The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
If you’re also interested in the single-game formats, be sure to check out the following pieces by Matt LaMarca:
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
Kyle Lowry is never a comfortable bet in the playoffs, but he has dropped 20 points in three of five meetings against the 76ers this season. He has been a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel this postseason, hitting value 66% of the time on the former compared to 33% on the latter, but our NBA Player Models project him with a top-two Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jamal Murray scored 23-plus points and grabbed four boards in both games against the Blazers this calendar year. Save for his Game 3 disappearance against the Spurs, Murray has been on fire, posting a +5.73 Plus/Minus and 90% Consistency Rating.
Garry Harris is averaging a +4.44 DraftKings Plus/Minus in three games against Portland this season, twice posting usage rates (29.6%, 23.6%) well above his season average of 20.0%. Harris leads all 2 guards in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Blazers coach Terry Stotts went with Seth Curry and the added floor spacing he provides for 27 minutes in the series clincher against OKC. It’s not guaranteed to happen again — Curry played 13-18 minutes in the other four games — but he’s projected for single-digit ownership on both sites, giving him a top-two Leverage Score on each.
As John Ewing points out in our Raptors-76ers Game 2 preview, Kawhi Leonard is 14-0 in his career against the 76ers, and that success has translated to DFS as well: Kawhi is averaging a +12.41 Plus/Minus against the 76ers this season. Our models project him as the top value at small forward by a wide margin.
In two games against Portland in April, Torrey Craig put up lines of 18/7/1 and 13/4/2, averaging a +12.7 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He didn’t crack 27 minutes in either of those games, but is projected to play 32 tonight.
Pascal Siakam is averaging 18.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in five games this season, good for a +7.51 Plus/Minus. His Projected Plus/Minus is top-three among all players on the slate on both sites.
Paul Millsap‘s salary is $4,800 on FanDuel and DraftKings, giving him a top-five Bargain Rating on the former. As you know if you follow my NBA props pieces on The Action Network, Millsap has been a different player at home compared to on the road this season.
- Home DK/FD: +4.4/+3.0 Plus/Minus | 61%/52% Consistency
- Away DK/FD: -4.1/-5.0 Plus/Minus | 30%/35% Consistency
(Splits via our NBA Trends tool.)
Nikola Jokic is averaging 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists in three games against Portland this season, propelling him to an average Plus/Minus of +12.21 on DraftKings. He exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one of the seven games against San Antonio and has the top DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus on the slate tonight.
The biggest concern for Jokic tonight is the quick turnaround after playing Saturday night, but he has been solid at home this on two days of rest or fewer, averaging 51.61 DraftKings points, a +3.0 Plus/Minus, and 54% Consistency Rating, according to the Trends tool.
Boban Marjanovic didn’t do much of anything in 10 minutes in Game 1, finishing with just 2 points and 1 rebound. That said, he’s averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and is fully capable of filling it up in a hurry. He’s a top-three value on DraftKings thanks to his $3,300 salary, though he’s a poor value at $4,600 on FanDuel.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) and power forward Paul Millsap (4)
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports