The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the 10-game Week 15 slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes at Houston Texans – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be an ideal matchup against the Houston Texans, who rank 20th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Chiefs are a massive 14-point favorite in a matchup with a 49.5-point total, the highest on the slate. Leading a dangerous and hyper-effective offense, Mahomes handles under-center duties for one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), tied for the third-highest passing frequency.
The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 320 passing yards per game and a 65.8% completion rate. In a 34-28 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 14, Mahomes passed for 352 yards and three touchdowns and should make for a prime candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, despite the high price tag, facing one of the weaker offenses in the league.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 48-point total, he averages 26.93 actual DraftKings points, with a +3.74 Plus/Minus and a 59.5% consistency rating.
A more expensive stack, Mahomes should likely be paired with Travis Kelce and Houston Texans skill players in Chris Moore as a bring-back.
THE BLITZ, Jalen Hurts again projects for the highest ceiling in a road matchup with the Chicago Bears. On paper, the Bears look to be an ideal matchup for the Eagles quarterback, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign. The Bears rank last in DVOA and should not prevent Hurts from reaching an 85th-percentile outcome. Like Mahomes, look for Hurts to be an elite option in the Eagles’ offense, averaging 242 passing yards per game and 4.94 yards per carry.
A nine-point favorite on the road, look for the Eagles to keep the foot on the gas, averaging 26.1 seconds per snap. Further, Hurts looks to be a spend-up to Mahomes, currently coming in as more popular on DraftKings. In a 48-22 rout of the New York Giants, Hurts passed for 217 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing for 77 yards and one touchdown.
Should the video-game-like numbers continue, Hurts warrants a second look as a cornerstone in rosters, even as the most expensive quarterback on the slate.
Top Value: Mac Jones vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Mac Jones projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Patriots offense in a road matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who are one of the weaker defenses in the league, ranking 31st in DVOA.
In 10 games this season, Jones is averaging 219.8 passing yards per game and a 68.2% completion rate and has thrown for more than 200 yards in six games. In a 27-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14, a similar matchup to the Raiders this week, Jones threw for 235 yards.
According to PFF, the Raiders rank 19th in overall defense. Jones is a solid option that should unlock higher-priced skill position players, given his discounted salary on DraftKings, especially one member of the Raiders receiving corps in wide receiver Davante Adams, who is priced at a sky-high $9,000 on DraftKings and should easily be considered as a bring-back option in Patriots stacks, despite a lower total, currently at 43-points.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry at Los Angeles Chargers – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
Derrick Henry again projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Chargers defense that has had issues defending the run, ranking 25th in rushing DVOA.
Henry remains a key playmaker for the Titans offense, averaging 21.2 carries per game and 4.36 yards per carry, also seeing 2.6 targets per game and 12.3 yards per reception. Tennessee is a three-point road underdog and should depend on the elite running back to seal the game should the Titans be ahead in the fourth quarter, especially seeing a 74% market share of carries.
In a Week 14 22-36 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Henry rushed for 121 yards on 17 attempts, finding the end zone once, and was targeted five times, catching three passes for 34 yards. In an ideal matchup, Henry can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome and should be popular this week for rosters.
Top Value: Latavius Murray vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Latavius Murray projects as a top value in a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 23rd in rushing DVOA.
The veteran Murray has taken over lead back duties in the Broncos offense, responsible for 30% of the rushing share, averaging 12.6 rushing attempts per game and 3.76 yards per carry. In a 34-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14, Murray rushed for 32 yards on eight attempts, facing a similar opponent on paper to the Cardinals’ rush defense.
However, with guaranteed volume in what looks to be a close game, as the Broncos are favored by three points, Murray becomes a fantasy-viable option. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Look for Murray to serve as salary relief, which should unlock access to higher-priced skill-position players.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. New England Patriots – $9,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Davante Adams projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 15 against the New England Patriots, who rank fourth in pass DVOA, in what looks to be a difficult matchup with a low total.
However, Adams is a hyper-elite wideout, responsible for a 32% target share, and is the preferred option for quarterback Derek Carr, averaging 10.9 targets per game and 15.2 yards per reception. Further, look for Adams to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in seven of the Raiders’ 13 games this season, as recording a touchdown in eight games. In the 17-16 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, Adams was targeted seven times, catching three passes for 71 yards.
Aside from the volume, Adams is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 18 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds. Despite a tough matchup, Adams’ volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Garrett Wilson vs. Detroit Lions – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Garrett Wilson again projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver after a decent performance against a stout Buffalo Bills defense in Week 14
Wilson is the leader in market share in the Jets’ receiving corps, responsible for a 22% target share, and the rookie wideout looks to be a preferred option for quarterback Mike White.
To add, if the passing volume should continue for Wilson, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him a fantasy-viable option, complete with touchdown upside, especially facing a weak Detroit Lions defense, who rank 21st in pass DVOA.
The Jets should lean heavily on Wilson, especially in a matchup where the Jets are favored by 1.5 points.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Houston Texans – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
If Patrick Mahomes reaches a ceiling outcome, expect tight end Travis Kelce to have a significant role and should also reach a similar outcome. Kelce continues to be one of the more matchup-proof skill players in the league, projecting for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Texans defense ranked 17th in pass DVOA.
Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for Mahomes, who is responsible for a team-leading 24% target share. Kelce is averaging 12.8 yards per reception and 9.3 targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings. He is in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in six of the Chiefs’ first 13 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in seven games.
The Cheifs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look, coming at projected lower ownership for the position.
Top Value: Evan Engram vs. Dallas Cowboys – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Evan Engram projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Engram has a modest 17% target share, which is third in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, averaging 5.7 targets per game. In a 36-22 win over the Tennessee Titans, Engram was targeted a season-high 15 times, catching 11 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns. With the consistent volume and touchdown upside, Engram becomes a salary relief option in a matchup with a 48-point total, despite facing the number one pass DVOA defense in the league–the Dallas Cowboys.
Be sure to pair Engram with Cowboys skill position players, especially CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard or Ezekiel Elliott, especially in a game with shootout potential.
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