The biggest week on the golf calendar is finally here! While there are other great tournaments, an entire playoff system, memorable holes and courses, and three other major championships, nothing compares to the history, prestige, and anticipation of the Masters every year at Augusta National. There is no surer and faster way to establish yourself as an elite golfer than to don the green jacket at the end of the Final Round. Who will emerge as the big winner this year, and whom should you target for your fantasy team? Let’s take a look.
As usual at Augusta, there are so many story lines to focus on featuring a rich blend of history, rising stars, and golfers at the top of their games. With 13 LIV players in the field, it feels even more special to have all the best players in the world on the same course. The unquestioned No. 1 player in the world is Scottie Scheffler after he won back-to-back tournaments and claimed his second straight win at THE PLAYERS. Scottie is looking for his second win at Augusta after winning in 2022.
While Scottie is a heavy favorite, there are plenty of other elite options, including defending champ Jon Rahm, who beat out fellow LIV player Brooks Koepka to win last year. Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark are the other players that round out the five players with salaries of over five figures. Akshay Bhatia punched his ticket to his first Masters last week by winning the Valero Texas Open in a wild playoff over Denny McCarthy, who is also making his Augusta debut.
Augusta National is the true gold standard of PGA TOUR courses and the only course that hosts a major championship every year. There have been only a few slight modifications to the track this year, so Amen Corner, Ike’s Pond, and Rae’s Creek will be in place ready to bear witness as more history is made. Statistically, the course stands out for its demanding approach shots and severely sloped lightning-fast green complexes that are constantly a challenge to the top golfers in the world.
This week truly lives up to its hype as “A Tradition Unlike Any Other,” and it’s a great week to get a fantasy golf team in the mix, whether you are making your debut, you play every week, or you just show up for the biggest tournaments.
In this post each week, we focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for success in GPP. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
In this post, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
This week, DraftKings has a massive GPP that has a $10 entry fee for a chance at a share of $4 Million in prizes. The $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire awards $1,000,000 to the first-place winner.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Jon Rahm $11,200
Based on our sims and ownership projections, Rahm is one of the strongest leverage plays in the field. The defending champion at Augusta has the second-highest Perfect% behind only Scheffler, but Scottie is projected to almost double Rahm’s ownership. I get it- Scheffler has been great, but Rahm is a very strong GPP pivot for almost $1,000 less. Rahm’s lower ownership projection gives him the second-highest SimLeverage in the field.
Part of the reason people are passing on Rahm is that he’s been out of sight, out of mind on the LIV Tour. Overall, LIV ownership projections are a little lower due to negative public sentiment and less attention to their events.
Rahm’s game is an awesome fit for this course, and he has finished in the top 27 in each of his seven career appearances at Augusta. He had already posted four top 10s before cruising to a four-stroke win last year. There have been only three back-to-back winners of the Masters, and Rahm will be looking to join an exclusive club that currently includes only Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Nick Faldo.
Rahm has his Legion XII expansion team in second place on the LIV Tour, and they have already won two events, including the Miami event last week. Rahm leads LIV in birdies and has finished in the top 10 individually in each of the five events he has played this year.
With so much awesome course history and good recent form, Rahm should be in the mix again this Sunday. We’ve seen that LIV golfers can still contend at major championships since the split, and Rahm has way more of a chance to win this week than his ownership projection indicates.
Wyndham Clark $10,000
Clark is another leverage play to consider due to his very low ownership projection of under 8%. The 30-year-old is making his debut at the Masters while coming off a back injury, but the lack of attention he’s getting has turned him into an extremely strong leverage play. He is tied for the second-highest Leverage in the field and has the fourth-highest SimLeverage.
Clark also matches 11 Pro Trends this week, more than any other player in the field.
Last June, Clark proved his major championship mettle by winning the U.S. Open over an elite field at The Los Angeles Country Club. Since then, Clark has continued to post impressive results on tough tracks in elite fields. He finished third at the TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP and started 2024 with a win at the Signature Event at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Over the last month, Clark finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and at THE PLAYERS Championship, where a vicious lip-out on the final hole was the only thing that separated him from a playoff against Scheffler. He tweaked his back before the Texas Children’s Houston Open but made the cut and finished T33. Over the last 20 rounds, Clark ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained and leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting
Thankfully, the back issue is not expected to impact his play this week, so the injury just helps drive down his ownership. There’s a strong case to be made that he has been the second-most consistent player on the PGA TOUR this season behind only Scottie, so getting him at under 10% ownership is a great pay-up leverage play.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Ludvig Aberg $9,100
Aberg has the second-best SimLeverage of the golfers with salaries in the $9,000s this week due to his ownership projection under 12%. Only three golfers priced $9,000 or higher have lower ownership projections despite the fact that Aberg comes into the Masters on a nice roll and has a high ceiling.
Like Clark, he’ll be making his debut at Augusta, but unlike Clark, this will also be his first major championship. Aberg has been very impressive over the 10 months since he made his professional debut at last June’s Canadian Open. He won the Omega European Masters and The RSM Classic while posting 14 top 25s in his 17 events and climbing into the top 10 in the OWGR. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 14 DraftKings events as well.
Aberg ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 50 rounds, third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. While this will be his first Masters, both he and Clark have proven they have the mental game to break the stigma around first-time players not being able to win, and both have proven they have the kind of game to win in elite fields.
Justin Thomas $8,700
If you’re looking for a bold play in the $8,000s, Thomas is a great option to consider. His ownership projection is under 7% and he has the seventh-highest SimLeverage and 13th-highest Leverage in the field. He also has the third-highest Perfect% of players with salaries in the $8,000s but still comes as a good leverage play.
We know JT can win- he has 15 PGA TOUR wins including two major victories at the 2017 and 2022 PGA Championship. He struggled last season, missing the FedExCup playoffs but looked strong in the early part of 2024. He finished T3 at the American Express and followed that with top 15s at Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale and Bay Hill in tough tournaments. Although he tripped up at THE PLAYERS and the Valspar, he was rolling along nicely before that.
Thomas has a great history at Augusta with six finishes in the top 25 including a solo 4th in 2020 and a T8 in 2022. He did miss the cut last season but comes in with much better form this year. In the 2024 season, he ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
For Thomas, it’s all about his putter catching fire. If that happens, he’ll be right back in contention this week, and getting him at this low ownership projection will make him the ultimate risk-reward leverage option for GPP entries.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Russell Henley $7,200
While I like Sahith Theegala and Jason Day in the upper $7,000s, Theegala’s ownership projection is a little high for me, and Day has been a little too inconsistent this season. Instead, I’m going with a couple of value plays from under $7,500. Russell Henley has the highest ceiling projection and the highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $7,500. His ownership projection of around 15% is palatable for his value as long as you find other places to differentiate your Henley lineups.
Before a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, he made six cuts to start the year. Those made cuts included a T4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational just under a month ago. Last week, he bounced back from that missed cut at TPC Sawgrass with another T4 at the Valero Texas Open.
Over the last 16 rounds, Henley ranks No. 21 in Strokes Gained: Approach. He ranks in the top 10 in Total Strokes Gained during that span as well.
Henley is a native of Georgia and has posted excellent results at Augusta. In his last six appearances, he has finished no worse than T31 and finished in the top 15 in three of the last four years, culminating in last year’s T4. He’s a great pick to be on the leaderboard again this Sunday.
Akshay Bhatia $7,200
Bhatia dominated most of last week’s tournament at TPC San Antonio, a course set up to mirror Augusta National in many ways to help the pros tune up their games for this week. If it wasn’t for a heroic charge from Denny McCarthy, who will also make his Masters debut, Bhatia would have lapped the field. Despite that impressive showing, his ownership projection is under 5% for this week, and he brings the highest SimLeverage of any player in the $7,000-$7,500 window.
In his second PGA TOUR win in the last year, the lanky lefty showed plenty of versatility. He gained strokes in almost every metric for every round. Over his last 30 rounds, Bhatia ranks fifth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Bhatia has been boom-or-bust this season, which is normal for young golfers. He finished T17 or better in six of the 10 starts but missed the cut in his other four appearances. For most of the season, he has shown he can drive the ball long and straight while gaining strokes on approach as well. He has the right formula to tame Augusta, and even though this is his first Masters, he did play here competitively before in the Drive, Chip, and Putt National Finals in 2014.
Lefty players have a history of success at Augusta, with both Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson winning multiple green jackets over the last 22 years. The course lends itself to lefty ball shapes, which could help Bhatia build on last week’s success with another strong showing as a value play this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
J.T Poston $6,800
Poston has the third-highest Perfect% and the highest SimLeverage of all players with salaries under $7,000. His ownership projection is under 2%, making him a great sleeper play if he lives up to his projections. After missing the cut in his Masters debut in 2020 in the Fall version, he finished T34 last year.
This season, Poston has climbed into the top 50 in the OWGR with four top 11 finishes in nine events. Dating back to last season, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 of 18 events. He finished in the top 10 at The Sentry and Genesis Invitational, which were both Signature Events, meaning they had very strong fields.
Poston is a long shot, but he’s one that our projections indicate has a great shot to be a worthwhile sleeper play.
Adam Schenk $6,200
If you’re really looking to stuff stars into your lineup, you may want to go ultra-cheap in one of your roster spots. Schenk comes with boom-or-bust potential and is another one of my picks that is making his Masters debut.
He comes in with nice momentum after exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of 11 tournaments, and he climbed to a T5 finish with a closing 67 last Sunday at the Valero. Schenk had been struggling with his iron play but seemed to find his footing in a T19 at THE PLAYERS. He made the cut the following week at the Valspar Championship and then posted his best finish of the season (and his first top 10) last week in San Antonio.
Schenk ranks 11th in the field in Total Strokes Gained in the last 12 rounds and 19th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green during that span. While he has not yet made the cut in any of his major championship appearances, his recent form and ability to get hot make him an intriguing punt play with upside.
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