FantasyLabs PGA Perfect% and SimLeverage
This week we are excited to be launching two new data columns into our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”
The first column (Perfect%), will reflect the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations, driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.
The second column, (SimLeverage), shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership.
How it Works
Each week, every player in the field is assigned a range of outcomes determined by their mean DFS projection and their associated standard deviation. For each simulation run, every player in the field is assigned a DFS score.
These scores are based on every golfer’s individual range of outcomes and will mimic expected real-life outcomes that each player could produce in that week’s tournament. After each simulation run, we calculate the “perfect” lineup for that simulation (maximizing points while staying under the salary cap). We then repeat this process thousands of times, counting how often each player appears in the “perfect” lineup along the way.
At the end of the last simulation run, we’re left with every player in the field’s percentage chance of landing in the “perfect” lineup for that week. Armed with this knowledge on a weekly basis, you can gain a substantial edge over the field.
How to Use it For DFS
Not sure if the golfer that is projecting for high ownership is worth eating chalk on in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)? Check their SimLeverage number.
A golfer with a negative SimLeverage number indicates their Perfect% is less than their projected ownership and could be a good fade candidate for the week. In other words, this means the percentage chance of them landing in the perfect lineup is lower than the field is rostering them at.
Searching for a low-rostered golfer that the field is overlooking to differentiate your GPP rosters? Look for players with a higher SimLeverage number. This means their projected ownership is lower than their Perfect%, and more likely to land in the perfect lineup than their low ownership indicates. These players are great candidates to go overweight on vs. the field.
Perfect% is a great way to determine the true “best” price-considered plays on the slate for cash games and provides excellent data to help identify the leverage opportunities that are essential to taking down first place in tournaments.
Be sure to add Perfect% and SimLeverage into your weekly process, along with our other PGA tools such as our Lineup Builder, and Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups within seconds.