Week 3 Thursday night football delivers a classic AFC North battle with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium. This matchup has lost some of its luster relative to years past, with neither team boasting much offensive talent.
The Browns are awaiting the completion of Deshaun Watson’s suspension, while Mitch Trubisky is a few sizes too small for Ben Roethlisberger’s shoes. Still, some appealing props are highlighted with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator that leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
Steelers vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Picks
This is a simple-to-use tool that quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any given game based off their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on the bets you’ve selected.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Najee Harris Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Through the first two weeks of the season, we have not received a sincere effort from Najee Harris. The second-year running back has toted the ball just 25 times for 72 yards; however, on a short week against the Browns’ vaunted pass rush, we’re expecting the Steelers to lean into their run game on Thursday night.
Harris is well below his averages from last season, suggesting that an outburst is forthcoming. His yards per carry has dipped to 2.9 yards, a full yard below his 3.9 average from 2021. Moreover, Harris’s two-game rushing yard total in 2022 is roughly equivalent to his per-game average (70.6) from last season.
An emphasis on the running game should help Harris surpass his rushing yard total and get back up toward his averages.
Mitch Trubisky Under 12.5 Rushing Yards
Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky has the keys to the offense, but we have yet to see him find fifth gear. Although we’re expecting an improved effort in Week 3, it would be unwise to expect Trubisky to move the ball with his feet.
As per the ScoreAndOdds calculators, taking the under on Trubisky’s rushing yard total has the highest-rated expected value, coming in at 18%. The former second-overall selection has a paltry 16 yards on four carries so far this season, failing to surpass nine yards in either contest.
The Browns defense has been eating up quarterbacks this season, sacking them six times and allowing a cumulative 12 rushing yards across their two outings. The quicker Trubisky gets the ball out of his hand, the better Steelers’ offense will be.
Pittsburgh Steelers Team Total Over 16.5
Although Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled to move the ball consistently, they’re facing a Cleveland defense that was exposed by a Joe Flacco-led New York Jets squad in Week 2. That opens the door for a strong Steelers showing, which is reflected in the ScoreAndOdds projections.
This prop correlates with Harris’s rushing yard prop total. The better he performs, the more likely the Steelers will move the ball downfield and put points on the board. Given the Browns’ ineffective play last week and the limited preparation time, things will get worse before they get better.
Further, the Steelers defense can turn the ball over, if not put points up themselves, adding an intriguing dynamic that should help them get over their modest team total.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Lock in Grant’s Pick in 1 Click
As you can see, the odds are in the bettors’ favor. Based on the ScoresAndOdds simulations, the implied probability of the three wagers hitting is +300, but FanDuel is offering +503, leaving a substantive edge in backing the three-bet parlay.
Happy sweating and good luck!