Luther Burden had a pretty quiet start to his rookie season, but he broke out down the stretch. He was a legit-league winner for fantasy purposes, including a WR1 overall finish in Week 17, and he followed that up with two seven-target performances in the playoffs.
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It has resulted in pretty high expectations for Burden’s second season. He’s being drafted as WR22 on both Underdog and DraftKings, routinely coming off the board in the fourth round.
Are those expectations too high for Burden, or is it possible that they’re not high enough? Let’s make the case for and against Burden before delivering our final verdict.
The Case For Burden
From an efficiency standpoint, Burden was one of the best receivers in football last season. He averaged 2.68 yards per route run, which was the third-best mark among receivers with at least 100 routes. The only two players better than him? Puka Nacua (3.70) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3.61), who were the unquestioned top two receivers in fantasy.
If Burden can maintain that level of efficiency with a larger workload, he has the potential to be an elite fantasy option at receiver. Fortunately for him, the Bears made the decision to trade away D.J. Moore this offseason. He was second on the team with 85 targets last season, and Burden could assume a decent chunk of those. Olamide Zaccheaus and his 65 targets are also gone, so there are plenty of looks up for grabs in the Bears’ offense.
Even with both of those players in the lineup last year, Burden still looked like the team’s go-to receiver down the stretch. He led the team in target share from Week 13 on, despite being on the field for just 61% of the team’s passing plays. He was targeted on 24% of his routes run, which is an excellent figure. His route percentage should jump way up in his second year, which should result in a higher target share overall.
Finally, Burden is a borderline elite prospect. He was selected 39th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he broke out as a true sophomore at the University of Missouri. He showed off excellent speed at his pro day, and he turned that into plenty of big plays as a rookie. Burden had 11 catches of 20+ yards and two of 40+, despite recording just 47 receptions overall. For comparison, Ja’Marr Chase had just 15 and two, respectively, despite catching 125 balls.
The Case Against Burden
Burden’s end to last year was promising, but are we really sure he’s going to be the guy for Chicago next season? Rome Odunze got off to a fantastic start before getting hurt last year, while Colston Loveland emerged as a major threat down the stretch. Both of those guys were first-round NFL Draft picks, so they’re just as likely (if not more likely) to break out than Burden.
Additionally, Burden’s overall body of work last year isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. He finished his rookie year with just 47 catches, 652 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. He was merely WR50 in terms of 0.5-PPR scoring, so there is significant growth being projected into his current price tag. It’s very possible that Burden takes a step forward in year two and still isn’t able to pay off that figure.
Burden also still has to prove that he’s a complete NFL receiver. A whopping 26% of his targets came on screens last year. Burden was still productive on non-screen looks – 2.35 yards per route run, 0.43 fantasy points per target – but the fact remains that a lot of his opportunities were scripted. If Burden continues to be primarily a “gadget” player and less of a complete receiver, it’s going to be tough for him to pay off his ADP.
The Verdict
I understand the skepticism that some have with Burden. He really did very little at the start of his rookie season, and he does have two legit prospects to compete with for targets in Odunze and Loveland. The fact that he’s being pushed so far up the board certainly doesn’t help. In previous years, you might’ve been able to get Burden at a bit of a discount. That’s really not an option at this point.
Still, I’m a believer in his ability. Players with his underlying efficiency and pedigree have a solid track record of success, and he plays for one of the best offenses in football. They were seventh overall in EPA per play and No. 9 in EPA per pass attempt.
Our experts are also pretty bullish on Burden. Sean Koerner has him at WR17, while Chris Gimino has him at WR18. Both guys have him inside their top 37 overall, which represents a solid value compared to his ADP. As aggressive as Burden’s rise might feel, it still might not be quite high enough. He’s a perfect WR2 for fantasy purposes, with the potential to finish as a top-10 option at the position.
Pictured: Luther Burden
Photo Credit: Imagn
