The Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and the Spurs continues Tuesday with Game 5 in San Antonio. Currently, this series is tied 2-2. Below, I have featured some of my favorite targets for DraftKings’ Showdown slate for this Game 5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Victor Wembanyama ($19,500 CPT, $13,000 FLEX)
The Spurs evened this series up 2-2 with a blowout win in Game 4, and Wembanyama was the main reason why, posting 60 DraftKings points across 31 minutes. The superstar has now topped 60 DraftKings points in 3 of 4 games vs. the Thunder in this series, and in 7 of 12 games he hasn’t exited early this postseason. Wembanyama is scoring 1.8 DraftKings PPM with a 32% usage rate this season, and he should approach 40 minutes in tonight’s crucial Game 5. As expected, Wembanyama’s ceiling is the highest on the slate in our projections. The most optimal lineup design is to roster Wembanyama at captain and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in one of the FLEX spots.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($18,000 CPT, $12,000 FLEX)
Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 36.5 DraftKings points in Game 4, but he should bounce back on his home floor tonight. Before Game 4, Gilgeous-Alexander had scored at least 50 DraftKings points in each of the first three games of this series. The two-time MVP is scoring 50.8 DraftKings PPG at home this season, and Gilgeous-Alexander should log right around 40 minutes tonight with so much at stake. The Thunder are only favored by 5.5 points tonight, and when competing in a single-digit spread at home this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is amassing 55.8 DraftKings PPG (11 games), via the Trends Tool. While I prefer to roster Wembanyama at captain and Gilgeous-Alexander in a FLEX spot, if you need to save a little, doing the opposite and rostering Gilgeous-Alexander at captain is totally a viable move.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
De’Aaron Fox ($10,800 CPT, $7,200 FLEX)
After missing the first two games of this series with an ankle injury, Fox has been strong in the last two, scoring 33.2 and 38 DraftKings points while logging 31 minutes in each tilt. Fox has scored at least 33 DraftKings points in 4 of 7 matchups vs. the Thunder this season, and with the ankle injury behind him, he should find himself in the 35–40-minute range tonight. Fox is generating 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a 25% usage rate this season, and he is underpriced for a normal workload at these price tags. If you are looking to be contrarian at captain, Fox does make sense.
Devin Vassell ($10,500 CPT, $7,000 FLEX)
With an increased role this postseason, Vassell has been a steady contributor. After averaging 30.5 minutes per game in the regular season, the wing is logging 34.2 during these playoffs, and he has provided at least 26 DraftKings points in 11 of 15 games. Vassell is shooting 43% from the field and handling a 16.7% usage rate this postseason. The guard brings a safe floor of around 25 DraftKings points tonight.
Cason Wallace ($7,500 CPT, $5,000 FLEX)
Regardless of whether Jalen Williams (questionable, hamstring) suits up, Wallace should see 25–30 minutes with Ajay Mitchell (calf) sidelined. Due to the blowout, Wallace only scored 16 DraftKings points across 20 minutes in Game 4 with Mitchell inactive, but with the guard exiting early in Game 3, Wallace delivered 30.25 DraftKings points across 28 minutes, which was his second straight effort of over 30 DraftKings points. Wallace is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Mitchell off the floor this season. Wallace is an elite defender, and his skills on that end of the floor give him better upside than these salaries suggest.
Alex Caruso ($9,600 CPT, $6,400 FLEX)
This is a great time to buy low on Caruso. The veteran scored only 8.0 DraftKings points across 14 minutes in Game 4, but this was mostly a product of the Spurs running away with a 21-point win. Before this, Caruso was cooking, scoring 46.0, 31.75, and 27.25 DraftKings points in the first three games of this series while logging at least 24 minutes and hitting at least three three-pointers in each game. Caruso should get back to seeing 20–25 minutes tonight, and a bounce-back performance on his home floor is likely.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,900 CPT, $4,600 FLEX) – Despite the 21-point blowout win for the Spurs, Hartenstein still posted 24.75 DraftKings points in Game 4, which has been around his floor this postseason. The big man has finished with at least 24 DraftKings points in 9 of 12 games. With Chet Holmgren struggling, Hartenstein should continue to see over 20 minutes tonight, and he is one of the top values on the slate in our projections. This season, Hartenstein is producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
- Jared McCain ($6,300 CPT, $4,200 FLEX) – Like many of the Thunder players, McCain hit a wall in Game 4, scoring just 5.5 DraftKings points. However, he still logged 23 minutes with Mitchell out, which will be the case again tonight, and before this, McCain was on a roll, scoring 29.5 and 31 DraftKings points in his previous two. Role players always tend to perform better at home, and McCain should get back on track tonight with at least 20 DraftKings points, especially if Williams sits again.
- Lu Dort ($3,600 CPT, $2,400 FLEX) – Dort has reached double-digit DraftKings points in every game of this series and in 9 of 12 games this postseason. The veteran lacks upside, but Dort should score double-figures, making him a viable punt.
- Luke Kornet ($2,400 CPT, $1,600 FLEX) – Kornet posted 18.75 DraftKings points across 13.2 minutes off the bench in Game 4, but his FLEX salary dropped from $2,400 to $1,600. This drop doesn’t make much sense, and Kornet is the top value in our projections that will help you get both Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander in your lineup. The big man has scored at least 7.0 DraftKings points in 3 of 4 games in this series, which would be a sufficient return at this $1,600 price tag.
Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Imagn
