The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 4.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Baltimore Ravens – $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
Despite a heartbreaking Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins, Josh Allen projects for the highest ceiling, facing a team in the Baltimore Ravens, who rank 18 in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Allen leads the Bills, who are a three-point road favorite and are playing in a Week 4 matchup with shootout potential, a 51-point total in what looks to be one of the marquee matchups of the week. In the 21-19 loss, Allen dropped back 63 times, completing 42 passes for 400 yards and two touchdowns, and the frequency is expected to continue against Baltimore in Week 4, with Buffalo using a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling ratio, and operating with a 26.7 second-per-snap pace (per RotoViz)
Per the Trends tool, when Allen appears in matchups above a 50-point total, he averages 23.42 DraftKings points, with a +4.38 Plus/Minus and a 64.3% consistency rating. Despite the sky-high salary, Allen may be worth the pay-up, giving lineups a solid floor, especially as a dual-threat quarterback.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts again projects for the highest ceiling against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4. The dual-threat quarterback looks to have a more unfavorable matchup, facing a Jaguars defense ranked fourth in defensive DVOA and comes in as a 6.5-point home favorite. Look for Hurts to likely target wide receiver A.J. Brown and use his skillful rushing ability in what looks to be a breakout performance after three weeks this season.
Top Value: Marcus Mariota vs. Cleveland Browns – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Former Heisman Trophy Winner and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota projects to be a top value, priced at a discounted $5,600 on DraftKings, and looks to have a favorable matchup against a Cleveland Browns defense ranked 23rd in DVOA.
Mariota and the Falcons are a slight 1.5-point home underdogs against the Browns in a matchup with a 47.5-point total, which is one of the highest on the slate. Using a pass-heavy 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling scheme and could easily move the ball down the field, facing a defense ranked 24th in overall defense, according to PFF.
In a Week 3 27-23 win against the Seattle Seahawks, who look to be similarly ranked in DVOA, Mariota threw for 229 yards on 13 passes and one touchdown.
Look for Mariota to use his weapons in the receiving corps in rookie Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, with the rookie wideout being the main beneficiary, seeing a massive 32% of the target share.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs Tennessee Titans – $8,800 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
We might all be patiently waiting for Jonathan Taylor to smash the slate, but the star running back again projects for the highest ceiling, facing a Tennessee Titans defense ranked 20th in rush DVOA, which may signal a more likely path to an 85th-percentile outcome.
In a Week 3 upset of the Chiefs, Taylor rushed 21 times for 71 yards but failed to reach the end zone for the second consecutive week. However, as the lead back, Taylor rarely leaves the field, seeing 76% of the Colts’ offensive plays, which is fourth among running backs (per FantasyPros Snap Count Leaderboard).
Keep an eye on Taylor’s status, as the running back is dealing with a toe injury.
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites against the Titans and expect Taylor to play a significant role in moving the Colts offense forward.
Don’t forget his ability to easily reach the 100-yard rushing bonus, further adding his ability to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, mainly because of his dominance in the running game.
Top Value: Jamaal Williams vs Seattle Seahawks – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
With an injury likely sidelining Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams should see an uptick in production as the lead back and projects as a top value among running backs this week. In a Week 3 28-24 loss to NFC North rivals Minnesota Vikings, Williams rushed for 87 yards on 20 attempts, finding the end zone twice, and looks to have a favorable matchup against a Seattle Seahawks defense ranked 21st in rushing DVOA.
Look for Williams to be a popular play at the position and should see plenty of production in what looks to be a high-scoring affair, with the game total currently 48-points. Further, the Lions are a four-point home favorite, which should signal more production for Williams toward the end of the game if the Lions run away with it.
Also don’t forget to consider Williams as a viable bring-back option with Seahawks wide receivers, namely Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, in hopes this matchup becomes a back-and-forth affair.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Stefon Diggs at Baltimore Ravens – $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Without Cooper Kupp on the main slate, Buffalo Bills superstar Stefon Diggs projects for the highest ceiling in Week 4, in a marquee matchup with the Baltimore Ravens
A favorite target of Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 11.7 targets per game this season and 12.7 yards per reception and should be a very popular choice, despite a very expensive price tag.
Aside from the volume, Diggs also is the preferred target in the red zone, leading the team with seven red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Bills offense and touchdown upside, Diggs immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome and can even be used as a bring-back with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has had huge fantasy performances to start the season and is priced similar to Allen on DraftKings ($8,300).
Top Value: Richie James vs. Chicago Bears – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
With injuries decimating the New York Giants receiving corps, Richie James should stand to benefit with an uptick in production and is projected as a top value among wide receivers for Week 4.
James has been a consistent option in the Giants’ receiving corps this season, targeted at least five times each game and averaging 10.4 yards per reception. Despite what looks to be a tough matchup, facing a Bills defense ranked 11th in pass DVOA, James should be a fantasy-viable option as part of a Giant’s pass-heavy offense, using a 60%/40% pass-to-run play calling ratio and priced at a hyper-discounted $4,000, which should unlock higher priced stacks or even one-off plays.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Mark Andrews vs Buffalo Bills – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Mark Andrews projects as the top ceiling among tight ends this week, as the preferred option for Lamar Jackson, responsible for a mass 36% target share. In a 36-27 shootout win over the New England Patriots, Andrews caught eight passes for 89 yards and found the end zone twice.
However, Buffalo’s defense ranks second in pass DVOA, which might look to hamper Andrew’s performance. However, Andrews’ upside should remain on his ability to find the end zone, where he leads the Ravens’ receiving corps with five redzone targets.
With the first-look volume and touchdown upside, consider using Andrews on both sides of stacks for this matchup.
Top Value: David Njoku vs. Atlanta Falcons – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
After a 10-target, nine-reception performance in Week 3, Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku projects as a top value among tight ends this week in what looks to be an ideal meeting against a Falcons defense ranked 24th in passing DVOA.
In a matchup with a 47.5-point total, the Week 4 meeting between the Falcons and Browns should signal shootout potential, and Njoku could quickly become a fantasy-relevant option, given his volume in the red zone, where he leads the Browns receiving corps with five red zone targets this season.
Given the hyper-discounted price on DraftKings, Njoku can be seen as a viable one-off play or as part of discounted stacks featuring Marcus Mariota, who is priced at $5,600, or Jacoby Brissett, who is priced at $5,500 on DraftKings.