The PGA TOUR has back-to-back national opens the next two weeks, with the RBC Canadian Open this week, setting up the U.S. Open as the third major of the season next week. The RBC Canadian Open rotated venues for many years, but it has settled at the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course for last year’s debut, this year’s tournament, and next year’s event as well.
The course is specifically designed for hosting this event and is a scorable par-70 layout with the two par 5s at No. 1 and No. 18. The wind is expected to be stronger this week, which should make the course play more difficult with more hazards in play. For more info on the field, the format, and the challenge at TPC Toronto’s North Course, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for tournament success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.
Since these are tournament picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for tournament play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Collin Morikawa $9,900
Collin Morikawa has the highest SimLeverage in the field this week, meaning he is in the optimal lineup in more of our thousands of sims than any other option on the board. He only has the fourth-highest ownership projections, though, so he’s a good source of positive SimLeverage from just behind the three big names at the top of the field, who each come with salaries over $10,000. Sam Burns ($10,100) is an especially strong option, as you can check out in Alex Hunter’s cash game picks for this week.
Morikawa saves a little salary and has a lower ownership projection, which should help him be a solid source of leverage. His short-term form has been a little shaky, which may be why the public is fading him a bit, but his ability to dial in and contend in any tournament he plays is indesputable.
He won the Signature Event at Pebble Beach earlier this season for his seventh PGA TOUR career victory. He followed that up with top-10 finishes at two more Signature Events at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, before having to withdraw with a back injury from THE PLAYERS Championship.
Despite the injury, he posted top-10 finishes at the Masters and RBC Heritage before struggling a bit at the Cadillac Championship and PGA Championship, although he did make the cut at Aronimink.
Over the last six months, Morikawa leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and is second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained.
While he didn’t play this course in its debut last year, he has enough long-term form and potential upside to be an elite tournament option from the top tier. He should have good memories of the event since he made his debut as a professional at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open, where he tied for 14th (on a different course).
In many ways, Morikawa is testing his injury before the U.S. Open, so there’s definitely risk in building your lineup around him this week. However, he has enough potential to contend to be a good pivot option since so much of the public is fading him this week.
Wyndham Clark $9,700
The models are extremely high on Wyndham Clark this week, and he has the highest SimLeverage in the field. He has the third-highest Perfect% as well, behind only Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300).
Clark’s ownership projection is still low as of Wednesday, but he’s getting lots of hype now as a result, so keep an eye on it to be sure it doesn’t spike. If he does remain so overlooked, though, he’ll be a great pay-up pivot play to pair with Morikawa or to use separately as an anchor to build around.
Last year, Clark played this event, making the cut and finishing T59 on the North Course at TPC Toronto. He comes back to this year’s event on an impressive hot streak that has caused him to climb back into standing as one of the top fantasy plays this week.
Clark won THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch three weeks ago, took a week off and then posted an impressive third-place finish at the Memorial last week. At THE CJ CUP, it was his putter that did most of the heavy lifting, but last week he gained over 2.6 strokes per round on approach to lead the field in that category. He surged with a 68-67 on the weekend and finished just one stroke out of the playoff.
He has five top-25 finishes in his last six events, with the only exception being a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Over the last 30 days, he has led the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Putting, which gives him all the tools to be right in contention again this week.
Throughout his career, Clark has shown that he can be volatile from week to week, which makes him an option that is risky for cash builds. However, for tournament lineups, Clark is a great option due to his upside and lower ownership projections this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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