The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 3:30 pm ET.
Raise your hand if you thought there’d be a slate where Spencer Dinwiddie was the most expensive PG on FanDuel. Put your hand down, liar. As unexpected as it may seem, Dinwiddie has been one of the focal points of the Nets offense recently, averaging 38.5 FanDuel points per game over his past five contests. He’s really benefited from the injury to D’Angelo Russell, as he’s averaged over 38 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Russell off the court this season:
As good as Dinwiddie has been, it’s going to be hard to trust him at his current salary in a brutal matchup against the Grizzlies: They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of -0.27 to opposing PGs and have played at the third slowest pace this season.
Mario Chalmers has been an excellent value on DraftKings since taking over as the starting PG for the injured Mike Conley:
He has an excellent matchup today with the Brooklyn Nets, who currently rank first in the league in pace and tied for 26th in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have an implied team total of 108.75 points, which is roughly nine points higher than their season average. Chalmers remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Devin Booker is currently questionable for today’s game, which could open the door for Mike James to enter the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns. Even if he doesn’t draw the start, no one on the Suns has seen a bigger boost in usage with Booker off the floor this season than James:
At just $4,400 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings, he’d be very intriguing if Booker were to sit.
Jeff Teague was a late scratch on Friday and is currently questionable for today’s contest with the Suns. If he were to suit up, however, he has arguably the best matchup of the day at the PG position:
He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. If Teague doesn’t play, look for Tyus Jones to draw the start after playing 32 minutes on Friday. At only $3,600 on DraftKings, he would become one of the top value options of the day.
No one on the Grizzlies has averaged a higher usage rate of more fantasy points with Conley off the floor than Tyreke Evans:
Like Chalmers, Evans should enjoy one of the top pace up spots we’ll see all season, with today’s game against the Nets resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +8.9 for the Grizzlies players. Evans has historically thrived in pace up situations, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.13 on DraftKings when playing in games with a paceD of at least +4.0.
Justin Holiday has failed to return value in each of his past two games, thanks mostly to the fact that the Bulls have lost those games by an average of 39.5 points. Assuming that the Bulls can keep this game somewhat closer – which is obviously a big assumption – Holiday should see all the minutes he can handle: He had played at least 36 minutes in each of the three games prior. Holiday has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.50, and his 11 Pro Trends trail only Booker on today’s slate.
Jimmy Butler has one of the top Opponent Plus/Minus ratings on the slate at +5.47 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He would see an additional boost in value if Teague were to miss today’s contest: He’s seen the largest bump in usage for the Timberwolves with Teague off the court this season:
Kris Dunn is another member of the Bulls who has seen his minutes impacted by blowouts recently but figures to be a big part of their offense moving forward. Chicago is only seven point underdogs today against the Heat, so perhaps they can keep this game somewhat close.
TJ Warren has been playing well recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.74 on DraftKings over his past 10 games:
His usage rate of 24.8 percent on the season trails only Booker, and Warren has unsurprisingly seen one of the largest usage increases on the team with Booker off the court:
He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Chandler Parsons has an elite matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, leading all SF-eligible players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.59 on DraftKings. Parsons typically only plays approximately 25 minutes per game, but a lot of damage can be done against the Nets in 25 minutes. He makes for an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just 9-12 percent projected ownership.
Allen Crabbe remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. Crabbe has been playing roughly 30 minutes per game for the Nets recently, and no one on the team has seen a bigger usage or Plus/Minus increase with Russell off the court this season:
Andrew Wiggins has seen pretty significant decreases in both his usage rate and scoring this season, but he’s made up for it in other ways. He’s been slightly better as a peripheral contributor, particularly in the steals category, where he’s averaging a career-high 1.4 per game. More importantly, he’s been getting a ton of minutes, playing at least 38.5 in three of his past four games. Wiggins has lots of upside at his current salary if he reverts to his old ways in the scoring department.
There really is no true stud today at the PF position, but Lauri Markkanen has the potential to be a stud in the future. He’s been impressive as a rookie, averaging 0.94 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, where he leads the position with nine Pro Trends. He’s ceded some playing time to Bobby Portis since he returned from suspension, but Markkanen should still see roughly 30 minutes a game, which is enough for him to potentially return value at his current salary.
No one on today’s slate has a bigger pricing discrepancy between the two sites than JaMychal Green, who’s priced at $4,400 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. His FanDuel price is probably a truer representation of the type of player he should be going forward, as he’s played at least 32 minutes in two of his past three games. Historically, Green has been a major value on DraftKings when projected for at least 28 minutes of playing time:
He has a dream matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.86.
Jarrett Allen played 24 minutes in his last game for the Nets and parlayed those minutes into 26.5 DraftKings points. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has said that Allen has the potential to earn more minutes if he continues to play well, and his competition for minutes at the center position in Brooklyn is pretty thin. He’s very affordable at just $3,200 on DraftKings.
No PF on today’s slate has been more impactful on a per-minute basis than Bobby Portis, averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute this season. He represents a solid value on FanDuel at $4,800.
No position on today’s slate is more top heavy than center, with three players featuring salaries of at least $8,900 on FanDuel. Marc Gasol has the top matchup of the group against the Brooklyn Nets, who have been eviscerated by opposing centers on FanDuel this season:
In addition to the juicy matchup, Gasol has averaged 42.13 FanDuel points in games without Conley this season. He’s also posted an excellent 92 percent Consistency Rating over the past month and leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t have as good of a matchup as Gasol, but the Timberwolves will likely have the highest implied team total of the day. He seems underpriced on DraftKings at $8,900, where his Bargain Rating of 97 percent is the top mark among center-eligible players.
As good as Towns is on the offensive end of the court, he’s that bad on the defensive end: He ranked dead last among qualifiers at center in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season. Tyson Chandler will likely still see the majority of the center minutes for the Phoenix Suns despite their depth at the position. He has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.94 over his past three games on DraftKings.
Given the other options at the position and his lack of production recently, very few people are going to roster Hassan Whiteside if he does suit up for today’s contest. He’s currently questionable with a knee injury, so you’ll need to monitor his status up until lineup lock, but he’s one of the few players on today’s slate who’ll have GPP-winning upside at minimal ownership. If he doesn’t play, look for Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk to soak up some additional minutes.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed: