This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Thanksgiving shmoney time.
- Dak Prescott ($5,700 DK, $8,200 FD) vs. BUF
- Josh Allen ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD) at DAL
By far, the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate in our NFL Player Models belongs to Dak Prescott. He had a predictable dud against the Patriots’ league-best pass defense last week and an unforeseen hiccup back in Week 4 at New Orleans, but aside from that, he has posted at least 18.22 DraftKings points in every other game, going over 21.5 in eight of those nine.
On a short slate marred by the fantasy-deficient offenses of the Bears and Lions, you have to take your chances and bet on Dak dancing his way to value despite the tough matchup at a discounted price tag of just $5,700 on DK.
On FanDuel, pricing makes the quarterback on the other side, Josh Allen, more intriguing. While curtailing his interceptions to the tune of just two over his past seven games, Allen has registered no fewer than 17.26 FanDuel points in 10-of-11 games.
Against a slightly below-average Cowboys pass defense ranked 18th in Football Outsiders‘ pass-defense DVOA, odds are the floor remains high for Allen this week. Matt Ryan has a similar median projection, but as he’s dealing with a banged up receiving corps and has failed to crack double-digit FanDuel points in two of his last five outings, he profiles as a tournament-only play.