The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Sunday’s Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-2.5) | O/U: 198.5
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
It all comes down to this. The Cavaliers won Game 6 at home to force a Game 7 in Boston, where the Celtics have been a perfect 10-0 during the postseason. Sports books responded by making them slight favorites, but as of this writing, a whopping 82% of the money has come in on the Cavs to advance to their fourth straight NBA Finals.
Celtics (100.5 implied points)
The Celtics have been a tough team to peg during this series. They’ve had three players lead their team in fantasy scoring over the six games — Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Terry Rozier — so there’s no obvious top target on the team.
The one player who seems somewhat safe to cross off is Al Horford. He averaged 41.25 DraftKings points over the first two games of the series, but that number has dropped to just 27.56 over the past four. He’s really struggled offensively against Tristan Thompson, who has been his primary defender since entering the starting lineup in Game 2. Horford feasted when matched up with Kevin Love and could be in for an even tougher night with Love (concussion) out of the lineup.
Terry Rozier has been the best option on the team from a per-minute standpoint over the past month, averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and our NBA Models project him for 39.1 minutes Sunday, the second-highest mark on the team. Scary Terry has also been significantly better at home this season, averaging an additional 4.5 DraftKings points per game and an average Plus/Minus of +4.56 (per our NBA Trends tool).
Jaylen Brown is coming off a big performance in Game 6, scoring 27 points and posting a usage rate of 30.4%. That said, there’s reason to believe he’s due for some regression Sunday. He shot 11-of-18 (61.1%) from the field, which is obviously unsustainable moving forward. He also saw LeBron on just 10 possessions during that game after seeing him for an average of 24 possessions over the previous three. Brown struggled in the matchup against LeBron, averaging 4.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than his average, and Brown figures to see more of LeBron in Game 7.
Jayson Tatum took a backseat to Brown in Game 6 but displayed his immense potential in the game prior by scoring 51.25 DraftKings points. Tatum makes sense as a target if you’re expecting Brown to take a step back Sunday.
Marcus Smart doesn’t see as many minutes as the starters since he comes off the bench, but he’s averaged a strong 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Smart’s only the fifth-most expensive member of the Celtics on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which could make him a solid value.
Marcus Morris is a boom-or-bust option. His average playing time has decreased since the start of the series, but he still posts a high enough usage rate to return value if his shot is failing. He’s made just 35.8% of his shots over the past five games and could be due for positive regression.
Aron Baynes rounds out the Celtics rotation but could see less run Sunday since the Cavs are without Love, whose minutes will likely be split among Jeff Green and Larry Nance Jr.; the Celtics wont need to stay as quite as big with Green at power forward instead of a traditional big man.
Cavaliers (98.0 implied points)
LeBron James did not disappoint in Game 6, tallying 46 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists. His history in elimination games is absolutely elite:
LeBron in elimination games since 2011:
45-15-5
31-12-2
32-8-4
32-10-11
37-12-4
31-10-5
32-18-9
41-16-7
41-8-11
27-11-11
31-10-11
41-13-8
45-8-746-11-9 tonight.
— Justin Phan (@jphanned) May 26, 2018
LeBron is the most expensive player on both sites by a considerable margin, but he still seems almost impossible to fade on Sunday’s slate. His stock only figures to increase with Love’s concussion keeping him out.
Jeff Green will enter the starting lineup in place of Love, and both he and Larry Nance Jr. look like solid values at their current salaries. Nance has been the better player, averaging a stout 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, but Green projects to play more minutes.
Tristian Thompson emerged as a solid option for the Cavs during the early part of this series, but his playing time and production has regressed over the past two games. Thompson has averaged just 24.5 minutes per game and a usage rate of just 6.7%, but he could be worthy of some buy low consideration since he’s been the Cavs’ best option against Horford.
George Hill has been a drastically better option at home this series, but he has an interesting theory as to why he’s been better in Cleveland:
The secret to George Hill's success of late: Chipotle pic.twitter.com/5ZCrHEFlco
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) May 26, 2018
Luckily, there are a few Chipotles in Boston, so Hill will get to put that theory to the test Sunday. In all seriousness, Hill should be a safe bet for around 34 minutes on Sunday and has one of the best individual matchups on the team on paper, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30. Hill makes sense at his current salary.
The rest of the Cavs rotation consists of J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, and Jordan Clarkson. Smith is the best bet for minutes in Game 7 but has offered virtually nothing from a fantasy perspective during this series. His average of 0.50 DraftKings points per minute is the worst mark on the team. Korver saw 26 minutes in Game 6, and his outside shooting could be key on Sunday with Love out of the lineup. Clarkson saw approximately 15 minutes of playing time over the past two games and posted an average usage rate of over 30%, but he shot just 6-of-19 from the field over that time frame and could potentially put together a big game if his shot starts falling.
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Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: David Richard – USA TODAY Sports
