This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NBA’s brightest stars.
It might not feel like it, but 2016-2017 has been a breakout fantasy season for Anthony Davis. He is averaging 54.13 fantasy points per game (DK), which would represent a nearly five-point increase over his previous career-high. Additionally, Davis has greatly improved his Consistency: He’s reached 64 percent this season after recording 50 and 53 percent in the previous two seasons.
We look at Davis as someone you can’t trust in cash games, but before passing judgment, take a look at the below image. Here, I’m sorting by Consistency percentage among players priced above $10,000 on DraftKings in 2016-2017.
Davis has actually been more consistent than other star players who we may not think twice about rostering in cash games, like DeMarcus Cousins and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
We all know about the injury risk that comes with rostering Davis, but there is more to the story here. Let’s take a look.
Statistical Breakdown
Davis’ statistical profile has remained largely the same over the past three seasons with only small variances in the percentages points, rebounds, and blocks contribute to his overall production.
Trends
Baseline Davis
Davis’ overall baseline Plus/Minus in our database is -0.33 (DK). That said, as we’ve all probably learned the hard way, Davis has left quite a few games due to injury over his career. If we sort his past results by fantasy points scored, you can see what I mean:
On the one hand, it’s probably fair to leave these games in the sample to account for the injury risk that comes with rostering Davis in DFS. If that’s the case, Davis’ baseline Plus/Minus is a disappointing -0.33:
But if we want to get a clearer picture of what he is capable of, we can filter these games out using the ‘Actual Points’ filter in our Trends tool. If we remove any games in which Davis scored fewer than 25 points – a sample mostly, if not entirely, made up of games he left early – his Plus/Minus becomes +1.85:
With Davis — more than any player in NBA DFS — samples are very important. Since Davis’ salary is always high, a sample that includes even a single game Davis left early could have a strong impact on the trend’s overall Plus/Minus. I will not be excluding injuries except where noted moving forward, but this is something to think about if you decide to set up your own trends.
Home/Away
It is often mentioned in passing that Davis performs significantly better in home games because the Pelicans’ scorekeeper is very generous in awarding the home team with peripheral stats. In fact, a study called “The Van Exel Effect,” done as part of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, found that blocks are indeed boosted for the home team more at Smoothie King Center more than almost any other arena in the NBA. This is perhaps evident in Davis’ home/away splits in blocks per game: He averages 2.8 at home and 2.1 on the road. All told, Davis scores around 1.5 more fantasy points in home games.
Win Percentage
Davis, like Cousins, has owned poor teams whose winning percentage is 40 percent or worse, and he struggles when facing a team whose winning percentage is 60 or better:
In 2016-2017, Davis has really struggled against good teams:
Still, Davis’ 70-plus point upside is intact even though the overall results have been poor. In 59 of these games since 2014-2015, he has exceeded 60 points (DK) 10 times and he’s gone over 70 twice. At considerably lower ownership, Davis remains in guaranteed prize pool consideration even when facing an elite opponent.
Vegas
Davis’ favorite/dog splits are an extension of his good teams/bad teams splits:
And once we start looking at games that are more likely to become blowouts (based on the spread Vegas has set) the split widens:
On the surface, Davis rates highly negatively when his Vegas Score – a composite value that considers a number of factors such as spread, total, etc. – is 90 or better:
But, remember, when looking at samples involving Davis, there’s always the worry that there is an in-game injury included in the sample that is skewing the results. That is the case here — this cohort includes the following games:
• 1/25/17 vs. Oklahoma City: left game in the first half, right thigh aggravation.
• 1/25/16 vs. Houston: left game in the first half, concussion.
Side note: Don’t roster Davis on 1/25/18.
When we remove games that include in-game injuries, the results leap back into the positives:
The +1.79 Plus/Minus above represents a two-point increase over his baseline -0.33 Plus/Minus.
Back-to-Backs
Although Davis’ overall home/away splits were not especially remarkable, they are quite pronounced in games that are part of a back-to-back series. In the first and second games of back-to-back sets played on the road (1A, 2A), Davis’ Plus/Minus is well into the negatives:
Salary Change
Because of the risk Davis presents, it makes a lot of sense to consider his pricing when rostering him. Here are his splits when his price has risen or fallen at least $500 over the past month on DK:
Interestingly, Davis both scores fewer points and appears on more DFS rosters when he is at his most expensive. The former could very well be noise, but it is notable that more people have been willing to roster Davis when at his most expensive than when he is on sale. Of course, in these instances Davis’ price is likely up due to recent strong performance. But as the Plus/Minus and Consistency averages above indicate, continuing to ride the wave here has been a mistake.
Salary Sweet Spot
Based on Davis’ average of 50.93 fantasy points per game on FanDuel, we would expect him to cost $12,100. Davis did reach this level during a late November, early December stretch of the schedule that saw him face the Lakers, 76ers, and Suns, but he can presently be rostered for around $11,000. As long as Davis is healthy, he should have no problem consistently beating that price point.
On DK, Davis averages 54.13 points, which lines up with a $11,300 salary. His average price on the season is $10,700, and his current price fluctuates between $10,000 to $11,000 seemingly based on strength of matchup. When priced below $10,500 on DK, Davis has averaged a +6.72 Plus/Minus on 76.9 percent Consistency, which includes the 15-point injury game against the Thunder.
On/Off
When Davis is in the Pelicans’ lineup, he is their central figure; when he is off the court, there is a lot of extra usage to go around. That makes his On/Off queries rather straightforward.
When Davis has been off the court this season, Jrue Holiday becomes a strong play, gaining the largest usage bump and the second-largest Plus/Minus bump:
Going back to last season, when Davis is out for an entire game, frontcourt players Terrence Jones and Alexis Ajinca have picked up the slack:
Alexis Ajinca? Yes, Alexis Ajinca, who averaged a +7.58 Plus/Minus on 75 percent Consistency in 12 games Davis missed toward the end of last season:
When Davis is on the court, nothing good happens for the other Pelicans . . . fantasy-wise, at least. Only two players have positive Plus/Minus differentials: Buddy Hield (+1.0) and Tim Frazier (+0.7).
Davis has benefited when Jrue Holiday is off the court, posting a +1.1 Plus/Minus differential and 2.6 percent increase in usage in 17 games over the past three seasons. Davis has struggled a bit when sharing the court with Jones: He has accumulated a -1.4 Plus/Minus differential when Jones is on the court with him.
Stacking the Pelicans
Below is the average production for the Pelicans during Davis’ 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Based on the On/Off data, the results here are pretty much what you’d expect. When Davis excels, it’s mostly to the (fantasy) detriment of his teammates. On both sites, only three players have a Plus/Minus above zero in Davis’ best games, with Holiday topping out at +3.01. Holiday’s top Plus/Minus score here was already far from impressive, but it’s also probably a little unrepresentative. In those games on FanDuel, his average cost was $6,605 and his current asking price is generally between $8,000 and $8,300. If we were to adjust Holiday’s price to his current value, it’s likely his Plus/Minus becomes negative here.
Conclusion
It all comes back to injuries with Davis. As we saw above, you can make Davis either look like a really great or really poor fantasy asset based solely on whether you choose to exclude or include games he leaves early due to injury in the result set. If we could be confident that Davis’ injury issues are behind him, we could treat him as one of the most consistent assets in the game – only James Harden and Russell Westbrook have exceeded their implied totals at a higher rate than Davis among players costing $10,000 or more on DK this season. But if you’re not confident in Davis’ ability to avoid injury moving forward, well, I can’t really blame you.
