Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
Gibbs is expected to be the heavy chalk at running back this week. His projected ownership is roughly 35% on DraftKings, and it’s closer to 40% on FanDuel. No other RB is projected for more than 18-20% at the moment, so Gibbs stands in a tier of his own.
It’s pretty easy to see what fantasy players are enamored with. Gibbs was a phenomenal fantasy RB last season, finishing fourth in 0.5-PPR scoring, and he could be even better in 2026-27. Gibbs had just a 67% snap share and 57% carry share, with David Montgomery siphoning off a significant amount of volume. Montgomery is now gone, and the newly acquired Isiah Pacheco doesn’t figure to see nearly as much work as his predecessor did. Pacheco will also start the season on the IR, so Gibbs has the backfield essentially to himself for at least the first four weeks.
Gibbs’ matchup this week is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the Saints were pretty good against the run last season. They were third in EPA per rush defensively. However, they were in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, and the Lions are listed as seven-point home favorites.
Being a big favorite tends to bode well for RBs for fantasy purposes, and Gibbs is no exception. In 19 games as a favorite of at least a touchdown, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.90 (per the Trends tool).
Add it all up, and he’s the clear top RB on the slate. He ranks first in both median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
MarShawn Lloyd ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
We’re going to need to find some value on this slate, and Lloyd looks like one of the most obvious sources. He’s expected to take over as the Packers’ top running back after Josh Jacobs landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.
This is a huge opportunity for the 2024 third-round pick. He’s been hampered by injuries throughout his first two seasons, which has limited him to just six carries and one game played.
How much of Jacobs’ workload Lloyd will absorb remains to be seen. The Packers did acquire Kaleb Johnson in a trade with the Steelers near the end of the preseason, and he could eventually take over if Lloyd struggles. That said, he could take some time to get up to speed.
Ultimately, Lloyd stands out as the safest salary-saver at running back. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he’s priced close to the minimum at $4,900. He ranks third on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.
Omarion Hampton ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
From a matchup standpoint, no one stands out more than Hampton in Week 1. The Chargers will be at home against the Cardinals, and they’re listed as sizable 9.5-point favorites. Add in a 47.5-point total, and the Chargers have the top implied team total on the slate.
The Chargers’ offense also has the potential to be significantly improved this year. They brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, and he was able to work magic with Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. The Dolphins ranked first in yards per game and second in points back in 2023-24, and his work with the team’s rushing attack was particularly impressive. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for nearly 2,200 scrimmage yards and 32 touchdowns, so there is plenty of upside with the Chargers’ backfield.
Hampton will have to share the rock with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell, but he should be the team’s clear top option. They selected him in the first round in 2025, and he was impressive when available as a rookie. He had a snap share above 60% in just five games, and he finished as a top-12 fantasy RB in three of them.
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Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Pairing Gibbs and Robinson together is a possibility this week, but it seems more likely that most lineups will choose between the two. That could result in Robinson being a bit overlooked. He has a tougher matchup vs. the Steelers, while the Falcons’ offense isn’t nearly as impressive as the Lions’ on paper.
Still, Robinson was able to overcome a poor offense last season to amazing effects. He scored more fantasy points than Gibbs, thanks primarily to his work as a pass-catcher. Only Christian McCaffrey had a greater target share at the position.
Tagovailoa will be at QB for the Falcons in Week 1, and while he’s been a disaster over the past two seasons, he does like to throw the ball to his running back. He leaned on Achane quite a bit as a pass-catcher last season, and he should do the same with Robinson vs. the Steelers.
Finally, Robinson benefits from the same reduction in competition for touches as Gibbs. Tyler Allgeier is now gone, and he has been a thorn in Robinson’s side around the goal line. Robinson had just 48% of the Falcons’ carries from inside the five-yard line last year, and if he can add more of those to his repertoire, he could put together the best fantasy season of his career.
De’Von Achane ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Speaking of Achane, he’s basically the last man standing for the Dolphins. They have completely gutted their roster heading into this season. No team in NFL history has amassed a larger dead cap hit, with seven of the team’s eight highest-paid players not suiting up for them.
Things are particularly grim for the Dolphins at the skill positions. They have possibly the worst group of pass-catchers in the league, so Achane should once again be asked to carry a big load as a pass-catcher. He’s had at least 85 targets in back-to-back seasons, and even with McDaniel gone, he should continue to be a factor in that department.
This is also one of the few games this year where the Dolphins might be competitive. They’re “just” 3.5-point underdogs vs. the Raiders, which counts as a positive game script as far as Miami is concerned. Achane has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings, and he’s projected for less ownership at a cheaper price tag than the top three.
Chase Brown ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
If fantasy football leagues started in Week 9, Brown would be one of the best players in fantasy. For two straight years, he has dominated down the stretch. He was RB5 from Week 10 on last season, and he was sixth in points per game over that span two years ago. That’s not just a Brown thing, either. The Bengals have been notorious slow starters, which is part of the reason they’ve missed the playoffs in back-to-back years.
Hopefully, the Bengals can get off to a better start this year. They at least start things off with a solid matchup. They’re taking on the Buccaneers, and that game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5 points. Tampa Bay wasn’t quite as generous to opposing RBs as they were to quarterbacks, but they still allowed the 13th-highest fantasy points per game to the position last year.
If Brown can pick up where he left off last season, he is simply too cheap at his current salary across the industry. Specifically, he’s priced at just RB9 on FanDuel.
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Jeremiyah Love ($6,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
Love’s rookie season is not off to a great start. He picked up an ankle injury in the preseason, which could limit his availability in Week 1. Head coach Mike LaFleur said he feels “good” about Love’s chances of suiting up, but we’ll have to monitor that situation leading up to kickoff.
More concerning is that Love is listed behind Allgeier on the depth chart. That means that even if he’s able to suit up, he could serve as the Cardinals’ backup RB. That feels like malpractice after the team selected him third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, but we’ve seen coaches do crazy stuff with rookie RBs before.
While Love is tough to trust at his current DraftKings’ price, he could still be worth considering on FanDuel. The Cardinals are pretty big underdogs this week, and Love profiles as the team’s top pass-catching RB. Even if Allgeier handles more of the early-down work than initially anticipated, Love could feast if there’s some garbage time late. He ranks fourth in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s projected for less than 5% ownership.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
There are really only three big favorites at running back this week: Gibbs, Hampton, and Bhayshul Tuten. While the first two should be pretty popular, Tuten is going a bit overlooked. There are good reasons for that. It’s still unclear what kind of workload he’ll command in the team’s backfield, while the Browns were a brutal run defense to face last year.
Still, Tuten clearly has some upside. While it’s possible that Chris Rodriguez makes this more of a committee than ideal, Tuten should still see plenty of opportunities in this spot. With his big-play speed – he blazed a 4.33 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine – he doesn’t need a ton of looks to potentially rip off a long touchdown. There’s also no guarantee the Browns’ run defense is nearly as strong after losing Myles Garrett, making Tuten one of my favorite leverage plays this week.
Rico Dowdle ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Teams like the Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets, and Browns are considered the favorites to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, but don’t sleep on the Falcons. They might have the worst QB room in the entire NFL. Tagovailoa nearly became the first guy in history to lose a QB battle to a guy who was too hurt to practice. Things don’t look much better defensively, so they could be in for a long season.
The Steelers draw a matchup vs. the Falcons in Week 1, giving them some sneaky upside. While Pittsburgh wasn’t very good offensively last year, they did make some big additions this offseason. They brought in Dowdle at RB and Michael Pittman at receiver, while Mike McCarthy is a much more offensive-minded head coach.
Dowdle will comprise a committee with the incumbent Jaylen Warren, but this matchup fits Dowdle’s skill set better. If the Steelers can establish a lead, he will likely be the guy grinding down the clock late.
Mike Washington ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Washington will become a very chalky option if Ashton Jeanty is ultimately ruled out, but it appears as though he’s trending towards playing. We’ll need to wait until later in the week for a clearer picture.
However, even if Jeanty is active, Washington could be a bigger piece of the equation than expected. He absolutely lit up the preseason, and he has legit game-breaking speed. This is one of the few games where the Raiders will be favored this season, so there could be enough work for both RBs in Las Vegas.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
