The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
The makeup of this year’s Clippers roster means that Stephen Curry will almost always find himself defending minimal offensive threats like Patrick Beverley, Garrett Temple or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Curry used the extra energy to put himself in position for 22 rebound chances in Game 1 (per NBA Stats). He’s averaging 55.06 DraftKings points per game against the Clippers this season, and the added rebounding upside gives Curry the highest ceiling projection on the slate in our NBA Player Models.
Caris LeVert is averaging a +3.33 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over his past 10 games, including 36.5 DraftKings points and an +11.2 Plus/Minus against the 76ers in Game 1. The 76ers defense struggles against creators like LeVert, who hasn’t scored fewer than 32 DraftKings points in his three games against them this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander saw a playing-time spike to 34 minutes in Game 1, and our models have him projected for more minutes (33) than similarly priced players like Patrick Beverley (32.0) and Spencer Dinwiddie (28.4).
Jimmy Butler is averaging 45.35 DraftKings points and a +10.83 Plus/Minus in five games against the Nets this season. His teammates should give him more help tonight than they did in their disaster of a Game 1, but Butler still has huge upside as one of the cheapest players with a projected ceiling of 50-plus fantasy points.
Lou Williams is averaging 39.6 DraftKings points and a +9.31 Plus/Minus in four games against the Dubs this season. You need offense to beat the Dubs, so Sweet Lou isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon and is a top-three value on both sites tonight.
Klay Thompson was quiet in Game 1 (12 points on 5-of-14 shooting), but he’s the top value at the position on FanDuel and the second-best on DraftKings. As the cheapest member of Golden State’s starting five, Klay offers nice GPP leverage.
Kevin Durant has been a poor DFS value all season long, posting a -1.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 41% Consistency Rating for the season.
Still, Durant is priced down to $8,000, giving him a top-three rating among all players in the Phan Model and making him a nice pivot off Steph.
J.J. Redick is an obvious bounce-back candidate after finishing with more fouls (6) than points (5) in 22.6 minutes in Game 1. Our models have him projected for 32 minutes tonight, and he’s averaging 18.8 points per game this season when he plays 30-plus.
DeMarre Carroll held Tobias Harris and Mike Scott scoreless on a combined 40 possessions, and Carroll’s defense should continue to allow him to push for 30 minutes a game. Priced at $4,000, Carroll is the top value at the position on FanDuel, and though he’s slightly more expensive on DraftKings ($4,400), he’s still worth a look there because of his relatively low projected ownership (17-20%).
Given all the matchup problems the Warriors present, Doc Rivers is likely to continue to live with leaving Draymond Green open. Draymond is averaging 39.45 DraftKings points and a +7.97 Plus/Minus against the Clippers this season and scored 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting along with 7 rebounds and 7 assists in Game 1. He has triple-double potential when he’s engaged offensively like this.
The Lou Williams-Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll is shaping up as the Clippers’ best means of generating offense against the Dubs. Harrell poured in 26 points on 15 shots in 29.7 minutes in Game 1 en route to 46.0 DraftKings points and a +16.36 Plus/Minus.
‘Trez should continue to see heavy usage and owns the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position for tonight’s slate.
Not to be outdone by Philly in the questionable big men department, the Nets are listing Ed Davis questionable with a sprained shoulder. Davis put up 12 points and 16 boards in 25 minutes in Game 1 and will have similar upside if he’s able to suit up tonight.
Joel Embiid posted a monster 22-point, 15-rebound double-double with 5 blocks and 4 assists in 24 minutes in Game 1, but his status is up in the air for Game 2, as per usual. He provides immense value if you need someone to have your back for illegally using your cell phone on the bench, but he still has one of the lowest Projected Plus/Minuses of all studs on the slate.
Boban Marjanovic put up 26.25 DraftKings points in 15 minutes in Game 1 and is averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the past year. Boban also has a -0.35 correlation with Embiid, and given that Embiid is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate if he plays, Boban would be a shrewd pivot.
DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 11.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists in only 19.9 minutes per game against the Clippers this season. Boogie fouled out in 21 minutes in Game 1 and his defensive shortcomings could cap his minutes, but especially with the Clippers leaving him open on the perimeter, he could put up a big stat line if he’s able to play minutes in the upper 20s. That and his negative correlations with Steph (-0.34) and Draymond (-0.23) cements him as an appealing tournament option.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.