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PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Mar 3, 2025

For the PGA TOUR’s third of eight Signature Events this season, we head to Bay Hill Club and Lodge (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill has hosted every Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979, and Scottie Scheffler (-15) is the defending champion after winning by five shots last year. This week’s field consists of 72 golfers, and the top 50 and ties and any player within 10 shots of the lead will advance through the cut after the first two rounds.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The CliffsNotes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Tool Highlights

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DraftKings $10,000+ Range

Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)

Scheffler is worth paying up for at Bay Hill. The world No. 1 has finished first, T4th, and first at the par 72 the last three years, and his five-shot victory at Bay Hill last season is the largest margin of victory at the course since Tiger Woods in 2012. Scheffler is gaining 2.9 strokes per round at Bay Hill, and he owns a 5.3 average career finish at the course, both of which are by far the best in this field. Scheffler has finished inside the top five in four of his past seven starts.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $9,000 Range

Justin Thomas ($9,400)

Thomas finished T12th at Bay Hill last season, and he should outdo himself with an even higher finish this week. At No. 8, Thomas sits 16 spots higher in the world golf rankings than he did when he teed it up at Bay Hill last year, and he has been sensational in 2025 with three top-10 finishes in five starts. Thomas led the world-class field at the Genesis Invitational in SG: Approach in his last start, which is the second straight start that he has gained at least five strokes on approach. Thomas ranks fifth in SG: Approach for the season, and he should flourish at Bat Hill, where four of the last five winners have finished the event top-12 in SG: Approach.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100)

Fleetwood has produced three top-10 finishes in eight starts at Bay Hill, and he has been incredible with his irons this season, leading the PGA TOUR in SG: Approach. The Englishman is on the heels of a T5 at the Genesis Invitational, which is his fourth top-five finish in his last eight starts worldwide, and as always, Fleetwood is a strong cash game target this week.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Russell Henley ($8,800)

Henley’s awesome start to the season continued last week at the Cognizant Classic with a T6 finish. The veteran gained strokes in every major category at PGA National, and he has now finished inside the top 10 in three of his four starts in 2025. To combine with his always stellar iron play, Henley has vastly improved his work on the greens this season, ranking 19th on the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting. He has collectively gained strokes on approach and with his flat stick in three of his four starts this season, and Henley should finish inside the top 10 this weekend. At Bay Hill a year ago, the 35-year-old finished T4th and gained strokes in every major category.

Shane Lowry ($8,200)

Lowry finished T3rd at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he returns to the Florida venue playing outstanding golf. In his last 10 starts, Lowry has finished T13 or better eight times, most notably with a runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month, which is also a Signature Event. Lowry’s well-balanced game is ideal for the challenging conditions of Bay Hill, and he is a tremendous value at this affordable price tag.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Corey Conners ($7,800)

Conners has been great at Bay Hill, finishing T3rd, T11th, T21st, and T18th in his last four visits to the difficult track. Conner has only finished inside the top 25 twice in five starts this season, but he leads the PGA TOUR in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200 yards or greater, which sets him perfectly for his return to Bay Hill. Over the last five years, 28.8% of the approach shots at Bay Hill have been from at least 200 yards out. Conners has top-20 upside this weekend and is tough to overlook at less than $8,000.

Adam Scott ($7,500)

Scott is a terrific bargain at this low price tag. The veteran has been consistent with a top-25 finish in eight of his last 10 starts, and he checks all the boxes for Bay Hill in his current form. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Scott ranks 14th in SG: Approach and first in Par-5 Efficiency. Of the last four winners at Bay Hill, three have finished the event top-12 in both SG: Approach and Par-5 Efficiency. Furthermore, Scott ranks seventh in proximity to the hole on approach shots from at least 200 yards this season. At Bay Hill, Scott has produced nine finishes of T31st or better in 14 starts.

Si Woo Kim ($7,400)

Kim has finished T26th, T39th, and T30th at the past three Arnold Palmer Invitationals, and he travels to Bay Hill this week in compelling form. Kim has carded three top-25 finishes in a row, and he gained strokes on approach during all three of these starts. Two of these finishes came at Signature Events, and Kim has shot under par in 75% of his rounds this season. The 29-year-old was priced up to $7,700 for last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Kim is one of the best values on the board at only $7,400 this week.

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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range

Patrick Rodgers ($6,900)

Rodgers is in the midst of a great season, and he is a must-play at this sub-$7,000 salary. Rodgers has made 5-of-6 cuts this season, including four top-25 finishes. The 32-year-old just finished T18th at the Cognizant Classic last week, and during this finish, he ranked second in SG: Putting for the tournament and carded a 5-under 66 during the third round. Rodgers has shot under par in 11 of his past 12 rounds, and at Bay Hill, he has made 6-of-8 cuts with four top-25 finishes, including a T25 last season.

Nick Taylor ($6,700)

Taylor is an elite value play this week. The Canadian finished T12th at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he has been stellar this season. Taylor has yet to miss a cut in six starts, and he has recorded four top-25 finishes, including a win at the Sony Open in January and a T9 at the Genesis Invitational in his last start. Taylor ranks fourth in SG: Approach this season and absolutely shouldn’t have been priced this low.