The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position on today’s slate, although his fantasy results have left something to be desired recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 72 percent on FanDuel over the past month and has averaged a Plus/Minus of only +0.86 over his last 10 games. Tonight’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors is an interesting one for fantasy purposes. The Warriors are playing at the second fastest pace this season, but they also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. The Thunder are currently 10-point underdogs and Westbrook has had mixed results against the Warriors over the past two seasons. Ultimately, this matchup likely comes down to if the Thunder can keep this game competitive: He’s averaged 65.4 points in the three games he’s played at least 30 minutes and just 40.65 in the two that he hasn’t.
Value
Tyler Ulis is shaping up as a slam-dunk value play across the industry. The Suns will be without both Devin Booker and Isaiah Canaan for today’s contest. Ulis has seen the largest usage bump on the team with both players off the court this season:
He has an excellent matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.75 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
The Cavs have quite possibly the best matchup of the day against the Orlando Magic. It couldn’t come at a better time for them after their embarrassing loss to the Rockets on Saturday. They’ve struggled particularly with opposing PGs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.59 for Isaiah Thomas on today’s slate. The Cavs are also implied for 114.75 points, which represents an increase of more than five points when compared to their season average (109.2).
On the other side of the same matchup, Elfrid Payton has some definite appeal against an awful Cavs defense. He should see a lot of Thomas in particular, who graded out as the worst defender in the league last season per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Things don’t appear to have gotten much better for Thomas this season, with the Cavs currently allowing a ridiculous 116.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. The Magic are also going to be shorthanded with Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Jonathan Isaac, and Terrence Ross all out due to injury. No one on the team has seen a larger usage bump than Payton with all four players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.23 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel:
He has a ton of upside on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden was barely needed on Saturday against the Cavs, playing just 31 minutes in a game where the Rockets would score 120 points. Today’s game against the Nets could follow a similar script as the Rockets are currently implied for 113.75 points but are also 10.5-point favorites. If the game doesn’t blow out, he should have a solid chance to return value against the Nets’ subpar defense. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Bradley Beal had been outstanding since the injury to John Wall before putting up a clunker last night against the Pacers. He still put up 21 points on a strong 29.6-percent usage rate, but was plagued by a lack of peripheral stats and six turnovers. He’ll have a chance to redeem himself tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the fifth fastest pace this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.18 for Beal on FanDuel. The one real concern is that this game is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation that Beal has historically not handled well:
Value
Wayne Selden logged over 30 minutes for the fourth consecutive game on Sunday and should continue to play big minutes for the depleted Memphis Grizzlies. He’s averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 31 minutes in today’s contest. He remains dirt cheap on FanDuel at $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Of course, none of that matters unless Selden actually plays: He’s currently questionable with a knee injury.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier has one of the best matchups of the day regardless of position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.61 against the Cavaliers. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past month on DraftKings. His salary has also decreased by $200 over that time frame, and his current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Andrew Harrison has SG eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG eligibility across the industry and he’s been an awesome fantasy asset of late. He’s been the primary beneficiary of the Grizzlies’ decision to rest Tyreke Evans, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.57 over his last four games. He has an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position features three of the game’s biggest names at the top: LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant.
Let’s start with LeBron. He’s been a disaster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.40 on FanDuel. His per-minute production has dropped to 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and that number drops to just 1.06 fantasy points per minute when sharing the court with Thomas. That’s crazy low for a player of LeBron’s caliber. It feels like things can’t stay this bad for the duration of the season, but there have really been no signs of improvement up to this point. The one saving grace for him is his matchup with the Magic, who have been almost as bad as the Cavs defensively since the injury to Vucevic. They’ve allowed 114.7 points per 100 possessions with their starting center off the court this season.
Giannis is probably the safest option of the three on today’s slate. He’s been the best producer on a per-minute basis over the past month (1.42) and has exceeded value in five of his last seven games on FanDuel. He did leave his last game early with an ankle injury, but it’s not considered serious and he’s probable to play today against the Knicks. The Knicks have been one of Giannis’ favorite opponents over the last two seasons, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.16 and a Consistency Rating of 100 percent in four matchups:
Finally, Durant might be the most appealing option on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been an abomination defensively with Andre Roberson off the court this season. Of course, this is also a #RevengeGame for Durant, who has rocky relationship with the Thunder since leaving OKC last season.
Value
Mario Hezonja is a SF on FanDuel and a PG/SG on DraftKings, but he looks like an excellent value today against the Cavs wherever you play him. He has averaged over 32 minutes per game in with both Gordon and Isaac out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 30.14 FanDuel points per game:
He also has an elite matchup with the Cavs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.97 on FanDuel and +7.52 on DraftKings. He should deservedly be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
Fast Break
T.J. Warren has led the Suns in usage with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.95 fantasy points per minute:
His salary has also decreased by $700 on FanDuel over the past month, which only increases his appeal today against the Lakers.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is not very appealing at the top today, but one possible exception could be Draymond Green on DraftKings. His $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 against the Thunder. That said, he hasn’t even been worth his reduced salary recently, averaging just 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month and failing to exceed salary-based expectations in five of his last six games.
Value
Marquese Chriss is in an intriguing spot today against the Lakers. He played just 14 minutes in a blowout against the Jazz in his last contest, but prior to that he played 28 minutes against the Mavericks. He crushed in that contest, scoring 34.4 FanDuel points. His salary has decreased by $500 since that game. If he sees that much playing time today against the Lakers, he could do a lot of damage. He’s averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.33.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris has been a much more consistent part of the Wizards rotation since the injury to Wall, playing at least 29 minutes in six straight games. He’s exceeded value in five of those games on FanDuel and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 for today’s contest against the 76ers.
The Lakers are reportedly looking to trade Julius Randle to try and open up cap space for the offseason and they appear to be doing everything possible to showcase him before the trade deadline. He’s played at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games, resulting in at least 35 DraftKings points in both. He’s averaged a stout 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he can be a factor when given a chance to play big minutes.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is the highest priced center on both sites. Like most centers, he’s a stronger value on DraftKings. He owns a Bargain Rating of 90 percent and leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends. He has a solid matchup with the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 110.25 is tied for the fifth highest mark on the slate.
Value
Marreese Speights has seen a few extra minutes recently given Orlando’s injuries at PF, which is always appealing for DFS purposes. Speights is a high usage player when he’s on the court – he’s posted a usage rate of at least 27.3 percent in each of his last four games – resulting in an average of 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at just $3,800 on FanDuel, especially in a plus matchup against the Cavs.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.15 against the Atlanta Hawks. He’s led the Grizzlies in usage in games without Conley, Evans, and Parsons this season, resulting in an average of over 40 FanDuel points per game:
Finally, here’s what Jonas Valanciunas has done over his last 10 games:
He’s averaged 1.39 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is more than any other center on today’s slate. Despite his awesome production, his salary has decreased by $300 on DraftKings for today’s contest with the Celtics, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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