Friday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans
This game has the highest Vegas total of the day at 226.5 points, and the spread of 4.5 points might surprise you. That said, the Pelicans have won two of their last three games, and they looked especially great on Tuesday, holding a hot Portland team to only 77 points.
Since the All-Star break, when they traded for big man DeMarcus Cousins, the Pelicans have been awful offensively — their 99.9 Offensive Rating during that span would rank dead last over the full season — but they’ve been the third-best defensive team over that time:
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
And that makes some sense: The spacing with two big men on the court is already suspect, and the Pelicans have very little shooting around their studs. However, having two big men — especially ones as athletic as Cousins and Anthony Davis — usually leads to a solid defense, and the Pelicans have taken a leap this year in that regard thanks to Davis’ excellent rim protection.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
That said, superstar James Harden can get it going against anyone. Per the NBA Trends tool, he’s averaged 55.4 FanDuel points and a +6.21 Plus/Minus on ridiculous 84.6 percent Consistency in 13 games this season versus top-five defenses.
However, he has continued to struggle to hit value since they acquired high-usage wing Lou Williams . . .
Per the NBA On/Off tool, Harden has taken the biggest hit with Lou, as he’s seen a massive 6.1 percent drop in usage when they’ve shared the floor:
That said, Harden hasn’t really needed to exert himself that much lately. Since the beginning of February, he’s played in only four games with a spread as close as this one. The results have been mixed:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Other than Harden, there are several interesting options for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), one of which is Clint Capela, who should see a slight uptick in minutes today as Nene is unlikely to suit up on the first leg of a back-to-back. Capela has been fantastic over the last 10 games . . .
. . . and has averaged 26.37 FanDuel points and a +5.8 Plus/Minus in 11 games sans Nene. His low $5,400 FanDuel salary requires only 21.57 points to hit value tonight.
On the other side of the ball, the Pelicans remain very top-heavy with their two big men. Poor Jrue Holiday was having an excellent season but can’t seem to find his fit with those guys: With Cousins on the floor, he’s decreased his usage rate by 3.0 percent, decreased his assist rate by 6.4 percent, and he’s increased his turnover ratio by 4.1 percent. It’s been ugly:
Houston remains below-average against opposing big men . . .
. . . but note the big pricing discrepancies between the Pelicans guys: Cousins is especially cheap on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating, whereas Davis is a much better value on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Shop appropriately.
And finally, while Jordan Crawford and his 20 minutes seems a little thin, he’ll likely be popular given his $3,500 FanDuel price tag and this recent production:
Point Guards
The Phoenix Suns elected to shut down Eric Bledsoe for the rest of the season to let their young prospects, and especially Tyler Ulis, develop and get more playing time. Ulis, their second-round pick in this past 2016 NBA Draft, responded Wednesday in the start with 38.7 FanDuel points in 38.9 minutes. Further, per our NBA News feed, backup PG/SG Brandon Knight felt this way about the situation:
Ulis will get all the minutes he can handle and gets a nice matchup today against a Magic team that ranks just 23rd in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions. He will likely be a very popular option, especially on FanDuel, where his $5,400 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
No Brooklyn Nets player has consistently received 30-plus minutes this season, but Jeremy Lin doesn’t even need it at his near-30 percent usage rate lately:
Further, he has a nice +2.98 Opponent Plus/Minus mark on FanDuel against the Boston Celtics, who have been a bottom-10 team versus opposing PGs this season:
However, and this is a huge however, the Celtics will be without Isaiah Thomas, who ranks dead last out of 89 eligible PGs this season with a -4.31 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Boston will likely start Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley at the backcourt spots instead, and they are both elite wing defenders.
If you want to pay up at PG, there aren’t many options: John Wall is questionable to play after injuring his foot on Wednesday, and at $10,400 on FanDuel he is $2,800 more expensive than the next highest-priced option in Ricky Rubio. And Rubio might be the place to go: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games and has averaged a ridiculous +10.85 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s on the road, where he has slightly negative splits today . . .
. . . but those haven’t mattered much of late:
Shooting Guards
A lot of the SG value is in the Houston-New Orleans game listed above: Three of the top four SG options currently in the FanDuel Phan Model come from that contest. That said, let’s look at a couple other guys that are in good spots today.
Marcus Smart definitely stands out, as he’ll likely get the starting nod at PG in Thomas’ absence. He and Avery Bradley, who will also be a very popular play given the Boston backcourt depth situation, have led the Celtics in minutes in four games sans Thomas this season:
Smart and Bradley averaged 26.1 and 36.6 DraftKings points in 32.8 and 34.4 minutes sans Thomas, and Smart in particular posted a nice assist rate of 25.8 percent, which was a 4.1 percent increase over his season average. They will both be extremely popular value plays, and especially on DraftKings, where their salaries of $4,900 and $6,000 come with Bargain Ratings of 99 and 66 percent. Further, they will face a Brooklyn Nets team that ranks first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions.
And if you want to pay up at the position but pivot from Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo also gets a brilliant matchup against the Lakers, who rank fifth in pace, averaging 101.1 possessions/48, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.7 points/100. He absolutely demolished them in their first meeting this season, and they were actually trying a little harder a month ago than they are now:
If you need a bigger sample, Giannis has largely beat up on bottom-five defenses this season, averaging 50.6 FanDuel points on 80 percent Consistency.
And if we take out his struggles against the Nuggets, things look even better. It would be an understatement to say he has upside today.
Giannis: DFS Scouting Report
Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler has been an extremely popular option when Dwyane Wade has missed time, and for good reason:
Per the On/Off tool, Butler has averaged 49.59 FanDuel points and a +8.2 Plus/Minus in eight games this season without his fellow wing. He’s used 31.0 percent of the Bulls’ possessions while on the floor in those contests, which is a drastic 4.2 percent increase on his yearly mark. Washington has been solid in 2017, and they’re now vying for a top seed in the Eastern Conference, but their defense has still been suspect at times: They rank just 17th in defensive efficiency overall on the season, and they’ve allowed opponents to score 106.1 points/100. The one-on-one matchup against Otto Porter isn’t the best, but Jimmy has had success against him already twice this year.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
T.J. Warren has been playing huge minutes of late — he’s gone 41.2, 34.1, 33.4, and 39.1 over his last four — and he’s correspondingly put up huge DFS games:
He has averaged a +8.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus on impressive 90 percent Consistency over that time, and oddly his price really hasn’t moved that much: He remains only $6,300 on FanDuel, where he comes with eight Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He is a guy that is typically reliant on pace . . .
. . . but that has been less important given his huge minutes over the past couple of months.
Speaking of small forwards that do better in pace-up games, Harrison Barnes continues that trend as well this season. In games with a pace differential (paceD) of at least five possessions per 48 minutes, Barnes has been excellent and consistent:
Philly isn’t a great defensive team by any means: They rank 18th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 106.4 points/100, and they’ve been even worse than that without Joel Embiid on the floor. That said, Barnes could see a bit of elite wing defender Robert Covington, who ranks first among all SFs this year (by a mile) with a +3.66 DRPM. Covington will likely start on Wesley Matthews, but if Barnes gets rolling, the 76ers could slide their defenders around. Regardless, Barnes is a worthwhile risk and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games. He comes with 10 FanDuel Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forwards
The power forward position is somewhat like the point guard position in that there’s a huge gap between the highest-priced player (Anthony Davis at $11,200 on FanDuel) and the next highest-priced guy in Dario Saric at $7,900. Saric has a brutal -3.40 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus mark today, which is mostly because Dallas plays at the second-slowest pace in the league this year, averaging just 93.9 possessions/48. However this version of Super Dario . . .
. . . is certainly hard to fade, especially at around a 27-28 percent usage rate. He has been filling up the box score of late and certainly has some upside against a Dallas team that ranks dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.7 percent of the available boards on the season.
Nikola Mirotic hasn’t put up huge games of late and hasn’t even been really playing that many minutes, but he has been gunning:
He has a positive correlation with both Butler and Rajon Rondo, who will likely continue to start and play 30-plus minutes, and he’s taking a whopping 20 3-pointers over his last two games. His low salaries of $4,300 on both sites require just 19.15 DraftKings points and 16.74 FanDuel points to hit value. As you can see, he’s been way above that over his last two games, and he has upside against a Washington squad that has been bottom-10 in 3-point percentage (36.6 percent) allowed on the year. The Bulls have played 1.1 possessions/48 faster with Mirotic on the floor and Wade off this season, per the On/Off tool.
Aaron Gordon was terrible in his first meeting against the Suns this year:
However, that was in the first two weeks of the season, and Gordon is in a different role now with Serge Ibaka traded to the Toronto Raptors. In 12 games this season without Ibaka, Gordon has averaged 27.5 FanDuel points in 30.2 minutes per game — those are increases of 5.1 fantasy points per game and 2.3 minutes per game. Since he’s increased his role — which really means he’s just seeing close to 30 minutes regularly now — he’s been very consistent, and especially against bottom NBA teams:
The Suns remain poor defensively, allowing 109.0 points/100, and they also rank third overall in pace, averaging 102.3 possessions/48. There’s a lot of green here:
Centers
Ivica Zubac was quite popular on Wednesday after putting up 40.7 FanDuel points in the game prior and the Lakers announcing that Timofey Mozgov would be shut down to give more playing time to Zubac. And then he put up a dud:
That said, everything that made him an excellent play on Wednesday remains true today, and he also gets an easier matchup against the Bucks, who have allowed an average of 27.8 FanDuel points to opposing centers projected for at least 15 fantasy points.
Zubac remains incredibly cheap on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary requires only 15.86 points to hit value; he comes with eight Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Alan Williams, a.k.a. “Big Sauce,” has been an amazing DFS asset of late, averaging a ridiculous +10.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He is more expensive than Zubac by $1,700 on FanDuel, but that should only work to keep his ownership levels down, and especially on FanDuel, where you can roster only one center. Further, he gets the Magic today, and they’ve been the third-worst team in the league against opposing centers this season:
And if you want to pay up, Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t a bad place to look. He missed value last game against the Celtics, but he’s still averaging a nice +5.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games:
He’s averaged 48.1 FanDuel points on 63.2 percent Consistency over the last two months, and he needs just 44.4 points at his $10,600 salary to hit value tonight.
That seems reasonable considering he’s going up against the Heat, who have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing centers this season, as evidenced by KAT’s +2.83 Opponent Plus/Minus. He put up 48.6 against them in their first meeting this year . . .
. . . and he continues to have strong correlation with Rubio:
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
