The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
DFS sites are offering one-game showdown slates for Friday night’s Game 6 featuring the Golden State Warriors at the Los Angeles Clippers at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
If you’re new to single-game formats, be sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s work on the subject:
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
Golden State Warriors
The best way I can describe the ruthlessly efficient level at which Kevin Durant is operating at is this: I ended up scrolling through 12 of his game logs before finding an instance of him shooting worse than 50% from the field, and in the game directly proceeding that, he shot an ungodly 12-of-13.
KD has hit value in all five games of the series and — surprise, surprise — he has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than any other player on the slate.
Save for a strong positive relationship to Andrew Bogut (0.40), the correlation of KD’s fantasy production to that of his teammates has been negligible this season, so he should work no matter what type of lineup construction you’re using.
Draymond Green is $200 more than Klay Thompson but sweeps him across the board in all relevant metrics: Projected floor/median/ceiling Plus/Minus, and points per dollar (Pts/Sal). Klay usually has to go nuts from deep to realize his upside — which he very well could — but Draymond’s unique brand almost triple doubles like 17/7/7 and 8/6/10 make him a more well-rounded DFS play.
Today’s winner of the random-dude-who-probably-won’t-go-off-but-is-popping-in-our-models-so-hey-you-never-know-he-just-might award goes to … Alfonzo McKinnie.
The undrafted second-year pro checks in at first on the team in Pts/Sal and fourth behind only KD, Steph, and Draymond in Projected Plus/Minus. McKinnie is somewhat of a counterintuitive play; variance is more likely to benefit someone like Kevin Looney or Jordan Bell, who could fill the void at center if Bogut gets in foul trouble and/or Steve Kerr decides to go small. McKinnie did log nearly 18 minutes in the 132-105 win in Game 3, however, and would stand to benefit if his teammates stop messing around and go blow out LA tonight.
Los Angeles Clippers
Lou Williams has been the epitome of boom-or-bust in this series. He cruised to a Plus/Minus of at least +11.68 on DraftKings in three of the games but finished at -9.86 or worse in the other two. He’s a solid third on the team in Projected Plus/Minus, but I could see a game theory-based fade working out here, as recency bias will be strong, his price has increased, and the Warriors could aggressively ty to get the ball out of his hands since he was the primary catalyst in both Clippers wins.
If you roll with Williams, use our Stacks Builder to stack him with teammates whose production has been correlated with his, such as new starting center JaMychal Green (0.28) and Williams’ pick-and-role accomplice, Montrezl Harrell (0.14). As we saw in Game 5 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing just 19 minutes, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander are negative correlated (-0.11).
Danilo Gallinari is the best value on the Clippers in the most technical sense (he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus), but Patrick Beverley is right up there with him and is priced for $2,000 less.
Beverley has been one of the better DFS plays on DraftKings this season (+4.82 avg. Plus/Minus, 55% Consistency), which is mostly a credit to his Draymond-like ability to contribute in every category. Also aiding in Beverley’s cause is an uptick in playing time compared to the regular season; Doc has left him on the floor for at least 31 minutes in four of the five games, including stints of 36-plus in each of he past two.
From a game-theory perspective, it makes sense to buy Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet in bounce-back spots. Both players have been inconsistent, but the former is more appealing because he’s been adept at getting his own shot at times — he had 18 points on 16 shots in Game 1 and 25 on 18 in Game 4.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have been keen on keeping a defender (usually Thompson) superglued to Shamet — aside from the time that they, you know, messed around and allowed one the most epic comebacks in NBA postseason history.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35)
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports