The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday is the final day of the regular season and features an 11-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Russell Westbrook is projected to be the highest-owned stud point guard, but the only one with a positive Projected Plus/Minus is Damian Lillard. Big Game Dame is averaging 30.0 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, and a solid 44.4 DraftKings points a game against Sacramento this season.
That said, his -4.36 average Plus/Minus and 30% Consistency Rating over the last 10 games are an indication that his salary has caught up with him; the better route may be to avoid paying up at the position altogether.
UPDATE: Westbrook’s Projected Plus/Minus is no longer negative with Paul George having been ruled out. Also, Lillard has been ruled out along with C.J. McCollum, which puts Seth Curry in line for 30-plus minutes. Curry is now among the top values on the slate.
Quinn Cook will inherit point guard duties for Stephen Curry (foot) tonight in Memphis and is the top value at the position. Cook has been exceeding salary-based expectations even in a reserve role of late, averaging a +8.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last six games, so he should be able to easily whiz past value tonight given that his salary has increased by only a few hundred dollars.
Less than a month ago on March 12, Jamal Murray posted 30 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover en route to a +13.11 Plus/Minus against the T-Wolves. He’s kept on balling ever since, averaging a +7.05 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games, and is the highest-rated player at the position in the Phan Model.
Delon Wright was relatively disappointing last night, finishing with only two assists to go along with 15 points and nine rebounds, but he’s still averaging 41.78 DraftKings points and a +14.3 Plus/Minus in the eight games Mike Conley (ankle, out) has missed since the All-Star break, per our NBA On/Off tool. Wright has a top-five ceiling projection at the position for his matchup with an unmotivated Warriors squad.
Aaron Holiday is averaging a +5.09 Plus/Minus and 83% Consistency Rating over his past six games. With the Pacers locked into the 5-seed, the rookie first-round pick could see extended run tonight and is the top value on the slate at the position.
Zhaire Smith, the 16th overall pick of last year’s draft, couldn’t have been happy to see his former teammates at Texas Tech fall to Virginia on Monday, but he had to like the career-high 29.6 minutes he saw Tuesday. With the 76ers locked into the 3-seed, Smith could see even more minutes tonight against the Chicago Bull(s**t)s.
The best bet among stud small forwards to play their normal allotment of minutes looks to be Paul George. PG13’s salary doesn’t leave much room for massive value, but he tends to consistently perform right around expectation; despite a -0.87 average Plus/Minus on DraftKings over the past month, he’s still hit value 61% of the time. Over the past fie games, he’s upped those marks to +1.48 and 80%, respectively.
UPDATE: As mentioned, George has been ruled out. His absence should benefit Dennis Schroeder the most, as Schroeder will likely be relied upon as the second scorer.
Despite logging 33.4 minutes a game over his past four, Royce O’Neale has managed to attempt just 5.5 field goals per game. Still, he’s exceeded value in three of those four, and the lack of a scoring outburst has kept his salary low enough for him to earn a top-two Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hornets coach James Borrego’s commitment to giving his youngins more run down the stretch has really paid off with Miles Bridges. Since March 19, Bridges is putting up 11.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.3 steals in 31.3 minutes per game. The rookie is averaging a +7.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus over that span and is one of the top mid-tier values at the position.
John Collins has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games, and barring any late-scratch shenanigans, he would be the top projected value among power forwards as he goes up against the Pacers.
Luke Kornet has been on the floor for at least 35 minutes in each of the Knicks’ past two games, posting DraftKings Plus/Minuses of +18.34 and +28.34. We have the second-year seven-footer projected for 36 minutes tonight, which gives him a top-three Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites.
Ersan Ilyasova should benefit from his team’s lack of motivation tonight. Ghostface Ilya projects for 25 minutes tonight for Milwaukee against the Thunder and has posted a DraftKings Plus/Minus of at least +7.89 in each of the past four games where he’s played at least 23 minutes. (And how is Turkish Thunder his only listed nickname on Basketball Reference? Do they only list a player’s least coolest nickname?)
Enes Kanter is averaging 18.1 points and 11.4 rebounds in 29.4 minutes per game since Jusuf Nurkic went down in late March and is the cheapest center with a top-five ceiling projection at the position. He’s double-doubled in five of his past six games and should be good for one more against a Kings squad allowing a +2.65 Opponent Plus/Minus to centers. Also note that Kanter has a -0.30 correlation with Lillard, and Lillard is expected to be the higher owned of the two.
Kyle O’Quinn has spent most of this season plastered to the Pacer bench, but he could push for 30 minutes with Myles Turner (ankle) banged up. The seventh-year big is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute this season, so minutes anywhere in the 20s or higher should result in him being one of the top point-per-dollar values on the entire slate.
Gorgui Dieng is averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute and would be in a similar boat if Karl-Anthony Towns (ankle, questionable) sits again.
Boban Marjanovic is another player who is highly productive on a per-minute basis (1.3 FP/Min) and could see in increase in playing time. Even at a conservative projection of 19 minutes, Marjanovic is a top-three rated center in the Phan Model, and that projection could increase depending on who the 76ers decide to rest in their meaningless finale.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Indiana Pacers center Kyle O’Quinn (10)
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports