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Week 4 NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Josh Allen is the King of Consistency

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In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models

On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.

  • Josh Allen
  • Jalen Hurts

We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.

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Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Josh Allen ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens (51.5 total)

After monster performances in each of Buffalo’s first two games, Josh Allen put up the quietest 30+ DraftKings points performances we’ve seen. Despite Buffalo only putting up 19 points, Allen eclipsed the 30-point marker on DraftKings, making it three weeks in a row for him to open the season.

Allen matches up with Baltimore this weekend, who have proven to be beatable this year. They did intercept Mac Jones three times this past Sunday, but Jones was still able to throw for 321 yards through the air. In Week 2, Tua Tagovailoa torched this Baltimore defense, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. A lot of this work came after the catch, but regardless, yards are yards.

Baltimore is allowing 7.8 yards per attempt on the year, which is 28th in the league. Just last week, Baltimore allowed 10.0 yards per attempt and eight completions of 20 or more yards. If New England’s weapons can break off 20+ yard receptions, then just imagine what Buffalo’s can do.

Allen has also continued to use his legs as a weapon, running for 47+ yards in eight of his last ten games dating back to last season. The two other games were 17-point and 34-point victories. The Bills currently sit as three-point favorites, so we should expect a close contest in Baltimore. With the Bills coming off a loss and going on the road to face a good Baltimore team, they’ll pull out their best stuff to avoid dropping to 2-2 on the year.

Allen was the top quarterback in both of our Pro Models, as well as our Cash Game and Tournament Models. He is also the runaway leader in Projected Plus/Minus on the week as well.


Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47 total)

Jalen Hurts is the No. 3 overall fantasy quarterback so far, nipping at the heels of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Hurts posted 30.6 DraftKings points against Washington last week but did it in an unusual fashion. Hurts usually relies on his legs for a good chunk of his fantasy production, racking up 32.7 DraftKings points on the ground in Weeks 1 and 2.

Hurts showed that he can produce with just his arm, as he ran for merely 20 yards last week and didn’t find the end zone on the ground. Hurts threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns en route to his 30+ point performance. Hurts has been such an amazing play because of his high floor and high ceiling due to his rushing production. We now know how secure his floor is and how high his ceiling can be, as he can reach 30-point performances without his legs.

Hurts has started to attack downfield more, throwing for 10.7 and 9.7 yards per attempt against Minnesota and Washington respectively. Jacksonville will be his toughest test yet, as they stymied Matt Ryan and an injured Justin Herbert the past two weeks. However, it was only three weeks ago when the Jaguars let Carson Wentz carve them up en route to the QB3 score in Week 1.

He doesn’t lead any of our models this week, as those honors all belong to Mr. Allen (see above). However, Hurts is second in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model, our Cash Game Model, and our Tournament Model. He isn’t far behind in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model as well, where he ranks fourth.

Allen ran away in Projected Plus/Minus this week, but Hurts sits comfortably in second.

Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Lamar Jackson ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills (51.5 total)

Apparently back-to-back 43+ point DraftKings performances aren’t enough for the people, as Lamar Jackson currently ranks outside the top five in projected ownership at the quarterback position this weekend.

Buffalo is currently dealing with a slew of injuries on defense, as defensive linemen, Jordan Phillips and Ed Oliver both missed last week’s matchup with Miami. In the secondary, Dane Jackson, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer all missed as well.

White is still on the PUP list, Hyde was placed on injured reserve, and backup cornerback Christian Benford is now out for a while due to a hand injury.

For the rest of the crew, it’s still up in the air. Most of them are currently questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Ravens. Jackson has the talent to pick apart healthy defenses, let alone those ravaged by injuries. Buffalo has done well getting after the quarterback, but at this point, it doesn’t really matter. Jackson has one of, if not the highest ceiling at the quarterback position.

He’s going to be fairly low-owned. Act accordingly.


Kyler Murray ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+2) at Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)

I wish our “bet on talent” mantra that we’ve been chanting for Jackson would also work for Kyler Murray but to no avail. Murray has actually strung together some solid performances, averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per game through the first three contests. However, we’re not searching for a solid median performance, we want a ceiling outcome. We haven’t gotten it from Murray yet, and this week’s matchup isn’t necessarily easy.

The Panthers rank top 10 in passing fantasy points allowed per attempt, completion rate allowed, and yards per pass attempt. On the bright side, their competition has been lackluster, as they’ve played Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Jameis Winston.

This game has a low total, implying that its odds of being a shootout aren’t very high. However, as usual, I’m one to bet on talent. Murray is barely going to be owned, and that’s enticing enough with his upside and rushing ability.


Marcus Mariota ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (49 total)

Marcus Mariota only attempted 20 passes last week, but he was efficient on his throws. He threw for 11.4 yards per attempt and also added a score on the ground. Mariota hasn’t used his legs much the past few weeks after leaning on them in Week 1. He scampered for 72 yards on the ground in Week 1 but has only ran for 20 total yards since then.

Mariota may get a break this week when it comes to the matchup, as Cleveland may be without Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Garrett was in a car crash earlier this week, and Clowney is still nursing an ankle injury that caused him to miss Week 3. Cleveland’s pressure rate with both of them off the field is a porous 23.6%, which is 31st in the league.

Mariota looks like a solid play this weekend, and his matchup could be very beatable if Garrett and Clowney were to miss.

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In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models

On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.

  • Josh Allen
  • Jalen Hurts

We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Josh Allen ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens (51.5 total)

After monster performances in each of Buffalo’s first two games, Josh Allen put up the quietest 30+ DraftKings points performances we’ve seen. Despite Buffalo only putting up 19 points, Allen eclipsed the 30-point marker on DraftKings, making it three weeks in a row for him to open the season.

Allen matches up with Baltimore this weekend, who have proven to be beatable this year. They did intercept Mac Jones three times this past Sunday, but Jones was still able to throw for 321 yards through the air. In Week 2, Tua Tagovailoa torched this Baltimore defense, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. A lot of this work came after the catch, but regardless, yards are yards.

Baltimore is allowing 7.8 yards per attempt on the year, which is 28th in the league. Just last week, Baltimore allowed 10.0 yards per attempt and eight completions of 20 or more yards. If New England’s weapons can break off 20+ yard receptions, then just imagine what Buffalo’s can do.

Allen has also continued to use his legs as a weapon, running for 47+ yards in eight of his last ten games dating back to last season. The two other games were 17-point and 34-point victories. The Bills currently sit as three-point favorites, so we should expect a close contest in Baltimore. With the Bills coming off a loss and going on the road to face a good Baltimore team, they’ll pull out their best stuff to avoid dropping to 2-2 on the year.

Allen was the top quarterback in both of our Pro Models, as well as our Cash Game and Tournament Models. He is also the runaway leader in Projected Plus/Minus on the week as well.


Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47 total)

Jalen Hurts is the No. 3 overall fantasy quarterback so far, nipping at the heels of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Hurts posted 30.6 DraftKings points against Washington last week but did it in an unusual fashion. Hurts usually relies on his legs for a good chunk of his fantasy production, racking up 32.7 DraftKings points on the ground in Weeks 1 and 2.

Hurts showed that he can produce with just his arm, as he ran for merely 20 yards last week and didn’t find the end zone on the ground. Hurts threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns en route to his 30+ point performance. Hurts has been such an amazing play because of his high floor and high ceiling due to his rushing production. We now know how secure his floor is and how high his ceiling can be, as he can reach 30-point performances without his legs.

Hurts has started to attack downfield more, throwing for 10.7 and 9.7 yards per attempt against Minnesota and Washington respectively. Jacksonville will be his toughest test yet, as they stymied Matt Ryan and an injured Justin Herbert the past two weeks. However, it was only three weeks ago when the Jaguars let Carson Wentz carve them up en route to the QB3 score in Week 1.

He doesn’t lead any of our models this week, as those honors all belong to Mr. Allen (see above). However, Hurts is second in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model, our Cash Game Model, and our Tournament Model. He isn’t far behind in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model as well, where he ranks fourth.

Allen ran away in Projected Plus/Minus this week, but Hurts sits comfortably in second.

Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Lamar Jackson ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills (51.5 total)

Apparently back-to-back 43+ point DraftKings performances aren’t enough for the people, as Lamar Jackson currently ranks outside the top five in projected ownership at the quarterback position this weekend.

Buffalo is currently dealing with a slew of injuries on defense, as defensive linemen, Jordan Phillips and Ed Oliver both missed last week’s matchup with Miami. In the secondary, Dane Jackson, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer all missed as well.

White is still on the PUP list, Hyde was placed on injured reserve, and backup cornerback Christian Benford is now out for a while due to a hand injury.

For the rest of the crew, it’s still up in the air. Most of them are currently questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Ravens. Jackson has the talent to pick apart healthy defenses, let alone those ravaged by injuries. Buffalo has done well getting after the quarterback, but at this point, it doesn’t really matter. Jackson has one of, if not the highest ceiling at the quarterback position.

He’s going to be fairly low-owned. Act accordingly.


Kyler Murray ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+2) at Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)

I wish our “bet on talent” mantra that we’ve been chanting for Jackson would also work for Kyler Murray but to no avail. Murray has actually strung together some solid performances, averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per game through the first three contests. However, we’re not searching for a solid median performance, we want a ceiling outcome. We haven’t gotten it from Murray yet, and this week’s matchup isn’t necessarily easy.

The Panthers rank top 10 in passing fantasy points allowed per attempt, completion rate allowed, and yards per pass attempt. On the bright side, their competition has been lackluster, as they’ve played Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Jameis Winston.

This game has a low total, implying that its odds of being a shootout aren’t very high. However, as usual, I’m one to bet on talent. Murray is barely going to be owned, and that’s enticing enough with his upside and rushing ability.


Marcus Mariota ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (49 total)

Marcus Mariota only attempted 20 passes last week, but he was efficient on his throws. He threw for 11.4 yards per attempt and also added a score on the ground. Mariota hasn’t used his legs much the past few weeks after leaning on them in Week 1. He scampered for 72 yards on the ground in Week 1 but has only ran for 20 total yards since then.

Mariota may get a break this week when it comes to the matchup, as Cleveland may be without Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Garrett was in a car crash earlier this week, and Clowney is still nursing an ankle injury that caused him to miss Week 3. Cleveland’s pressure rate with both of them off the field is a porous 23.6%, which is 31st in the league.

Mariota looks like a solid play this weekend, and his matchup could be very beatable if Garrett and Clowney were to miss.

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