The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Ben Simmons is averaging 45.11 DraftKings points and a +6.11 Plus/Minus with Joel Embiid (rest, out) — a 7.3-point increase from his norm, per our NBA On/Off tool. For his matchup with the Mavericks in Dallas tonight, Simmons is the highest-rated (player who primarily plays) point guard on the slate in the Phan NBA Pro Model.
Emmanuel Mudiay has registered at least 21 points, five rebounds and four assists in three of his past four games and projects to play over 30 minutes for the eighth time in his past 10 games.
Collin Sexton has posted a +5.58 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games and should have free rein to pad his stats in Cleveland’s tank-off against Phoenix tonight. This is especially true if Kevin Love (shoulder) is held out, as the fantasy production of Sexton and Love has been negatively correlated this season (-0.17 correlation coefficient).
We’ve reached the point of the NBA season when most players are mentally and physically spent and DGAF levels are at an all-time high. There’s more inherent volatility in projections, and forecasting nightly results becomes more of an art than a science. Just as you have to understand motivational incentives to good college basketball bettor late in the season to spot when, for instance, a revenge spot will influence what the “correct number” should be in terms of a point spread, playing NBA DFS (or betting on the league) in April requires a similar dual role of forecaster and psychologist.
I say that to say this: From the looks of it, Devin Booker is looking to drop 50 in every game from here on out.
It’s been a week and a half since Booker has jacked up fewer than 27 field-goal attempts in a game, and he’s averaging 47.3 points per game over his last four while finding time to add 7.3 assists as well. Every other member of the Suns’ starting five is out tonight, but really, that’s irrelevant because Booker is the Suns’ starting five. He’s posted a +14.76 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 90% Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and his 83.4-point projected ceiling is nearly 10 points higher than any other player on the slate. He’s the rare player who I wouldn’t argue against 100% exposure for.
Suns-Cavs is also a match for the Bet Labs PRO System “Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs,” which has produced a 55.2% win rate toward the over since 2015.
Walter Lemon Jr. posted 19 points, six assists, four rebounds, four steals and one block in 31 minutes on Saturday for the Bulls, and the second-year man out of Bradley projects as the top value at the position for Monday’s affair with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
Wayne Ellington has jacked up 9.3 triples per game over his last three and could continue to be looked to for offense with Blake Griffin (knee) out against the Pacers tonight. Ellington has a top-three player rating in the Phan Model on FanDuel.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are both DNP-rest candidates and have negative Projected Plus/Minuses. Giannis is the better value on DraftKings while Kawhi is the better value on FanDuel.
With four-fifths of the Suns’ starting lineup on the shelf, Josh Jackson projects for the highest usage rate on the team after Booker and owns the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings.
Joe Harris has quietly produced a +3.98 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over his past 10 games. Brooklyn’s fifth-year sharpshooter is a top-four rated player in the Phan Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel for tonight’s home tilt with the Bucks.
With Rodions Kurucs (knee) unlikely to go, fellow wing DeMarre Carroll should also push for 30 minutes and is the top value at small forward on FanDuel.
With Love questionable for the Cavs, Tobias Harris is the top stud by default with the 76ers sans both Embiid and Jimmy Butler (back) for its road date with Dallas.
Seven-foot-one second-year big man Luke Kornet profiles as the top value at power forward after stuffing the stat sheet with 17 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three steals and three blocks in 36 minutes Saturday in MSG against the Heat.
Though he usually plays the 5 more than the 4, Larry Nance Jr. is eligible at the latter and has played 30-plus minutes in three of the past four games and exceeded salary-base expectations in five of his past six. Especially if Love sits, Nance Jr. makes for a nice late-swap pivot option off Phoenix’s expected starting center, Richaun Holmes, in the same game.
Andre Drummond owns the top Projected Plus/Minus among stud centers on the slate for his matchup in Indiana, but even with Griffin sidelined, Drummond doesn’t come without risk. The former UConn Huskie is averaging a -0.1 Plus/Minus and 51% Consistency Rating on the road compared to respective marks of +5.7 and 78% on the road this season, per our NBA Trends tool.
Karl-Anthony Towns has a higher projected floor than Drummond for his matchup with the Jusuf Nurkic-less Blazers.
Mitchell Robinson has taken over as the starting center for DeAndre Jordan in New York, and the raw but promising rookie has posted double-doubles in four of his past five games and hasn’t swatted less than two shots in a game since Feb. 1. Robinson is a top-three value on both sites.
Foul trouble is always a risk going against Towns, but Enes Kanter showed he can play 30-plus minutes if necessary last game, finishing with 20 points and 15 boards in 34 minutes Saturday against the Pistons.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
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