enes Kanter will see is extremely difficult at the moment, but he did play more than 37.5 in his most recent contest. He’s extremely productive when on the court, so he could be worth a flyer in GPPs.
Jarrett Allen has been a nice value at times this season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.60 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could be worth some exposure on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kawhi Leonard
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports