The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is extremely thin on today’s slate. Dennis Schroder leads all players at the position in ceiling projection, thanks in part to his sky-high usage rate of 30.0 percent this season. That said, he has a tough matchup against the Detroit Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.15, and he’s played an average of just 25.5 minutes over his last two games. It’s going to be very difficult to trust him today.
Lonzo Ball, meanwhile, has the top floor projection at the position and gets to take on a Cavs team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Lonzo has had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but he does have the ability to pile up the peripheral statistics.
Value
The Pistons PGs have the top matchup of the day at the position, with both Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.27 on DraftKings. Jackson is still the starting PG, but he’s played just 19 and 22.5 minutes over the past two games. Smith has seen more minutes in each of those contests, and we’ve seen head coach Stan Van Gundy flip flop between the two at the position before. It might make sense to have some exposure to both in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
No one at the position is projected to see more minutes than Jeff Teague, who has played at least 36 in three straight games for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Unfortunately, he has a tough matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who are playing at the third-slowest pace in the league. Teague’s resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.34 is one of the worst marks at the position, but he should still provide some safety on a day where there aren’t a lot of sure things.
The Mavericks are taking on the Golden State Warriors, which pits one of the slowest-paced teams in the league against the one of the fastest. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +8.0 for the Mavs players, who will still be without starting PG Dennis Smith Jr. for the rest of the week. JJ Barea hasn’t seen a huge bump in playing time with DSJ sidelined, but he remains the Mavs leader in usage and has averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler is coming off a monster game in his last outing and has crushed in his past 10 games on DraftKings overall:
DraftKings has responded by increasing his salary by $700 for today’s matchup with the Kings, but it still might be too low: He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. No one is playing more minutes than him right now – he leads the slate with a projection of 41 – and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 106.75 ranks fourth on today’s slate. He leads all players with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
No one on the Mavericks has seen a larger increase in usage than Wesley Matthews in the five games without Smith Jr. this season:
He’s played 35 minutes or more in each of the past three games, scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in all of them. He should enjoy the pace-up environment against the Warriors, with Matthews averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.54 on DraftKings in games with a comparable paceD and salary.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has one of the top matchups of the day against the Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.1 on FanDuel. He’s been extremely reliable over the past month (91 percent Consistency Rating), and his $5,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Klay Thompson has yet to really breakout with Steph Curry out of the lineup, but he has the potential to do so at any time. Thompson has benefited from a pretty sizable usage increase with Curry off the court this season:
He’s a much stronger asset today on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s most intriguing position battle comes down to perhaps the two best players in the game, LeBron James and Kevin Durant. These guys feature the highest projections across the board on today’s slate, while their team’s implied team totals rank first and second. Additionally, both of these superstars could benefit from some injury value, with Curry already out for the Warriors and Dwyane Wade potentially out for the Cavaliers.
Let’s start with LeBron. He’s the more expensive option on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and his Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past year makes him one of the most reliable assets in daily fantasy basketball. He’s been particularly good recently, scoring at least 58 fantasy points in five of his past seven games, and he has a wonderful matchup today against the defensively-challenged Lakers. If Wade were to sit, LeBron would likely see a boost to his already sky-high fantasy stock: He’s increased his assist percentage by 17.1 percent in games without Wade this season and is coming off 17 assists in his last outing.
As good as LeBron has been, getting Durant at a slightly cheaper salary could be the more appealing option. He’s been absolutely unstoppable in four games without Curry this season:
While LeBron clearly has the edge in matchup, Durant’s slow-paced matchup with the Mavericks could help him in the rebound department: Dallas has the third-worst rebounding rate in the league this season.
Regardless of who you choose, both of these players are better values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
Value
Andre Iguodala has been absorbing a few extra minutes from the injured Curry, playing at least 29 in each of his past three games. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past month on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent tonight.
Fast Break
No one across the DFS industry gets less respect than Harrison Barnes. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent on FanDuel over his past 13 games, yet his salary has decreased by $600 over that time frame. He has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on FanDuel, where his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. This is also a #RevengeGame for Barnes for those who choose to reside on narrative street.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis made history in his last outing, becoming the first player in NBA history to score 35 points with 10 rebounds, five blocked shots, and five 3-pointers. That matchup came against the defensively challenged Lakers, and he gets arguably an even better matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets. So far this season, only the Cleveland Cavaliers have allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to opposing PFs:
Despite seeing a salary increase of over $1,000 on DraftKings after his last start, he still might be slightly underpriced, given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Despite rarely seeing more than 25 minutes, Jeff Green has been surprisingly consistent recently:
Green would stand to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Wade were to miss today’s contest, averaging 28.4 FanDuel points and a Plus/Minus of +12.1 in two games without him this season. He also has an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers (+5.46 Opponent Plus/Minus).
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has seen a solid boost in production since the Trevor Booker trade, scoring at least 30.5 DraftKings points in four straight games. He features one of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day, with his $6,100 salary on DraftKings resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Taj Gibson is coming off another game playing big minutes and racking up good production for the Timberwolves. He has been extremely solid over his past 10 games:
His price has come up a bit on FanDuel, but at $5,800, he still comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been a bit of a disappointment recently, but that could all change today against the Atlanta Hawks. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.47 on FanDuel and crushed them for 50.5 fantasy points in their first meeting this season. The Hawks are still without Dewayne Dedmon, which leaves virtually no one on their roster with the size capable of handling Drummond. He leads all centers in median, ceiling, and floor projection on today’s slate.
Value
Brook Lopez has taken on a much smaller role for the Lakers as the season has progressed, but he’s actually been pretty productive in that role recently. He’s an appealing punt play on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Kevin Love has been one of the most reliable centers over the past month, owning a Consistency Rating of 92 percent on DraftKings. He has an extremely enticing matchup against the Lakers, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.42, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 114.5 points ranks first on today’s slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns has smashed in three straight games, albeit with one of them requiring overtime. Still, this is one of the most talented offensive players in the league and it’s nice to see him put it on display recently. He has another strong matchup today against the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.01. His Bargain Rating on DraftKings is a cool 98 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
