The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Herbert vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
The first main Sunday slate of the season features 12 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with eight games in the early window and four in the later wave. In one of the later games, the Chargers host the Cardinals, and in that matchup, Justin Herbert has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in those projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has an 80% Bargain Rating since his salary is relatively lower.
Herbert will be starting his third season working under coach Jim Harbaugh, who is a perfect 6-0 in his six Week 1 games in the NFL. Our Vegas dashboard shows that the oddsmakers love the Chargers’ chances to make it seven in a row, making them 9.5-point favorites and giving them the highest implied team total of any team on the slate.
In Week 1, Herbert is tied with Joe Burrow for the most Pro Trends on DraftKings coming into the week.
Herbert threw 26 touchdowns and racked up 3,886 passing yards, averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per game in his 17 games last season (including the playoffs). He produced 20.4 DraftKings points per game at home, where he threw 16 of those scores and averaged just under 250 passing yards per game.
While he doesn’t get a ton of credit for it, Herbert chips in sneaky rushing production as well, averaging over 30 yards per game and adding a pair of touchdowns on the ground last year.
This week, he gets a great matchup against the Cardinals, who were one of the best QB matchups in the NFL coming down the stretch last season. Herbert tuned up with a little preseason action, but he should be ready to let it fly on Sunday in the first game of the season, and he brings very high upside, especially for a player who only has the seventh-highest salary at the position.
Top Value: Kyler Murray vs. Green Bay Packers – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
On both sites, Murray has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in an evenly balanced aggregate of the FantasyLabs projections and THE BLITZ projections. The new Vikings QB will jump right into a rivalry game at home against the Packers in Week 1, and he has the potential to be an outstanding value since he brings a very high ceiling with multiple paths to success.
Murray is shifting from the desert of Arizona to the frozen North (although this game is indoors), and he’ll be playing his first season with a team other than the Cardinals. Murray was a fantasy stud for several seasons as the key producer in the Cardinals’ offense, bringing both rushing and passing production when he was at his best.
Last year, he was effective when available, averaging 16.4 DraftKings points per game, but he only managed to play five games before being sidelined. He’ll look to turn his career around in Minnesota after beating out J.J. McCarthy for the starting job this training camp and preseason.
While it isn’t an ideal matchup, Murray gets a big upgrade in the QB-friendly system of coach Kevin O’Connell, and he also has a great group of pass-catchers to work with, led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, free-agent addition Jauan Jennings, and training camp star Tai Felton. Tight end T.J. Hockenson will also be very involved, giving Murray plenty of options to work with in addition to his own rushing upside, which is always an extra fantasy boost.
Even though he’ll face his new rivals, the Packers, Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons for at least the first four weeks of the season, and they are young and inexperienced at several key positions. Murray will look to make a big splash in his Vikings debut, and he’s a great value at this price point.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaymyr Gibbs vs. New Orleans Saints – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Close behind Herbert’s Chargers, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions have the second-highest implied team total in Week 1 as they host the Saints in what could be a track meet in the Motor City. Gibbs has the top median, ceiling, and floor projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections at running back.
Gibbs is entering his fourth season in the NFL, which will be his first without David Montgomery on the roster sharing the load in the backfield. He has put up outstanding per-touch numbers over the last few years and will now get the vast majority of the touches in the backfield with Montgomery playing for the Texans.
The Lions are set to be a very good offense this season, built around Gibbs, and the team also has a very questionable defense, which could lead to high-scoring games with monster numbers for Gibbs. He was a top-five running back last year even with Montgomery mixing in, and the sky is truly the limit now that he can claim that part of the workload as well.
If the Lions play from ahead against the Saints, Gibbs could be heavily featured in Week 1, and the projections love his upside in what should be a smash spot for him to start what could be a historic fantasy season for the Lions’ star.
Top Value: MarShawn Lloyd at Minnesota Vikings – $4,800 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Especially in Week 1, when salaries come out so far before kickoff, some obvious value spots emerge as things change and shift. One of the biggest changes in the backfield is in Green Bay, where Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and will not play in Week 1 in Minnesota.
Without Jacobs, the Packers will use a committee of MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson, whom they recently acquired from Pittsburgh. Lloyd is the current favorite for the most work, and as a result, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs this week in the aggregate projections and in Koerner’s projections. The other options ahead of him are all $7,000 or more, so he stands out as a very affordable way to still get production potential.
With Lloyd, it is all just “in theory,” though, since he has battled so many injuries since being a third-round pick from USC that he has been limited to only one career game back in 2024. He ran for 15 yards on six carries while adding a three-yard catch on his only target.
He looked good in training camp and the preseason and is poised to take on a huge workload for a running back under $5,000. While his durability is a concern for season-long fantasy, he’s worth considering as a Week 1 value play at his bargain salary in DFS. If he is the top option in the backfield as expected, he’ll have a high ceiling against the Vikings since both teams have offenses that can put up points when they’re rolling.
Even though he’s an unknown who brings some bust potential, Lloyd is projected to be one of the top values in the backfield and stands out as an affordable option on both sites, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
The Bengals host the Buccaneers in the early window in one of the games with the highest point totals. Since the Buccaneers were a good matchup for receivers last year and Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy coming into the year, both bring a high ceiling against Tampa.
Chase has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both sets of projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he also brings the highest Plus/Minus projection at his position. He will be trying to help Cincinnati avoid another slow start this year, and he always has the potential to break the slate with a huge game.
Last year, Chase averaged 21 DraftKings points per game and finished the year with four straight games over that mark. He finished with 125 catches for 1,412 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He led the league in targets for a second straight season and should be poised for another heavy workload with plenty of opportunities to make big plays all year long.
Chase did have an injury scare a few weeks ago, when he hyperextended his knee, but he has been practicing in full and should be good to go against the Bucs.
He’s an expensive play, but he brings the kind of ceiling that is worth paying up for while also bringing a high floor due to his volume. If he and Burrow are healthy, Chase should be set for another huge year, starting with Week 1’s home game against Tampa Bay.
Top Value: Jayden Reed at Minnesota Vikings – $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
The Packers may have to lean more heavily on Jayden Reed while Jacobs is out as well. Reed has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position under $6,000 on FanDuel and the seventh-highest under $6,000 on DraftKings in the aggregate projections.
Reed has worked out of the backfield before and has shown big-play ability when healthy and at his best. He posted strong numbers as a big-play threat as a rookie in 2023, scoring 10 total touchdowns. He followed that up with similar numbers in 2024, totaling a career-high 1,020 rushing and receiving yards with seven touchdowns. Last year, though, Reed suffered a mostly lost season after fracturing his foot in the preseason and his collarbone in Week 2.
He missed almost three months with the injuries but was able to return to the lineup in December. In his four games, he snagged at least three passes in each game, getting 4.25 targets per contest. He had a touchdown for the Packers in the playoffs as well, finishing with four catches on seven targets for 43 yards and a touchdown.
The Packers had a tricky WR rotation to figure out last year, with multiple injuries (including Reed’s) making the target share inconsistent from week to week. With Romeo Doubs leaving for New England and Dontayvion Wicks ready to play for the Eagles, Reed is clearly in the top three receivers now, joined by Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Reed is an explosive playmaker with big-time upside, and he comes at an affordable salary. The Vikings pass defense was solid last year, especially against receivers in the slot, where Reed could spend plenty of time.
With some decent value expected, though, he has one of the best Plus/Minus projections in his price range. On DraftKings, Tre Tucker of the Raiders, Devaughn Vele of the Saints, and Caleb Douglas of the Dolphins are also underpriced for their expected roles. On FanDuel, some of the best affordable values besides Reed are Tucker, Jalen Coker of the Panthers, and Josh Downs of the Colts.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Los Angeles Chargers – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Last year, McBride was an automatic choice for this top-ceiling spot whenever he was on the main slate, and this season, he continues to bring the top projections across the board by a wide margin. With Brock Bowers (knee) out, McBride stands out as the top option with the highest ceiling, median, and floor in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has an 83% Bargain Rating.
In 2025, McBride set an NFL record for the most receptions by a tight end in a season with 126 catches for 1,239 yards. While he only had six touchdowns in his first three seasons combined, he scored 11 times last year, helping him to average over 19 DraftKings points per game.
His targets kept on coming after Jacoby Brissett took over for Murray midseason, and Brissett will be back under center for the Cardinals this week after agreeing to a revised contract in July. While the team will be running a new system under new coach Mike LaFleur, McBride should remain a high-volume target with massive upside.
McBride starts the season with a tough matchup against the Chargers, who were good against tight ends last year, but he has proven to be matchup-proof and can post big numbers, especially when the Cardinals are trying to rally from behind. If they’re chasing Herbert and the Chargers in the late game, look for McBride to post another ceiling game to start his new season.
Top Value: Michael Mayer vs. Miami Dolphins – $2,900 on DraftKings, $4,600 on FanDuel
Even if Brock Bowers (knee) were healthy, Michael Mayer would have been a strong value to consider on DraftKings with his salary under $3,000, but with Bowers missing Week 1 after a knee procedure, Mayer has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel in the aggregate projections.
The Raiders are short on pass-catchers without Bowers and will have to lean heavily on Mayer since their starting receivers are Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech. New quarterback Kirk Cousins will spread the ball around but probably look Mayer’s way often enough to make him an excellent value at his salary.
Last season, Mayer played four games without Bowers, totaling 18 catches on 24 targets for a total of 196 receiving yards and a touchdown. He averaged double-digit DraftKings points across those four games and flashed a very high ceiling at the end of last season against the Giants, hauling in nine of 10 targets for 89 yards.
Bowers could be set for a multi-week absence again, so Mayer is a strong season-long addition as well, but for DFS, he gets a great matchup in Week 1 since he’s facing the Dolphins. Last year, Miami gave up the third-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends. While both teams have new QBs and new coaches this season, Mayer should still find plenty of space to operate and have a chance to step up as the team’s go-to option for as long as Bowers is sidelined.
Pictured: Kyler Murray
Photo Credit: Imagn
