The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,500 New York Yankees (-200) at Kansas City Royals
We have an oddly weak pitching pool to choose from on Tuesday’s 10-game slate. No offense is implied for less than 3.6 runs, as the top pitchers on the slate deal with some combination of challenging matchups, favorable hitting weather, or difficult park factors.
That makes for an interesting strategy discussion. On the one hand, finding a pitcher who could pop for 25+ DraftKings points is extra valuable when nobody is projecting for even 19. On the other hand, it might make more sense to save your salary for hitters, since so many offenses are projecting well. If you’re going with the former route, Schlittler is the obvious option.
Not only is he elite at keeping runs off the board with a 1.50 ERA through 11 starts, but he has tremendous upside. His strikeout rate is just under 30%, but his swinging strike rate suggests he’s been a bit unlucky if anything. The Royals are a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team against righties, but the Yankees’ young star has the stuff to strike out anyone.
That upside is crucial at his price point. Schlittler scoring in the low 20s while the next-best pitcher puts up 18 probably doesn’t win you a tournament, and that’s the case with all of the top pitchers on today’s slate. Since Schlittler’s ownership projection is lower than some of the other options in his price range, he’s my favorite option, even with the most expensive price of any player on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson (L) $5,700 New York Mets (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Peterson is tied with Aaron Nola ($7,200) for the Pts/Sal lead among pitchers tonight. They have virtually identical Vegas data, and similar ERA and strikeout rates, but Peterson checks in at $1,500 cheaper, making him my preferred option, at least for tournaments.
The key difference between the two value options is the matchup. Peterson is facing a Reds team that has a top-ten wRC+ against lefties but also strikes out at a top-five rate. Nola’s opponent, the Padres, is a bottom-ten offense against righties but with a considerably lower strikeout rate.
What that means for us is that Peterson has a wider range of outcomes, as he’s more likely to get shelled, but also has a better chance of putting up big numbers. If their salaries were closer, that would make this a real debate – and make Nola the clear cash game option. However, they aren’t, and with some expensive hitter options, Peterson is the only one that still allows you to roster one of the top pitchers as well.
I’m willing to lean into that risk tonight, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it blows up in my face, either.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kyle Harrison (L) $9,700 Milwaukee Brewers (-188) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
In a vacuum, I prefer Harrison to Schlittler, given that his projections and season-long numbers are virtually identical and he’s $800 cheaper. However, the Cardinals have a bottom-three strikeout rate against lefties, and Harrison is projecting as the most popular pitcher on the slate. I’d be willing to overlook one of those data points, but not both in GPPs. With that said, he’s a fine cash game option if you’re struggling to find the extra salary for Schlittler.
Chase Burns (R) $10,000 Cincinnati Reds (-125) at New York Mets
I’m a little surprised to see Burns with the lowest ownership projection of the top three arms today, all of whom have very similar median and ceiling numbers. Burns has arguably the best matchup, with the Mets ranking dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and just as much upside as the other two options. His strikeout rate is the lowest of the three, but his swinging strike rate is the highest, so he’s due some positive regression. He’s my favorite GPP option if you’re spending up at all, with the $300 premium over Harrison not especially hard to come by.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
There are plenty of strong offensive options tonight, but the standout group is, unsurprisingly, the Dodgers. They’re taking on the Rockies at home and have a slate-leading 5.6-run implied total against lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,800).
The Dodgers’ 119 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is tied for third-best in the majors, and Freeland has an ERA north of 7.00 coming into the contest. Yes, that’s partially inflated by playing home games at Coors Field, but his xERA and FIP are both around 5.70, so he might just really be that bad.
The best part is that the Dodgers stack is slightly more affordable than usual thanks to a price drop on Will Smith, and you could save even more salary by swapping Mookie Betts for #9 hitter Miguel Rojas ($2,600) at shortstop. Rojas is nearly $2,000 cheaper, has been more productive this season, and would also save ownership, so I prefer that version of this stack over the traditional 1–5 hitters permutation.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,400) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Bailey Falter)
I always feel a bit guilty writing up players like Aaron Judge here, as you don’t really need me to tell you that the reigning back-to-back MVP is a good baseball player. With that said, it’s hard to imagine a better setup for Judge than he has tonight, as the Yankees face Royals lefty Bailey Falter ($5,500).
Falter has made just one start this season, but he’s finished each of the last two campaigns with an ERA in the mid-fours, a strikeout rate of 16.5% or lower, and a fly ball rate at least five percent above league average. Against a free-swinging home-run hitter, that’s a terrible outlook. Plus, check out Judge’s ridiculous numbers against lefties in PlateIQ:
Judge leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, and would be a top-five option at pitcher.
JP Crawford SS ($4,000) Seattle Mariners at Athletics (Luis Severino)
There’s a good chance that the Mariners go overlooked a bit tonight, but that would be a mistake. They’re in Sacramento, which means an upgrade from the worst hitting park in baseball to the best in the AL, with hitter salaries dragged down by their home stadium.
They’ve also got a solid matchup with Luis Severino ($7,000), who has a 3.38 ERA on the road but a 5.55 ERA at home this season. The other relevant split for Severino is his performance against lefties, who’ve hit .283 against him compared to just .216 for righties.
That makes Crawford (one of) the best options from the Mariners, but stacks of some kind are also strongly in play.
Carlos Cortes OF ($4,300) Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock)
There’s a similar case to be made for the A’s at home, as they take on a Seattle pitching staff suddenly in much worse circumstances than it’s accustomed to. Seattle starter Emerson Hancock ($8,500) has an ERA a full run higher on the road, and we could probably extrapolate that up even higher, since three of his four road starts were against below-average offenses, and all four were in average or below-average hitters’ parks.
Hancock doesn’t have especially notable lefty/righty splits, but the left-handed Cortes has strong numbers against righties and is the best value on the A’s. I’d like some exposure to their other top bats as well, but Cortes is my favorite when factoring in price and lineup spot.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
