Wednesday features Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks. The Spurs are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 218.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are way ahead of schedule. They’re still one of the youngest teams in the NBA, but that hasn’t stopped them from being one of the best. They just knocked out the defending champs in a grueling seven-game series, with their star big man taking home the MVP.
From a statistical standpoint, Wembanyama wasn’t quite at his best vs. the Thunder. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of the final five games, including just 38.75 DraftKings points in the clincher.
However, he is still the clear top producer on this slate. He’s been absolutely dominant on a per-minute basis all season, and he’s now playing upwards of 40 minutes in competitive games. We currently have Wemby projected for 38.5 minutes, giving him a ceiling that very few players in the NBA can match. He leads this slate in ceiling projection by more than 12 points, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus.
The Knicks lack a Wembanyama-level star, but Jalen Brunson is pretty damn close. Despite his diminutive stature, he has evolved into one of the best guards in the NBA. He averaged 26.0 points per game during the regular season, and he’s increased that figure to 26.9 during the playoffs.
The Knicks are currently in the midst of an 11-game winning streak, and Brunson has been instrumental in that run. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of those outings, and the three exceptions were all blowouts. He logged 30.9 minutes or fewer in two of them and 33.9 in the third.
Brunson should play significantly more than that if Wednesday’s game is more competitive. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to navigate one of the most brutal possible matchups. If you were going to construct a team in a lab to slow down Brunson, it would look a lot like the Spurs. They have a bunch of physical guards to throw at him and the 7’5” Wembanyama to clean things up in the back.
That said, Brunson did have success against the Spurs during the regular season. He averaged 26.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.0 rebounds in their two matchups, and he had 25 points, eight assists, and four rebounds in the NBA Cup Finals. Wembanyama was limited in that outing, but he was fully available for the other two games.
Ultimately, Brunson stands out as a middling option. He has the third-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models, but he’s merely middle of the pack in terms of projected Plus/Minus. That said, his ownership projection is easily the lowest of the stud tier, so he still has some appeal for large tournaments.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the Knicks’ other superstar. He hasn’t always looked like a star this season, but he has really elevated his play over the past few months. He’s been excellent during the postseason in particular, posting a positive Plus/Minus in 12 straight games. Towns has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in five of those outings, so he’s provided a nice combination of value and upside.
The big development has been using Towns more as a distributor. By running the offense more through him, he’s increased his assist total from 3.0 per game during the regular season to 5.9 in the playoffs. He’s still a massive threat as a scorer and on the glass, so he’s added another dimension to his fantasy profile.
Towns is going to have to continue to produce at that level to give the Knicks a chance in this series. Our projections are pretty bullish on Towns in this spot, giving him higher projections than Brunson at a slightly cheaper price tag. He’s third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and pairing him with Wembanyama will likely be the default build for most.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Stephon Castle is another big piece of the young Spurs’ core. He’s just 21-years-old, but he did not look like the moment was too big for him in the Western Conference Finals. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games vs. the Thunder, with the lone exception being a game with less than 30 minutes.
Turnovers were an issue for Castle in that series, but that isn’t a deal breaker for fantasy. The Knicks’ defense also isn’t quite as ferocious as OKC’s, so he should be more in control. The good has far outweighed the bad for Castle, and his $8,600 salary is slightly cheaper than it was for the conclusion of the Western Conference Finals.
Josh Hart is the big X-factor for the Knicks. When he is shooting the ball well, they look like a juggernaut. When he isn’t – and opposing defenses can basically ignore him – the team becomes much more beatable.
We saw both versions of Hart in the team’s sweep vs. the Cavaliers. He had just 29.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and ultimately lost some playing time down the stretch. However, he bounced back with 47.5 DraftKings points in Game 2, knocking down five of 11 3-point attempts.
As long as Hart is on the floor, he’s going to rack up fantasy points. He’s capable of contributing in every area across the board, and he’s one of the best rebounding wings in basketball. He’s projected for 34.5 minutes in Game 1, and he ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
De’Aaron Fox is the veteran presence in the Spurs’ lineup. He missed the first two games of the Thunder series, and the Spurs turned the ball over in bunches in his absence. He was able to give the team some stability when he returned in Game 3, even if he hasn’t quite been at 100%.
Fox has struggled to get his offense going since returning to the lineup. He shot the ball dreadfully in Games 3 through 6 vs. the Thunder, but he did knock down 50% of his shots in Game 7. It’s possible that he’s gotten a bit healthier, and the rest after Game 7 should help even more. Fox’s price tag has come down significantly since the start of the postseason, so he’s an interesting buy-low option on this slate.
OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges round out the Knicks’ starting lineup. Both players fill similar roles for this squad: play lockdown defense, provide perimeter spacing, and serve as secondary creators for Brunson. Anunoby has been the more consistent option of the two this season, but both players have been excellent of late. Anunoby has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two playoff outings, while Bridges has done it in nine straight games.
Bridges is projected for slightly more playing time in Game 1, while Anunoby is the better per-minute producer. Both guys stand out as solid options in the midrange, with Anunoby getting a slight edge in our projections.
Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie are the Spurs’ wing duo. They’re not quite as good as the Knicks’ tandem, but both guys have delivered outstanding performances at times this postseason. Vassell erupted for 41.25 DraftKings points in Game 3 vs. the Thunder, while Champagnie had at least 33.25 DraftKings points in two of the final three games of that series.
Both guys’ primary role is to provide perimeter spacing for the rest of the lineup. On nights when their shots are falling, they’re capable of putting up big numbers.
Dylan Harper rounds out this price range, and it will be interesting to see how much he plays in this series. He’s arguably the Spurs’ third-best player, but his playing time has been limited since Fox returned to the lineup. He logged less than 25 minutes in Games 3 through 6 before getting to 27.1 in Game 7.
Harper is only currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s talented enough to pay off his currently salary with that much court time, but it makes him a risky option. He had 18.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four straight games vs. the Thunder before scoring 32.0 and 25.25 in the final two.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Landry Shamet ($4,800): Shamet has bounced around the NBA for most of his career, but he has found a home with the Knicks this season. He has become an important part of their rotation, and he was lights out in their sweep vs. the Cavs. He was 11-12 from 3-point range, and he had at least 20.75 DraftKings points in his past two games. Unfortunately, his salary has reached the point where he’s tough to trust in Game 1. He’s almost certainly due for some shooting regression, and he’s projected for just 18 minutes.
- Miles McBride ($4,400): The same goes for McBride. He’s coming off 24.0 DraftKings points in the closeout win over the Cavaliers, but he had a negative Plus/Minus in the first three games of that series. He’s projected for just 14 minutes in our NBA Models, which is not enough to justify a $4,400 price tag.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,000): Robinson is currently dealing with a broken pinky finger on his right hand, but it seems that he’s going to play through it. It makes him a high-risk, high-reward type of option. Robinson has been extremely impactful when on the floor, but who knows how much he’ll be able to play. The broken finger means he could be even worse than usual on foul shots, so the Spurs could employ an intentional foul strategy to force him off the court.
- Keldon Johnson ($3,600): Johnson looked lost for most of the Thunder series, but he finished with three straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. He knocked down some huge shots in the fourth quarter of Game 7, so perhaps that will propel him to a strong showing in Game 1.
- Luke Kornet ($2,400): Kornet was basically unplayable vs. the Thunder, but that might not be the case vs. the Knicks.
- Jose Alvarado ($1,600): Alvarado has done most of his work in garbage time during the playoffs, but he’s a defensive-minded point guard who could be needed at times vs. the Spurs.
- Jordan Clarkson ($1,400): Clarkson is still capable of putting the ball in the basket, though how much he’ll play in this series remains to be seen.
- Carter Bryant ($1,200): Bryant is a promising part of the Spurs’ future, but his playing time waned as the series vs. the Thunder progressed. He’s probably not going to have much of a role in the Finals before becoming a more important piece in future years.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,000): Barnes was a part of the Spurs’ rotation during the regular season, but he has not played much in the playoffs.
Pictured: Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: Imagn
