Friday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Hornets have been one of the feel-good stories of the NBA this season, with a number of young players emerging as key pieces. However, LaMelo Ball showed that it was still “his team” in their first game in the Play-In Tournament. He led the squad with 30 points and a 38.6% usage rate, and he added 10 assists and five rebounds.
The bigger development is that Ball played just shy of 40 minutes in the overtime win. His minutes were capped at times this season, but he logged the second-most minutes on the team on Tuesday. Ball has averaged an elite 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do serious damage with that much playing time.
Ball leads the position in both median and ceiling projection, while his $9,000 salary comes with a 97% Bargain Rating. He’s a reasonable pay-up option on a slate that’s a bit light on star power.
Value
The Magic’s downward spiral continued on Wednesday, with the team losing by 12 to the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. Now, they’re 3.5-point home underdogs against the Hornets in a win-or-go-home situation. That would’ve been nearly unfathomable for the team at the start of the year.
One of the few positives for the Magic this season has been the emergence of Anthony Black as a legitimate rotation player. He averaged 15.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game during the regular season, all of which represented new career bests.
Black has played limited minutes since returning from an injury just a few weeks ago, but he got up to 22.2 minutes in the loss to the 76ers. He finished with 25.0 DraftKings points in that contest, which was more than enough to pay off his minimal salary. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury, and he could see another uptick in playing time in a must-win matchup.
Black is ultimately projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which could be conservative. However, he still ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Brandin Podziemski played more than 40 minutes in the Warriors’ first-round win over the Clippers in the Play-In Tournament. He responded with 31.75 DraftKings points in that contest, and Podziemski has the potential for even more on Friday. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he was less productive than usual on a per-minute basis.
Steph Curry might not be quite the same force that he was in his prime, but he’s still pretty damn good. He racked up 35 points in the win over the Clippers, and he finished with 46.25 DraftKings points. His production in the peripheral categories has been down this year, but he’s still capable of putting up a big number.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Phoenix Suns, who are listed as 3.5-point favorites over the Warriors. That makes Devin Booker an interesting stud option.
Booker is coming off a subpar showing in his first Play-In Tournament contest. He finished with just 30.25 DraftKings points across 37.6 minutes, well below his average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Booker was just 7-17 from the field and 8-13 from the free throw line in that contest, and he has the potential to be better in both areas on Friday.
Before his last outing, Booker had scored at least 42.75 DraftKings points in six of his previous seven games. He should be able to get back to that level against the Warriors. He ranks first at shooting guard in ceiling projection, and he’s fourth in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Kon Knueppel has had a historic rookie season. He led all players with 273 made 3-pointers, shattering the previous record for a first-year player (206). He shot 42.5% from 3-point range on nearly eight attempts per game, and he should garner plenty of respect in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Unfortunately, Knueppel ended the year on a bit of a downswing. That continued in the first round of the Play-In Tournament, with Knueppel shooting just 2-12 from the field and 0-6 from 3-point range. He finished with a massively disappointing 13.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes of action.
His recent swoon has caused his salary to dip to just $5,800, and Knueppel has the potential to be an elite value at that figure. He’s had a comparable salary in just 12 previous games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.83 in that split (per the Trends tool). That’s in line with Knueppel’s projection for Friday, and he leads all shooting guards in projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
It was Jalen Green who served as the Suns’ top offensive option in their first game of the Play-In Tournament. He finished with a massive 42.8% usage rate, which he parlayed into 35 points and 44.75 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect him to get back to that level on Friday, but Green has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That gives him a solid chance to return value at $7,200, and he trails only Knueppel in projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Coby White has been a huge part of the Hornets’ success since being acquired from the Bulls before the trade deadline. He hit the biggest shot of the game against the Heat, and he ultimately poured in 35.75 DraftKings points in 25.6 minutes. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Friday’s shooting guards. Expect him to be productive when he’s on the floor, even if it’s only for 20-25 minutes.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Brandon Miller also had an excellent game for the Hornets in their win over the Heat. His volume was a bit down – he had just a 21.1% usage rate – but he made up for it with his efficiency. He was 9-17 from the field and 5-10 from 3-point range, and he added five rebounds, five assists, and two steals.
Hopefully, Miller’s volume will be a bit increased vs. the Magic. His usage rate was at 28.1% for the year, so he has plenty of room for growth. He leads all small forwards in ceiling projection, albeit at a weak position.
Value
Gui Santos continued his excellent season with a strong showing vs. the Clippers. He finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists in just under 32 minutes, resulting in 35.5 DraftKings points. That doesn’t stand out as a huge outlier. Santos has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should continue to produce solid results with consistent playing time. He’s projected for another 32 minutes on Friday, making him an outstanding value at $5,000.
Fast Break
Franz Wagner did not have the game that some were hoping for on Wednesday. He did get up to about 30 minutes of playing time, but he was basically invisible on the floor. He finished with just a 17.9% usage rate, and he had just 21.5 DraftKings points. Still, we know what Wagner is capable of. He’s an excellent offensive player, averaging 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game last season. His usage rate was north of 30% in his final regular-season contest, so perhaps he’ll get back on track on Friday. He’s projected for roughly 15% ownership on this slate, but his optimal lineup rate is nearly double that in Sim Labs.
De’Anthony Melton saw less playing time than anticipated on Wednesday, but he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus. There’s a chance he’s asked to do a bit more on Friday. Kristaps Porzingis is currently listed as questionable, and if he’s unable to go, Melton could pick up a few additional minutes. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 26 minutes at just $4,500.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Like Wagner, Paolo Banchero was a big disappointment in the team’s first Play-In Tournament contest. He finished with nearly as many turnovers (six) as made baskets (seven), and he scored just 29.25 DraftKings points in more than 36 minutes. It’s been a rough year for Banchero overall, who hasn’t shown a ton of progression since entering the league.
The good news is that Banchero is capable of much more. He had a triple-double in the team’s final regular-season contest, and he averaged just under 30 points per game in their first-round series last year. Banchero’s usage rate checked in at 37.6% on Wednesday, so he has the potential for a much bigger performance on Friday. He leads the PF position in ceiling projection by a pretty comfortable margin.
Value
Draymond Green had a prototypical Draymond performance on Wednesday. He finished with seven points, six rebounds, nine assists, and four steals, resulting in 35.0 DraftKings points. The only thing missing was a technical foul.
Green doesn’t have the same upside that he had in his prime, but he’s still a solid bet to return value at just $5,900. He’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month. He could pick up a few additional minutes if Porzingis is unexpectedly ruled out, so make sure to monitor the injury report for updates.
Fast Break
Miles Bridges is often the forgotten man in Charlotte, but he’s still an excellent scorer in his own right. He was arguably the team’s best player on Tuesday, finishing with 52.75 DraftKings points across 43.5 minutes. He had the most playing time on the squad, and he’s projected for another heavy workload on Friday. Bridges is likely due for some regression as a shooter, but he can afford some regression at $6,300.
Dillon Brooks helped change the culture in Phoenix, just like he did previously in Memphis and Houston. Say what you want about him, but the guy makes his teams better. He logged more than 36.5 minutes on Tuesday and finished with 40.25 DraftKings points. He’s another solid midrange target, and he would get a boost if Grayson Allen is forced to sit out once again. He’s officially listed as questionable, and Brooks has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with Allen off the floor this season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As long as Porzingis is able to go, he stands out as the top option at a weak center position. Porzingis was able to give the Warriors 27.6 minutes in their first Play-In Tournament contest, and he responded with 20 points, five rebounds, five assists, one steal, and two blocks. That was good for 40.75 DraftKings points.
The production has never been the issue with Porzingis. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute when he’s managed to take the floor over the past month, but his availability is often in doubt. It’s the big reason why the Warriors were able to get Porzingis at the deadline from the disgruntled Hawks. He ultimately ranks first at the position in both median and ceiling projections, while he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
The Suns are another team with a big injury to monitor at center. Mark Williams is listed as questionable, and his absence would open the door for more playing time for Oso Ighodaro.
Ighodaro finished with just 14.25 DraftKings points in 23.3 minutes on Wednesday, but that stands out as a clear outlier. Ighodaro is far from an elite per-minute producer, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Before his last outing, Ighodaro had more than 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, despite playing fewer minutes in both contests.
Ighodaro could approach 30 minutes if Williams is unable to go on Friday, but he still has a chance to return value even if he’s active. He trails only Porzingis and Green in projected Plus/Minus at center.
Fast Break
If Williams is able to go for Phoenix, he would have some tournament appeal at $4,900. He shouldn’t garner a ton of ownership, and he’s one of the better per-minute producers among Friday’s centers. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 26.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games.
Moussa Diabate saw more than 36 minutes in his last contest, and he’s projected for another 30 minutes on Friday. That should be enough for him to return value at $5,300. Diabate has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Pictured: LaMelo Ball
Photo Credit: Imagn
