We’ve been treated to some fantastic performances through the first two weeks of the NFL regular season, and Week 3 should be no less exciting, gifting us a 13-game main slate on Sunday, Sept. 23, at 1 p.m. ET.
For analysis on the smaller slates, consult Chris Raybon’s premium strategy pieces (released throughout the week).
In writing this piece, I’ve relied primarily on the FantasyLabs Models. This breakdown is less of a comprehensive analysis of each wide receiver and more of an introduction to this week’s players via our large suite of analytic DFS Tools. We’ll start with four high-priced wide receivers, follow with five pass-catchers at the top of our individual Pro Models and finish with the rest of the slate’s fantasy-relevant receivers.
For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.
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Highest-Priced Wide Receivers
This week, four wide receivers find themselves with top-five positional salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Michael Thomas: $8,900 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins: $8,300 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
- Odell Beckham Jr.: $8,200 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $7,900 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 53.5 Over/Under
Thomas’ 196 receptions through his first two seasons lead all NFL receivers in history, and through two weeks he’s maintained his aerial dominance with a league-best 28 catches (on 30 targets), which he’s turned into 269 yards and three touchdowns. We should expect him to regress at some point. There’s no way he’ll maintain his 93.3% catch rate. But the Saints are aggressively lining him up across the formation — 45 snaps wide right, 44 wide left and 30 in the slot — and are intent on feeding the ball to their alpha receiver, as evidenced by Thomas’ massive 0.38 target share.
Given his usage, it’s not a surprise that he enters Week 3 as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 37.0 DraftKings points per game. Thomas’ +18.19 Plus/Minus is almost unfathomable for a player with such a high salary.
Thomas has an intriguing matchup against the Falcons. Although they rank fourth as a team with a Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade of 83.8, they had a subpar coverage grade of only 67.2 against the Panther last week — the Falcons’ first game without two of their key defensive players and Pro-Bowlers in middle linebacker Deion Jones (foot, Injured Reserve) and strong safety Keanu Neal (knee, IR).
Carolina had four — four! — wide receivers score double-digit DraftKings points against Atlanta:
- Jarius Wright: 17.2 DraftKings points, 5-62-1 receiving on seven targets
- Devin Funchess: 14.7 DraftKings points, 7-77-0 receiving on nine targets
- D.J. Moore: 12.8 DraftKings points, 1-51-1 receiving on two targets
- Torrey Smith: 12.3 DraftKings points, 3-33-1 receiving on seven targets
If those guys can go into Atlanta and collectively put up 57 DraftKings points with quarterback Cam Newton (58.7% career completion rate), then Thomas has almost unlimited upside with Drew Brees (67.1%).
While many players underperform against teams they regularly face, Thomas has reverse division/non-division splits, performing his best in the games that matter most.
- Thomas vs. NFC South Opponents (12 games): 21.2 DraftKings points, +6.62 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating, 7.4 receptions, 95.8 yards, 0.58 touchdowns
- Thomas vs. Non-Division Opponents (21 games): 16.7 DraftKings points, +2.53 Plus/Minus, 57.1% Consistency Rating, 6.4 receptions, 71.5 yards, 0.48 touchdowns
The sample is small, but it’s worth noting that Thomas has done extraordinarily well against the Falcons (even away from the Coors Field of fantasy football). In fact, of any team that Thomas has faced more than once, the Falcons are the franchise against which he’s had the most success.
- Thomas vs. the Falcons (four games): 24 DraftKings points, +9.93 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating, 7.8 receptions, 102.5 yards, 0.75 touchdowns
Thomas has scored 20-plus DraftKings points against the Falcons in 3-of-4 games. Regression is eventually coming for Thomas, but maybe not in Week 3. Thomas leads the position with his median and ceiling projections, and he’s the highest-rated FanDuel wide receiver in the Freedman Model.
Other Saints receivers to consider are:
- Ted Ginn Jr. ($4,700 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel): Ginn (knee) has been limited in practice but is expected to play and has 16.8 points per game in PPR scoring in his five Saints games with a touchdown.
- Cameron Meredith ($3,800 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel): Meredith (knee) has been inactive because of missed practice time but is slated to play the Marques Colston slot role once up to speed.
- Tre’Quan Smith ($3,400 DraftKings; N/A FanDuel): Mysteriously unavailable on FanDuel, Smith is a high-upside third-rounder with 13 routes run last week.
- Austin Carr ($3,000 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel): Carr has played 76 snaps in place of Meredith over the past two weeks and drawn three targets.
DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-6) vs. New York Giants, 42 O/U
Hopkins is “just” the fantasy WR13 through two weeks, but there’s no reason to be alarmed. He’s still very much the receiver he was last year.
Here’s a comparison of his 2018 numbers with those from 2017:
- DraftKings points per game: 20.6 vs. 21.7
- Market share of targets: 0.36 vs. 0.35
- Market share of air yards: 0.45 vs. 0.45
- Targets per game: 11 vs. 11.6
- Red-zone targets per game: 1 vs. 1.3
- Average depth of targets (yards, aDOT): 16.9 vs. 12.9
The Texans have opened the year averaging just 18.5 points per game, which is nowhere near the 34.7 they averaged last year in quarterback Deshaun Watson’s starts, but Hopkins is still getting his usage. Watson doesn’t need to play like the Michael Jordan of fantasy football for Hopkins to put up a big game.
It’s very possible that Hopkins could face shadow coverage from Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins, but even if that happens, Hopkins should be fine. Jenkins has the reputation of being a shutdown corner, but he hasn’t had a PFF grade of even 70 since 2016, when he made his only Pro Bowl. Hopkins has a significant size advantage over Jenkins at 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds compared to Jenkins at 5-foot-10 and 193 pounds. And Jenkins has allowed nine receptions on 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown this season. If you’re interested in “Nuk,” his matchup with Jenkins won’t dissuade you.
Hopkins will have a high ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools, but it won’t be nearly as high as that of Thomas. If you roster Hopkins in tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack him with Watson. Since 2014, No. 1 wide receivers on average have had a 0.47 correlation with their quarterbacks. With Watson, Hopkins has had a 0.93 correlation. He’s the No. 1 FanDuel wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model.
More Texans wide receivers to keep in mind:
- Will Fuller ($5,900 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel): Fuller was stacked with Watson and Hopkins in just 0.82% of Millionaire Maker lineups last week and has averaged 23.0 DraftKings points in his five games with Watson.
- Bruce Ellington ($3,500 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel): The shifty slot specialist has run 73 routes this season and is locked in as the No. 3 receiver.
Odell Beckham Jr.: New York Giants (+6) at Houston Texans, 42 O/U
As prolific of a scorer as OBJ is with 38 touchdowns, Beckham’s 328 receptions and 4,586 yards are more than player in NFL history has had through his first 49 career games. He plays at such an elite level that whenever he has short-term production shortfalls, fantasy investors act as if he’s a poisoned asset.
With Beckham, touchdowns and big plays come in waves. He missed the final 12 games of 2017 and has yet to score a touchdown this season, so people have started to forget how dynamic he can be. OBJ is outside the top-three receivers in pricing and faces a Texans pass defense that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (23.3) to opposing wide receivers last season — and yet he might not have a double-digit ownership rate. That’s a mistake.
Just last week, the Texans allowed Titans “quarterback” Blaine Gabbert to give wide receivers Taywan Taylor and Corey Davis a combined 22.7 DraftKings points and 8-87-1 receiving line on 11 targets. As uninspiring as Giants quarterback Eli Manning has looked since last year with his 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt, he’s still good enough to funnel targets to Beckham, who has 24 on the season. Beckham’s 0.29 target share would’ve been a top-three mark last season, and he’s third this year with his 0.51 market share of air yards.
Even if this game goes under, Beckham could still have a 10-150-2 receiving performance. The Giants haven’t scored 30 points since Week 17 of 2015: They don’t need to score a lot for Beckham to exploit a fragile Texans secondary whose top cornerback (Aaron Colvin) plays primarily in the slot (51-of-65 snaps) and whose top outside corner (Johnathan Joseph) is 34 years old and hasn’t had a PFF coverage grade in the 80s since 2015.
One other Giants receiver to note:
- Sterling Shepard ($4,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel): Shepard is the clear No. 2 wide receiver but is bound to the slot (82-of-126 snaps) and less important to the passing attack than running back Saquon Barkley and tight end Evan Engram.
Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, 53.5 O/U
Last year, the Saints’ pass defense was fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA with a -11.3% mark, but this year they rank 31st and have allowed a league-high 61.8 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. Jones (calf) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but he is probable to play in Week 3 and has a juicy matchup.
Jones’ touchdown woes are legendary, but since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the fantasy WR3, averaging 20.5 DraftKings points across 63 contests despite averaging just 0.37 touchdowns per game. He’s the all-time NFL leader with 95.7 receiving yards per game: Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position. And in his 19 games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with 30.8 PPR points per game.
Last year against the Saints, Jones faced shadow coverage from cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who as a 2017 rookie played extremely well (87.9 PFF coverage grade) but this year has allowed a 7-137-1 receiving line on nine targets. Against the Saints and Lattimore specifically, Julio did well.
- Week 14, 2017: 14.8 DraftKings points, 5-98-0 receiving on 11 targets, 3-73-0 on 5 targets vs. Lattimore
- Week 16, 2017: 24.9 DraftKings points, 7-149-0 receiving on 11 targets, 6-140-0 on 9 targets vs. Lattimore
Jones leads all wide receivers with his +4000 odds to win the 2018 MVP award and is the No. 1 DraftKings wide receiver in the Levitan Model.
Other Falcons receivers to know:
- Mohamed Sanu ($3,800 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel): The slot man has just 33 low-upside yards on eight targets and one rush this year.
- Calvin Ridley ($3,700 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel): The problematic first-round rookie was targeted on five of his 21 Week 2 routes and converted his first NFL red-zone target into an 11-yard touchdown.
Model Wide Receivers
Besides Thomas, Hopkins and Julio, there are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Tyreek Hill: $8,500 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
- Nelson Agholor: $6,100 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
- Marquise Goodwin: $5,500 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Cooper Kupp: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
Tyreek Hill: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 55 O/U
Hill has 2,086 scrimmage yards and 20 all-purpose touchdowns since stealing the No. 1 job from an injured Jeremy Maclin 25 games ago. Since last season, Hill is the fantasy WR4 with 19.0 DraftKings points per game. For all the talk of his volatility and unreliability as a potential cash-game play, his 58.8% DraftKings Consistency Rating since 2016 is superior to those of many top-tier receivers over that span.
- Antonio Brown: 56.3%
- Odell Beckham: 50%
- Michael Thomas: 44.4%
- Julio Jones: 27.8%
On the midweek edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, Tyreek was highlighted as a potential chalk lock, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s the No. 1 wide receiver on a team averaging 40.0 points per game and led by the league’s most exciting quarterback — and the Chiefs-49ers over/under is approaching record levels.
Through two weeks, the Chiefs have absolutely punished Vegas. On a per-game basis, the Chiefs have drastically outperformed their year-to-date Vegas expectations. Specifically, the Chiefs have:
- Outscored their implied totals by 16.63 points (No. 2 in league),
- Surpassed their game total by 22 points (No. 1),
- And covered their spreads by 11.25 points (No. 5).
The Chiefs are big home favorites, and it’s true that Hill has underperformed in that situation since last year (11.7 DraftKings points per game, -2.90 Plus/Minus). It’s also true that under head coach Andy Reid, Arrowhead Stadium has had a league-worst 14-26-0 over/under record: No home team since 2013 has lost over bettors more money (-31% ROI) than the Chiefs. But that was with another quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is not just another quarterback.
Against a 49ers pass defense that last year was 28th with a 23.1% DVOA, Hill could have another big game. On Sunday morning, I will definitely look for action on Hill’s yardage prop. To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 40-23, which is good for a 63% win rate.
Hill has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the top-rated wideout in the Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
Another Chiefs receiver to consider in stacks:
- Sammy Watkins ($5,100 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel): Watkins got more yards last game (131) than he did in any game with the Rams last year.
Nelson Agholor: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47.5 O/U
UPDATE (9/22): Jeffery (shoulder, questionable) is not expected to play.
Nellie is in the smashiest of spots. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) has not yet been cleared for contact and is not expected to play this week. Wide receiver Mike Wallace (leg, IR) was injured last week and won’t return until later in the year (if at all). The team is so thin at the position that it re-signed former slot receiver Jordan Matthews, which could result in Agholor playing more out wide. While that’s not ideal for Agholor (56.4% of snaps in slot this year; 86.9% last year), he still should continue to see omnibus usage.
In Weeks 1-2, Agholor had 22 targets, two carries, one pass attempt and one punt return. His usage might even increase with top running backs Jay Ajayi (back) and Darren Sproles (hamstring) expected to sit.
And then there’s the return of quarterback Carson Wentz, who was the league’s presumptive Most Valuable Player at the time of his Week 14 season-ending injury last year. With Wentz in 2017, Agholor averaged 12.7 DraftKings points per game with a +3.64 Plus/Minus while fighting Jeffery for targets. As the No. 1 receiver now, Agholor has the upside for more, especially against a Colts pass defense that finished last season with a league-worst 28.5% DVOA and has allowed 28.4 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers in 2018.
Despite what the team says, Wentz (knee) is unlikely to be 100% until November at the earliest (per Dr. David Chao), but Agholor should still be able to spread his wings with a grounded Wentz.
Agholor is the highest-rated FanDuel wide receiver in the Raybon Model.
Marquise Goodwin: San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 55 O/U
Goodwin (quad) exited Week 1 after playing 17 snaps, and he missed Week 2. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday and is a true game-time decision for Week 3. Given that the Chiefs defense’ has allowed a league-high 860 yards and 48 first downs via the passing game — and since this matchup has a slate-high over/under — Goodwin is of special interest to DFS players looking to stack 49ers-Chiefs.
Across Weeks 13-17 last year, in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s five starts, Goodwin was the fantasy WR11 with 16.3 DraftKings points per game. Of course, it helps that teammate Pierre Garcon was out for all of those games with a neck injury, and it’s possible that Goodwin’s production had more to do with Garcon’s absence than Garoppolo’s presence in the starting lineup: When Garcon was out and C.J. Beathard was the starting quarterback in Weeks 9-12, Goodwin was comparably productive, especially relative to what he did in the first half of the season when Garcon was playing as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver.
- Goodwin in Weeks 1-8 (with Garcon), 2017: 7.31 DraftKings points, +0.86 Plus/Minus, 37.5% Consistency Rating, 5.8 targets, 2.5 receptions, 43.6 yards, 0 touchdowns
- Goodwin in Weeks 9-12 (without Garcon, with Beathard): 12.6 DraftKings points, +5.68 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating, 5.3 targets, 2.3 receptions, 76.3 yards, 0.33 touchdowns
- Goodwin in Weeks 13-16 (without Garcon, with Garoppolo): 16.3 DraftKings points, +5.19 Plus/Minus, 60.0% Consistency Rating, 8.6 targets, 5.8 receptions, 76.1 yards, 0.2 touchdowns
Goodwin clearly did better with Garoppolo than without him — it helps that Garoppolo was able to target Goodwin more because the 49ers were better with Garoppolo and able to run more offensive plays — but the splits in Goodwin’s yardage and touchdown totals are notably linked to Garcon, not the team’s quarterback situation.
But that’s not to say that Goodwin doesn’t have upside. His world-class speed (4.27-second 40 time) makes him a threat to score whenever he touches the ball — and the Chiefs have coughed up 58.4 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers this year.
A viable leverage play on Hill, Goodwin is the No. 1 FanDuel receiver in the Bales Model.
Other 49ers receivers to consider:
- Pierre Garcon ($5,300 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel): Garcon leads the team with 62 routes and 166 air yards but has just 78 yards receiving.
- Dante Pettis ($4,300 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel): A dynamic collegiate return man and underrated receiver, Pettis is to Garoppolo what 2012 T.Y. Hilton was to Colts quarterback Andrew Luck.
- Trent Taylor ($3,700 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel): Taylor is a small (5-foot-8, 181 pounds) and agile (6.74-second three-cone) Patriots-esque slot-dominant 2017 fifth-rounder with four targets per game in Garoppolo’s seven 49ers starts.
Robert Woods & Cooper Kupp: Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 48 O/U
Under Sean McVay, the Rams led the league last year with 29.9 points per game, and they’re back at it this year with an average of 33.5. That will almost certainly regress, but the Rams’ offense was no fluke in 2017.
McVay has helped quarterback Jared Goff become one of the most efficient passers in the league. Goff had league-best marks with 12.9 yards per completion and 7.72 net adjusted yards per attempt last season. Those marks are even higher this year at 14.0 and 8.56. Although so much of the offense is funneled through All-Pro running back Todd Gurley, there’s still more than enough opportunities to go around because the Rams play at such a fast pace: Last year, they were first in the league with 27.90 seconds per play in situation-neutral scenarios. And with an improved defense this season, the offense could have even more opportunities than it had last year.
All of that offensive goodness last year benefited Woods and Kupp. Woods missed four games due to injury, but he still led the team’s receivers with 13.1 DraftKings points per game, and Kupp was a PPR machine as a rookie slot receiver, leading all Rams wideouts with 94 targets, 62 receptions and 869 yards. He was even top-five in the league with 23 red-zone targets.
This year Woods and Kupp are still very much involved in the offense. Woods leads the team with 18 targets and a 0.44 market share of air yards. And Kupp is top-three in the league with six red-zone targets: He’s tied for first with four inside the 10-yard line.
Both Woods and Kupp have seen price reductions on DraftKings, presumably because of Gurley’s Week 2 dominance and also their matchup against a Chargers secondary that entered the year as PFF’s No. 2 unit. But the Rams are now favored to win Super Bowl 53 — they also jumped over the Patriots to become the No. 1 team in The Action Network NFL Power Rankings — and their receivers are too good to be downgraded. Plus, without Pro-Bowl edge rusher Joey Bosa (foot) to apply pressure, the Chargers have struggled to open the season, allowing 41.6 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers.
Woods has a position-high nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models. Kupp is the highest-rated DraftKings receiver in the Raybon Model.
Another Rams receiver:
- Brandin Cooks ($7,000 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel): Cooks through Weeks 1-2 has more scrimmage yards (252) than Watkins had with the Rams last year in his two best games combined (188).
Wide Receiver Rundown
Here’s a quick look at the remaining fantasy-relevant receivers on the slate.
Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs: Minnesota Vikings (-16.5) vs. Buffalo Bills, 40.5 O/U
- Thielen: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
- Diggs: $7,700 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
- Thielen and Diggs have a combined 0.84 market share of the team’s air yards and are facing a historically large September underdog.
Davante Adams, Randall Cobb & Geronimo Allison: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Washington Redskins, 45 O/U
- Adams: $7,600 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- Cobb: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
- Allison: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
- Since 2016, 1) Adams leads the league with 24 receiving touchdowns, 2) Cobb has 15.7 DraftKings points per game in the 20 contests he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers have played together when healthy, and 3) Allison has 12.1 PPR points per game when seeing four-plus targets.
A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd & John Ross: Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Carolina Panthers, 43 O/U
- Green: $7,500 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
- Boyd: $3,700 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
- Ross: $3,500 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
- Green is first in the league with four touchdowns receiving and fourth with a 0.47 market share of air yards; Boyd has run one fewer route than Green (69 vs. 68) and been targeted just three fewer times (17 vs. 14); Ross is an upside player with just eight scrimmage yards.
Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams & Travis Benjamin: Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Los Angeles Rams, 48 O/U
- Allen: $7,300 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel
- T. Williams: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- M. Williams: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Benjamin: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel
- The Rams have held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 11.4 DraftKings points per game and opposing teams to 11.75 points below their implied Vegas totals.
T.Y. Hilton & Ryan Grant: Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles, 47.5 O/U
- Hilton: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
- Grant: $4,100 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel
- As the No. 1 receiver, Hilton has averaged 10.5 PPR points per game as a road dog with Luck vs. 15.3 in all other situations; Grant is playing snaps (108) and running routes (69) but trails Hilton and tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron in pass-catching supremacy.
Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson & Martavis Bryant: Oakland Raiders (+3) at Miami Dolphins, 44.5 O/U
- Cooper: $6,600 DraftKings; $6,900 FanDuel
- Nelson: $4,400 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Bryant: $3,400 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Cooper dominated in Week 2 with a Michael Thomas-esque 10-116-0 receiving line on 10 targets; Since breaking out in 2011, Nelson has averaged 17.8 PPR points across 74 games with Rodgers but just 9.8 in 18 games with anyone else at quarterback; Bryant (according to Pro Football Reference) last week caught four receptions on three targets, but that’s clearly an error — because there’s no way Martavis is still in the NFL.
Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas & Courtland Sutton: Denver Broncos (+5) at Baltimore Ravens, 44.5 O/U
- Sanders: $6,400 DraftKings; $6,900 FanDuel
- Thomas: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Sutton: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
- Sanders’ ascendance in the offense (0.42 market share of yards) correlates with his shift to the slot (71.0% of routes); Thomas has descended from 15.5 yards per reception in 2013 to 7.4 this year; Sutton is the clear No. 3 receiver with 60 routes (Sanders, 69; Thomas, 63) and nearly made some perception-changing plays in Week 2.
Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson & Jakeem Grant: Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders, 44.5 O/U
- Stills: $5,800 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
- Amendola: $4,400 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
- Parker: $4,100 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- Wilson: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
- Grant: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
- Stills has averaged just 8.9 PPR points across his 36 games with Parker; Amendola leads the team with 69 slot snaps and eight slot targets; Parker (finger) is probable to play (and disappoint) this weekend; Wilson has six-plus opportunities in each game as an offensive weapon lining up in the backfield, in the slot and out wide; Grant (a 2016 Freedman favorite) has run just 29 routes but leads the team with 11 targets, 2,24 yards per route (PFF) and 133 air yards.
Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook & Donte Moncrief: Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, 39 O/U
- Cole: $5,600 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
- Westbrook: $4,600 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Moncrief: $3,800 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Cole has averaged 18.5 DraftKings points since emerging as the No. 1 receiver seven games ago; Westbrook has run 78.7% of his routes from the slot and leads the team with 80 yards after the catch; Moncrief has a team-high 14 targets and 219 air yards.
Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals (+5) vs. Chicago Bears, 38.5 O/U
- $5,400 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Old Man River (hamstring) was limited in practice this week but is probable to play and has a position-high floor projection in our Models and a 99% FanDuel leverage score.
Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel & Anthony Miller: Chicago Bears (-5) at Arizona Cardinals, 38.5 O/U
- Robinson: $5,400 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Gabriel: $3,800 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Miller: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
- Robinson has played 95.6% of the offensive snaps and is second in the league with a 0.54 market share of air yards; Gabriel is a scripted player yet to get a fourth-quarter opportunity; Miller has a touchdown but just 25 scrimmage yards to his name.
Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall & Jaron Brown: Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys, 41 O/U
- Lockett: $5,300 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Marshall: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
- Brown: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
- Lockett has run 67.1% of his routes from the slot with Doug Baldwin (knee) out; Marshall leads the team with 12 targets; Brown is a sixth-year upside tease who was probably the sixth-best wide receiver on the 2012 Clemson Tigers.
Devin Funchess, D.J. Moore, Jarius Wright & Torrey Smith: Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 43 O/U
- Funchess: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
- Moore: $3,800 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Wright: $3,700 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
- Smith: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel
- Funchess has averaged 14.2 PPR points across the 10 games tight end Greg Olsen (foot) has missed since last year; Moore is an upside 21-year-old first-rounder with a team-high 3.64 yards per route thanks to a 51-yard touchdown on two targets and 14 routes; Wright has run 82.5% of his routes from the slot and has a low 5.3 aDOT indicative of high-percentage attempts; Smith is the No. 2 wide receiver by routes (75 vs. 79 for Funchess) but the No. 4 receiver by excitement level.
Michael Crabtree, John Brown & Willie Snead: Baltimore Ravens (-5) vs. Denver Broncos, 44.5 O/U
- Crabtree: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
- Brown: $4,800 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
- Snead: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Crabby leads the team with 16 targets and a whopping 93 routes; JoBro has a quiet +8.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus through two weeks thanks to his team-leading 136 yards and two touchdowns receiving; Snead runs 85.7% of his routes from the slot and will face All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris Jr.
Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor & Rishard Matthews: Tennessee Titans (+9.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 39 O/U
UPDATE (9/22): Quarterback Marcus Mariota (elbow, questionable) is a theoretical game-time decision but expected not to start.
- Davis: $4,400 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
- Matthews: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
- Taylor: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
- Davis is the only player on the Titans with double-digit targets (20); Matthews has two receptions and -1 air yard; Taylor has been targeted on 5-of-13 routes.
Paul Richardson, Jamison Crowder & Josh Doctson: Washington Redskins (+2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers, 45 O/U
- Richardson: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
- Crowder: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
- Doctson: $3,700 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Richardson leads the team with his 10.3 aDOT and will face the Packers without cornerback Kevin King (groin); Crowder trails running back Chris Thompson, tight end Jordan Reed and Richardson and Doctson with his eight targets and 40 yards receiving; Doctson is the wrong man with the wrong quarterback in Alex Smith.
Cole Beasley, Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin, Michael Gallup & Terrance Williams: Dallas Cowboys (+1) at Seattle Seahawks, 41 O/U
- Beasley: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
- Hurns: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Austin: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
- Gallup: $3,500 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
- Williams: $3,300 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
- I won’t justify the existence of this Dez Bryant-less position group with a blurb.
Kelvin Benjamin & Zay Jones: Buffalo Bills (+16.5) at Minnesota Vikings, 40.5 O/U
- Benjamin: $3,700 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Jones: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
- Benjamin and Jones combined have 359 air yards — and just eight yards after the catch.
Positional Breakdowns & News
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Julio Jones
Photo credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports