The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Eric Bledsoe is averaging a +5.56 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating against Detroit this season while Kyrie Irving has posted a -7.66 and 40% marks, respectively, in five matchups against Indiana. Their projections in our NBA Player Models line up with the continuation, as Bledsoe’s Projected Plus/Minus is nearly 2 points better than Kyrie’s.
Darren Collison has hit value only once more than you or I have over the past eight games, but he still projects as the top value at the position due to the lack of alternatives.
Paying up at least to Ricky Rubio may be a better bet than settling for Collison. Rubio has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, posting a +3.10 Plus/Minus over that span. Even though there are no guarantees his shot will fall, especially on the road, he came out aggressively looking for his shot early in Game 1 and ended up finishing with 15 points.
Over his last three meetings with Utah, James Harden is averaging 39.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 3.7 steals, which translates to 72.0 DraftKings points and a +15.96 Plus/Minus — not bad against the league’s No. 2 defense. The Beard has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position and a slate-leading 14 Pro Trends.
Outside of a baseline throwdown to kick off scoring in the third quarter, Jaylen Brown disappeared offensively in Game 1, finishing with 2 points on 1-of-5 shooting. That said, he’s more likely to get it going at home than most of the uninspiring options at the position on the road. Brown leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Luke Kennard and Wayne Ellington project as top-three values at the position on both sites. I’d prefer to roll with Kennard because his shot has been falling (13-of-23 from 3 over his past three games) while Ellington has been ice cold (5-of-19). Also note that they’ve been negatively correlated this season (-0.13).
The Bucks tend to stomp the Pistons so bad that Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s average DraftKings Plus/Minus in four games against them this season is slightly negative (-2.08). The Greek Freak also trails Harden in projected points on FanDuel despite costing $300 more.
There’s no doubt the Pacers will look to get their leading scorer (sans Victor Oladipo), Bojan Bogdanovic, going after he scored only 12 points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 1 — the question is whether he can capitalize against a Celtics defense that has limited him to 26.3% shooting over the past two matchups. Still, his scoring upside is enticing on a slate with limited options, and he’s the top value among small forwards on FanDuel.
Gordon Hayward is averaging a +6.29 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games, and he’s in position to continue that trend with Marcus Smart out. Hayward played 30 minutes in Game 1 and our models have him projected for 29.2 tonight.
Jayson Tatum was the only Celtic who didn’t struggle from the field in Game 1, shooting 6-of-11 overall and 3-of-3 from downtown. He’s a top-three value at the position on DraftKings and also the highest-floor option on FanDuel.
P.J. Tucker has hit value in four straight games and posted Plus/Minuses of +12.1 on DraftKings and +8.45 in Game 1 against Utah.
Much like Draymond Green, Tucker is a player who opposing defenses would prefer to take shots in the postseason, so Tucker could be in for another solid all-around performance. He’s the top value at the position on FanDuel.
Despite playing only 26 minutes due to foul trouble and scoring a modest 7 points, Thaddeus Young showcased his DFS upside by producing in every other category, finishing with 6 assists, 5 steals, 4 rebounds, and 1 block. He’s the chalk on FanDuel but is nice GPP play on DraftKings, where his projected ownership is 5-8%.
Minutes are the biggest issue for Andre Drummond, who posted a 12-point, 12-rebound double-double in 26 minutes in Game 1 — wait, I lied; him being a shell of his usual self statistically on the road is also a legit concern.
He’s averaging a -1.9 Plus/Minus and 48% Consistency Rating on the road compared to +6.2 and 80%, respectively, at home, per our NBA Trends tool. Still, his price tag is discounting the risk way too much — our models project him as the top value on the entire slate on both sites.
Aron Baynes is the top punt play at the position and could see a few extra minutes if Al Horford (illness) can’t go. He only scored 2 points in 23 minutes in Game 1, but he did grab 9 rebounds and has sneaky double-double potential.
Brook Lopez put up 14 points and 4 blocks in just 24 minutes in Game 1, and given Drummond’ struggles on the road and Lopez’s lower projected ownership (9-12%) on both sites, he makes for a nice GPP pivot off Drummond.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports