This week, we’ve published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. You can find links to all of that content in this post, for your weekend reading pleasure.
People have gotten too attached to the DFS analogy of the stock market, and the analogy is too imprecise in certain ways. For one, the pricing in the stock market is often more erratic than it is in other markets. For instance, despite the devastating crash of home prices in 2007, the truth is that as long as stock markets have existed, they have been drastically more volatile than real estate valuations. DFS salaries do not fluctuate nearly as dramatically as stock prices, and given that volatility is a constitutive component of the stock market — if it weren’t volatile, it wouldn’t be the stock market — the comparison between stock prices and player salaries isn’t quite right.
For instance, if you find a positive Black Swan — an underowned player with the strong (but underappreciated) potential to overperform — then you will benefit with that player in your lineup, not only because of his production but also because he gives your lineup a better chance of being unique. And if you find a negative Black Swan — an overowned player with the strong (but underappreciated) potential to underperform — then you will benefit with that player not in your lineup, not only because you’ll have someone else in that spot but also because your competitors will be weaker for having rostered the Black Swan they didn’t see coming.
Essentially, an inverted yield curve is the sign of economic instability. In a regular financial environment, a positive correlation exists between loan duration and interest rates. The longer the loan, the higher the interest rate. There are times, though, when a negative correlation exists between time and interest rates — when short-term Treasury bonds have higher interest rates than long-term Treasury bonds. And when that happens the United States normally experiences an economic recession. It’s not all that hard to apply the dynamics of the inverted yield curve to MLB. All we need to do is focus on factors showing a divergence between the normal correlation that should exist between time and money on the one hand and yield (or production) on the other hand.
With the benefit of a strong offense and a park that doesn’t seem too detrimental to his profile, David Price is ready to rock in 2016. He finished 2015 at his highest price point on FanDuel at $12,300 and just $400 below his highest price on DraftKings ($12,400), which means he won’t come cheap to open 2016. Still, the 23.72 DraftKings points he averaged per game in 2015 meant he should have had an average cost around $13,800, leaving him in play even at his most expensive.
Jay Persson, Peter Jennings, and Justin Phan break down the 2/26/16 NBA DFS slate.
Jay Persson, Peter Jennings, and Justin Phan break down the 2/26/16 NBA DFS slate. You can now listen to the full podcast or the abbreviated, “position quick hits” version.
Barnes may seem a little point-chasey, but the matchup is solid and he should receive plenty of playing time to justify his consideration in your lineups this evening. The Lakers have actually not been that horrible in terms of DK points allowed to small forwards on the season as a whole, but they’re not a matchup to be scared off of, as witnessed by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 75-point DK game on Monday and Barnes’ 43.5 DK points on Wednesday.
At this point in the NBA DFS season, most people know where a player’s average price point should be and it’s sort of easy to recognize when a player is relatively over or underpriced. Since I enter teams into GPPs for this series, I thought it would be interesting to create a Trend that more or less ignores Bargain Rating. Perhaps ownership will be down because people don’t want a “bad deal.” I might not want a bad deal in cash games either, but it might be worth taking the chance in GPPs.
Matthew Freedman is joined by Adam Levitan, Justin Phan, and Peter Jennings, who discuss NBA cash game strategies. Topics include optimality, safety, consistency, salary relief, stacking, and game type.
Kevin from The Sports Geek breaks down two of his winning NBA DFS lineups made from FantasyLabs tools.
However, Vegas lines and implied totals can be a little misleading. This isn’t a groundbreaking take, I know – Vegas is merely predicting point totals, whereas in fantasy sports we are also concerned with rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and so on. Those statistics are very closely tied together, as are all things in such an entangled sport as basketball, but you can see the issue with relying on a number that is only a small portion of what we’re trying to predict.
Trends of the Day
– Thursday: Plus/Minus of Players $7,000+ in 2A of B2B this Season, by John Daigle