Sunday offers a five-game main slate on FanDuel at 5pm ET and a four-game main slate on DraftKings at 6pm ET. The Thunder-Nuggets game isn’t included in the DraftKings main slate. Let’s get to it!
Russell Westbrook is the most expensive option in the FanDuel main slate, and he’s produced fewer than 50 FanDuel points in two of the last three games; once due to limited minutes and the other due to shooting 6-of-25 from the floor. In two games against the Nuggets this season, Westbrook produced 72.3 and 69.9 FanDuel points. The Thunder are presently road underdogs (per the Vegas dashboard), and when Westbrook has received a positive Opponent Plus/Minus in such situations his production has varied immensely, ranging from 33.2 to 72.7 FanDuel points (per our Trends tool). When the Thunder have been implied to score at least 110 points on the road this season, Westbrook’s has averaged 66.98 FanDuel points with only one dud performance. He’s still underpriced on FanDuel at $13,500, and he’s shooting for the single-season triple-double record.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Ricky Rubio has averaged a +14.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency in six straight games against the Lakers. That’s the highest mark against the Lakers over the last three seasons (minimum three games played). He’s the only point guard on the slate to provide 100 percent Consistency over the last month on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he faces a team ranked last in Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star break; the Lakers have allowed 112.5 points per 100 possessions over the last 21 games, ranking fifth in pace at 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes. In each of the last 10 games in which the Wolves have been favored Rubio has exceeded salary-based expectations while averaging a +14.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jamal Murray will likely start at point guard again since Jameer Nelson has been ruled out. Emmanuel Mudiay has been downgraded to questionable, and that could force Murray to play 40-plus minutes. Murray has recorded at least 17.6 FanDuel points in the last six games in which he’s played at least 24 minutes, and with a salary-implied expectation of 16.74 points Murray is a solid bet to provide value.
The Mavs will be without JJ Barea and Seth Curry in the backcourt, allowing Yogi Ferrell extended run against one of the worst team at defending point guards this season, especially since the beginning of March:
Mike Conley: He’s scored fewer than 35 DraftKings points (today’s salary-implied point total) just once over the last seven games, and his 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings pairs nicely with his 100 percent Consistency over the last month. The Grizzlies are locked into the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, which creates a bit of uncertainty for most of their starters in terms of minutes.
Over the last six games sans Leandro Barbosa, Devin Booker has led the team with 37.9 minutes per game and a +7.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Over the last nine games, Booker’s served as the second unit’s primary ballhandler, and as a result his assist rate of 24 percent has been eight points higher than his seasonal mark. When the Suns faced the Mavs on March 11 (before Eric Bledsoe was shut down), Booker provided 45.75 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes. In three games against the Mavs this season, Booker has averaged 32.3 actual points. With his steady playing time he warrants consideration in all formats.
James Harden played 38 minutes on Friday in a trivial game and missed a triple-double by one rebound. Although coach Mike D’Antoni wants to limit minutes for his starters with the Rockets locked into the No. 3 seed in the West, Harden may not have his playing time reduced.
Nevertheless, in three games against the Kings this season, Harden has yet to exceed 46.2 FanDuel points, posting his worst opponent-specific Plus/Minus of the season:
His 24.5 percent usage rate against the Kings this season is his lowest mark against any team. Still, given the shooting guards on the slate, you might want to bite the bullet and spend up for the floors of Booker and Harden. Both the Suns and Rockets have ranked first and second in pace over the last 15 games, and Harden’s floor projection is three times higher than that of any other shooting guard besides Booker.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Bleak is how I would describe the potential value plays at shooting guard. Gary Harris has permanent residence here, but he’s excluded from the DraftKings main slate. If Eric Gordon is given the night off, Lou Williams will likely see more minutes off the bench, but that’s not guaranteed with Bobby Brown and Troy Williams potentially available to eat minutes.
According to Mavs coach Rick Carlisle:
Our approach is going to be similar to what you’ve seen the last couple of games. We’re going to devote a lot of this to playing our younger guys. Our veterans will play, but their minutes will be limited somewhat. And we’ll go from there.
Nicolas Brussino is a young guy on the Mavs, and he played almost the entire second half on Friday. He costs the minimum on DraftKings, making him a low-end flier option. Coach Carlisle wants to use him as a primary ball handler, which will create more opportunities for him to score and dole out assists.
Victor Oladipo: In two games against the Nuggets this season, Oladipo recorded 46.3 and 29.1 FanDuel points. He’s eligible in FanDuel only, and shooting guards facing the Nuggets this season have supplied a +4.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70.2 percent Consistency — both league-leading marks at that position. Should Gary Harris become the primary defender on Westbrook — that’s what we’re projecting on our Matchup page — Oladipo’s night will become much easier.
Andrew Wiggins and T.J. Warren headline a dreary selection of available small forwards.
In three games against the Lakers this season, Wiggins has averaged 46.7 FanDuel points and an +18.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus. When the Wolves have been implied to score at least 107 points this season, Wiggins has shown no mercy, unlike the Dread Pirate Roberts:
Warren leads all small forwards with 2.6 offensive rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Conversely, the Mavs have ranked last in rebound rate the entire season. Over the last 10 games, Warren has provided an +8.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency.
Wiggins and Warren play for teams out of the postseason race and focused on giving their young players extended minutes. Wiggins’ matchup is one of the easiest on the slate, and since the Mavs are also limiting their veterans Warren will see less of Wesley Matthews and more of Dorian Finney-Smith. The difference in salary between Wiggins and Warren is close enough on DraftKings that spending up on Wiggins based on his track record could be the safer move in cash games.
Brandon Ingram has been limited to 25 minutes as he deals with right knee tendinitis. Despite the restriction, Ingram has recorded a month-high usage rate of 27.1 percent in four April games, up from his yearly mark of 16.5 percent. The Wolves have ranked as the worst defensive team over the last 15 games. In theory, you can pay the extra $1,100 for Ingram or punt with Doug McDermott or Dorian Finney-Smith. That’s not the only choice when shopping for a SF2, but it may be a common one.
Jared Dudley: For reasons unfathomable, Dudley has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaged an +8.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. I’m ready for his role to be reduced considering the Suns are prioritizing playing time for the neophytes, but he appears deadlocked in the rotation.
Nikola Jokic is the most expensive power forward by $3,500 in the FanDuel main slate. Julius Randle holds that mantle in the DraftKings main slate since Jokic is not available. As the Nuggets are still competing for the No. 8 seed in the postseason, Jokic’s playing time should be firm. The Lakers possess a four-man rotation at power forward and center, and in two games against the Timberwolves over the last two weeks Randle provided 43.9 and 28.1 FanDuel points.
Larry Nance Jr. has started four straight games at center. Coincidentally, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four consecutive games while the Lakers have reeled off three straight wins. His playing time has been yanked around with Tarik Black back in the fold, but based on the alternative cheap options at power forward Nance may provide some leverage in GPPs. Pro subscribers can review his ownership in the DFS Ownership Dashboard moments after lineups lock.
Dwight Powell is one of several Mavs expected to see an increase in playing time. In the Mavs last game, Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea, Devin Harris, and Salah Mejri all sat out the second half. Powell and Nicolas Brussino played heavy minutes since coach Rick Carlisle played seven total players and limited Nerlens Noel to four total second-half minutes. Powell costs the minimum on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings. He’ll likely be a popular value play at power forward. In the last four games in which he played at least 20 minutes, Powell averaged 22.56 DraftKings points.
Skal Labissiere: The Kings are going to rest players tonight as they have the last two weeks. When Labissiere has played at least 20 minutes in a game over the past month, he’s averaged 27.34 FanDuel points as the primary starting power forward.
Henry Ellenson: He started at power forward in the last game and missed all but one of his eight 3-point attempts. He still provided 29.2 FanDuel points in 25.6 minutes with Jon Leuer and Aron Baynes receiving a DNP-CD. If Ellenson remains the starter, he could be in line for similar minutes, and his salary remains the minimum on FanDuel.
Karl-Anthony Towns leads all players on DraftKings and FanDuel in Opponent Plus/Minus. He also leads all centers in projected minutes (in our Player Models), and coach Tom Thibodeau continues to run his starters normal minutes despite the Timberwolves being eliminated from postseason contention. Towns may also have the best FanDuel ratings of anyone on the slate:
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Nene remains out, meaning Clint Capela and Montrezl Harrell will split minutes at center. Harrell is power forward-only eligible on FanDuel and center eligible on DraftKings, and he costs less than $4,000 on both sites. Harrell has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, and Capela has averaged an +8.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last eight games. In the 25 games in which Harrell has been projected to play at least 18.9 minutes, he’s averaged a +4.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 76 percent Consistency.
Boban Marjanovic recorded 44.4 FanDuel points in 27.5 minutes on Friday, and he leads all centers on the slate with 1.33 FanDuel points per minute. As long as coach Stan Van Gundy prioritizes Marjanovic over Aron Baynes and Jon Leuer, he’ll be a strong bet to return value.
Georgios Papagiannis: The Rockets have allowed the most second-chance points and points in the paint on a per-game basis since the All-Star break. Papagiannis is expected to get minutes with the Kings resting Kosta Koufos.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: