The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Dak Prescott ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
After a couple of back-to-back subpar performances, the Cowboys offense bounced back in a big way in Week 7. They racked up 38 points and 416 yards vs. the Eagles, with Prescott averaging a hyper-efficient 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt. He ultimately needed just 27 pass attempts to finish with 212 yards, three touchdowns, and 23.28 DraftKings points.
It’s the type of performance we’ve become accustomed to with Prescott in previous years. He’s one of the best pure passers in football, and he has two of the best receivers in the league at his disposal. In the right matchups, his ceiling is as high as almost anyone’s.
Prescott has another one of those matchups this week. He’s taking on the Cardinals, who rank 30th in the league in EPA per pass defensively. They’ve also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Prescott ranks third on the slate with a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus.
The Cowboys are listed as seven-point home favorites in this contest, and their 30.75 implied team total is the highest of the week. Prescott has also historically done some of his best work as a home favorite, averaging 24.11 DraftKings points and a +4.00 Plus/Minus for his career (per the Trends tool).
Prescott ultimately ranks first among quarterbacks in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s second in ceiling projection. That’s a nice combination for the QB with the sixth-highest price tag on DraftKings.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
On the other side of that contest, the Cardinals offense has plenty of upside as well. Even as seven-point underdogs, they have a healthy 23.75 implied team total. The Cowboys defense was able to shut down Tanner McKee last week, but that stands out as a clear exception: they’re still 31st in pass defense EPA for the year.
That makes Brissett a very intriguing value target. Brissett hasn’t been great this season, but he’s had to navigate a tough schedule. He’s had matchups against the Broncos, Rams, and Seahawks, all of whom rank in the top six in pass defense EPA. When he’s had more favorable matchups, he’s been able to take advantage. He racked up 26.28 DraftKings points vs. the Lions and 25.6 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers, so there’s no reason he can’t take advantage of this spot.
Even after limiting McKee to less than 13 fantasy points, the Cowboys have still allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers. He trails only Prescott in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 on DraftKings. He’s an appealing pivot if you can’t afford to get all the way up to Prescott.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Joe Burrow ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
It was a tail of two halves for Burrow and the Bengals last week. They couldn’t do anything in the first half vs. the Ravens, resulting in a 13-0 halftime deficit. However, they erupted in the second half. They racked up 35 unanswered points, with Burrow throwing for four scores. He ultimately finished with 28.88 DraftKings points, his fourth straight game with a positive Plus/Minus.
Burrow appears poised for another big showing in Week 8. He’s taking on the Titans, who have struggled to get stops all season. They rank 26th in pass defense EPA, and the Bengals’ 28.5 implied team total ranks third on the slate.
Burrow ultimately has the third-highest ceiling projection at quarterback in our NFL Models, and he has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. Burrow is expected to be popular – he’s currently projected for 10% ownership on DraftKings – but it’s hard to argue against his upside.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Colts are officially waiving the white flag for the season. They’ve already traded away Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and more guys could be out the door soon. Josh Downs has reportedly requested a trade, while multiple contenders have expressed interest in Jonathan Taylor. Even though the Colts don’t own their first-round pick, the team feels ready to tear things down and start over.
That’s great news for whoever gets to face them in fantasy, and Lawrence gets that honor this week. Lawrence emerged as a legit fantasy stud down the stretch last season, with no QB scoring more fantasy points from Week 9 on. He’s picked up basically where he left off, including at least 25.74 DraftKings points in back-to-back outings. He has a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games, and with the team coming off a bye week, there’s no reason he can’t do it again.
Lawrence is projected for a bit less ownership than Burrow, but he has a higher Sim Labs optimal lineup rate.
Baker Mayfield ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Mayfield made his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers last week, but he barely had to break a sweat vs. the Panthers. He threw just 11 total passes, and he finished with just 64 yards. The team relied on their defense and rushing attack to ultimately embarrass Carolina.
That’s not going to be the case every week. This week stands out as one where the passing attack could have to carry the load. The Falcons rank fourth in the league in EPA per rush defensively, but they dip to just 16th vs. the pass.
It makes Mayfield an interesting buy-low target at $5,600 on DraftKings. He actually has the second-highest optimal lineup rate on DraftKings (12.2%), despite a modest 7.8% projected ownership. It’s ultimately the largest discrepancy at the position.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Josh Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
Opting for Allen at QB is almost never a bad idea, especially when he’s projected for less than 5% ownership. That’s the case this week vs. the Ravens, despite the Bills having the second-highest implied team total on the slate.
Allen has been the best QB in fantasy for quite some time now, but he’s taken his game to another level recently. He’s averaged 27.4 fantasy points per game so far this season, which is the top mark at the position by more than five points. He’s doing more damage with his legs than ever, averaging a career-best 8.0 carries per game with eight scores through just six contests. That puts Allen on pace to eclipse his previous career-best of 15 touchdowns back in 2023-24.
The Ravens have historically done a good job against Allen, limiting him to a -3.41 Plus/Minus in six career matchups. However, this isn’t the same version of the Ravens, and Allen has seemingly elevated his play. This also stands out as an elite game environment for fantasy purposes, with a 54.5-point total at a 3.5-point spread.
Malik Willis ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Willis has turned in two straight strong fantasy performances. He finished with 21.88 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Bengals, and he followed that up with 26.02 DraftKings points last week vs. the Jets. The Dolphins even managed to win last week, and some didn’t think the Dolphins would win a game all season.
Willis’ fantasy value stems primarily from his legs. He has become one of the best rushing threats in football at the position. He’s averaged 6.4 carries and 37.2 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s already punched in three scores. His rushing numbers are also trending up, so he could improve on those marks moving forward.
Willis should have plenty of opportunities to drop back this week vs. the Patriots. The Dolphins are listed as seven-point home underdogs, but the Patriots aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. They’re merely 19th in EPA per pass attempt, so Willis could find some success. He stands out as undervalued in Sim Labs, with his optimal lineup rate exceeding his projected ownership.
Geno Smith ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Smith has had a bit of a career resurgence in his second stint with the Jets. He looked cooked last year with the Raiders, averaging just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt with nearly as many interceptions (17) as passing touchdowns (19). He’s up to 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt so far this season with 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Smith is coming off a strong performance last week vs. the Dolphins, racking up 24.48 DraftKings points on 287 yards and three touchdowns. He could put together a similar statline vs. his old team. The Raiders rank 27th in pass defense EPA this season, and they’ve allowed at least 27 points in five straight games. New York doesn’t have the same level of offensive firepower as some of Las Vegas’ recent opponents, but this game still has sneaky potential. The sharps have been all over the board in this contest, so both sides have some upside.
Pictured: Joe Burrow
Photo Credit: Imagn
