PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the 3M Open

Following The Open Championship, up next is the 3M Open played at TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards, bentgrass greens) in Blaine, Minnesota. This course has been the home of the 3M Open since its inception in 2019, and at this event last year, Kurt Kitayama (-23) won by one stroke. This week’s field consists of 144 golfers, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

DraftKings $9,000

Kurt Kitayama ($9,800)

Scottie Scheffler is making his 3M Open debut this week and is a massive favorite, carrying +265 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this event. This is a weak field, and Scheffler is worlds better than any other player competing. The problem is, he costs $14,900 for DFS, and rostering Scheffler leaves you with just $7,020 per player for the remaining 5 spots in your lineup. The punt plays are unsurprisingly shaky in this field, and getting 6/6 players through the cut in a Scheffler lineup is going to be a challenge. So, I prefer to fade Scheffler for cash games and start lineups with Kitayama, whose record at TPC Twin Cities is undeniable.

Before winning at this course last year, Kitayama finished T6 in his first start at TPC Twin Cities the year prior. The 33-year-old shot a career-low 11-under 60 at this venue last year, and Kitayama leads this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC Twin Cities. The two-time PGA TOUR winner travels back to Blaine in the midst of a great season, making 16 of 18 cuts and producing 9 top-25 finishes. Kitayama ranks 10th in SG:APP and 25th in par 4 performance, setting him up perfectly for TPC Twin Cities, as 3 of the last 4 winners here have finished the event top 8 in both categories. Also, Kitayama ranks 15th in proximity to the hole on 175-200-yard approach shots, and 23.2% of the approach shots at TPC Twin Cities over the last 5 years have come from this distance. Kitayama should add another great finish to his 3M Open resume, and it’s surprising he is priced under $10,000.

Tom Kim ($9,300)

While Kim missing the cut at The Open Championship last week was a letdown, we need to move on quickly from this, as he is one of the best targets for the 3M Open. Kim just won the Genesis Scottish Open the week before the Open Championship, and he finished solo third at the U.S. Open last month. Kim has made 15 of 18 cuts with 5 top-25 finishes this season, and he has finished T26 and T28 at TPC Twin Cities. While solid performances, Kim should finish higher this time around, as he is striking the ball better than ever. Kim ranks 5th in SG:APP and 18th in proximity to the hole on 175-200-yard approach shots this season.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Jackson Suber ($8,900)

After a poor start to the season, Suber has really turned things around, missing only 1 cut in his last 8 starts and finishing inside the top 6 3 times during this span. Notably, all 3 of these finishes came at TPC courses, and Suber ranks 3rd in this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC tracks this season. On top of these high finishes, Suber posted a T28 in his Open Championship debut last week, and he opened this major with a 5-under 65, which was the lowest score of the first round. Suber ranks 4th in SG:T2G when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. The 26-year-old missed the cut in his TPC Twin Cities debut last season, but Suber sits 54 spots higher in the world golf rankings now, and he brings big upside this week.

Max Homa ($8,600)

Homa has never missed a cut in 3 starts at TPC Twin Cities, with his best being a T3 in 2020. Homa has shot as low as a 7-under 64 at this par 71 and returns as the maker of 9 of his last 10 cuts with 5 top-30 finishes over this time. Homa’s best finish of the season came at TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic last month, when he finished runner-up by one shot, and he ranks 9th in this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC courses this season.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

John Keefer ($7,800)

Only once in his last 9 starts has Keefer missed the cut, and he has carded a pair of top-10 finishes during this stretch, including a T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open 2 weeks ago. Keefer is a stellar ball striker who ranks top 15 in both SG:OTT and SG:APP this season, and he should excel in his 3M Open debut this week.

Brian Harman ($7,400)

Harman missed the cut at The Open Championship last week, but this is just the second time in his last 16 starts that he has done so. Harman has finished inside the top 35 6 times over this span, and TPC Twin Cities is a great place for him to get back on track. Harman has finished T7 and T41 in his 2 starts at this par 71, and he ranks 13th in this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC Twin Cities.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,300)

At only $7,300, it’s hard to argue against Grillo. The veteran has made 5 straight cuts and carded 3 consecutive finishes of T26 or better. Grillo now makes his way to TPC Twin Cities, where he has been outstanding. In 6 starts here, Grillo has finished T3, MC, runner-up, T10, T24, and T20. The 33-year-old has 5 rounds of 66 or lower at TPC Twin Cities, and he ranks 6th in this field in Strokes Gained per round at this venue.

Ben Kohles ($7,300)

Kohles has finished T24 and T20 at TPC Twin Cities the last 2 years, and he has been on a tear lately. After winning the BMW Charity Open by 4 shots on the Korn Ferry Tour last month, Kohles has finished T29 or better in 5 straight starts between the PGA TOUR and the Korn Ferry Tour. Included in this run is a T23 at the U.S. Open, a T3 at the John Deere Classic, and a T15 at the ISCO Championship. Kohles has shot under par in 11 of his past 12 rounds, and he ranks 3rd in SG:TOT when we compare this field’s last 12 rounds. Furthermore, Kohles ranks 8th in this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC courses this season, with his T3 at TPC Deere Run a few weeks ago being the highlight. Kohles brings similar upside at TPC Twin Cities and is an elite play at only $7,300.

DraftKings $6,000 Range

Zac Blair ($6,900)

Blair has quietly been playing impressive golf. In his last 3 starts at the PGA TOUR level, the veteran has finished T32 at the U.S. Open, T9 at the John Deere Classic, and T8 at the ISCO Championship. Blair gained strokes on approach and with his putter at all these tournaments, and he ranks 12th in SG:APP when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds. To combine with his excellent form, Blair has made 2 of 3 cuts at TPC Twin Cities, including a T13 in 2023.

Tom Hoge ($6,900)

Hoge has made 4 of 7 cuts at TPC Twin Cities, 3 of which have been top-25 finishes, and he has been reliable as of late, missing only 1 cut in his last 12 starts. Hoge last finished T10 at the ISCO Championship, and he ranked 9th in SG:APP for the event. Hoge also gained strokes on the greens, and he ranks 12th in proximity to the hole on 175-200-yard approach shots this season, which bodes very well for TPC Twin Cities.

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Pictured: Kurt Kitayama
Photo credit: Imagn