The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Kemba Walker is averaging a +4.69 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. With the Hornets’ playoff hopes still hanging in the balance, Kemba should be good for another monster performance tonight in Cleveland.
Our data at Bet Labs shows that favorites tend to be undervalued at this time of year, and if Charlotte covers the 8-point spread, Kemba will undoubtably be the primary reason.
Terry Rozier and Bradley Wanamaker have the top two Projected Plus/Minuses among point guards for a Celtics squad playing with a rotation so short you could film a sequel to the film “Hoosiers.” Rozier is expected to start and play 30-plus minutes against Washington, giving him a projected ceiling north of 50 in our NBA Player Models, while Wanamaker’s 22.5 projected minutes and negligible salary put him on the map as a punt play.
Over the Lakers’ past five games, Alex Caruso is averaging 19.4 points, 7.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals in 35.6 minutes per game, exceeding salary-based expectations by 17.16 DraftKings points per game over that span. That trend should continue against Portland, as we have him projected to log more minutes than any other player on the slate (39.5).
Welcome to the last two days of the NBA season, when Delon Wright is a borderline stud.
Wright is averaging a +13.04 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. In games without Mike Conley (ankle, out) since the All-Star break, Wright has gone full poor-man’s Westbrook, averaging 17.0 points, 9.0 assists and 7.6 rebounds a game (per our NBA On/Off tool).
Jaylen Brown projects for the most minutes (33.9) and highest usage rate (25.96%) for Celtics Lite tonight, giving him a top-three Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Lakers coach Luke Walton has left Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the floor for 40-plus minutes in each of the team’s past two games, and it’s translated into DraftKings Plus/Minuses of +17.53 and +22.53. Starting Mar. 12, KCP’s DraftKings Plus/Minuses in games that he has played over 30 minutes are +25.14, +33.63, -1.33, +11.34, +20.66, +18.96, +13.49, +17.53 and +22.53.
With the Thunder still playing for seeding, Paul George has the highest floor, median and ceiling projection of all small forwards on the slate. PG13 is averaging 58.23 DraftKings points and a +8.77 Plus/Minus against the Rockets this season, clearing 50 fantasy points in all three prior matchups.
Mario Hezonja has essentially been running point for the Knicks lately and is averaging 23.7 points, 10.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists in 35.4 minutes a game over his past three. Only George is projected for a higher floor, median or ceiling at the position tonight, and Hezonja’s +16.62 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the highest of any player on the slate.
Mikal Bridges has played more than 42 minutes in each of the past two games and tied a career-high with 13 field-goal attempts in his last game. Despite the spike in playing time, the rookie wing out of Villanova is expected to be owned in just 2-4% of DraftKings lineups.
In four games in April, Josh Jackson is averaging 19.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks in 36.9 minutes per game — good for a +14.9 average DraftKings Plus/Minus over that span. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2017 draft has one of the highest ceiling projections on the slate for the Suns’ season finale in Dallas.
Despite attempting only 17 combined field goals over his past three games, undrafted rookie Jemerrio Jones is averaging 27.42 DraftKings points and a +15.1 Plus/Minus in 30 minutes during that span. He’s done it by chipping in 11.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks, and is a good bet to stuff the stat sheet again as he makes his second straight start.
Though he technically will start at small forward for the Lakers, Jones is eligible only at power forward on FanDuel and at shooting guard on DraftKings, but he’s a top-two value at his position on each site regardless.
Luke Kornet is averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is projected to play 35 minutes tonight for the shorthanded Knicks, making him a top-four value on both sites.
Daniel Theis and Guerschon Yabusele are also among the top-rated players at the position in the Phan Model. Both are looking at minutes in the mid-20s tonight in Boston’s abbreviated rotation.
Andre Drummond has eclipsed 52 DraftKings points five times in his last six games. With Blake Griffin (knee, questionable) banged up and Detroit clinging to the 8-seed, Drummond is a good bet to put up big numbers again at home against Memphis.
The NBA’s leading rebounder has the highest projected ceiling on the slate at the position.
Mike Muscala is averaging a +11.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past three games and played more than 38 minutes on Sunday in the Lakers’ last game. We have him projected to be on the hardwood for 34 minutes tonight, making him a top-four value at the position on both sites.
Celtics rookie Robert Williams hasn’t played much, but he could set a new career-high in minutes as one of Boston’s only available bigs. At a projection of 26.7 minutes, Williams ranks as one of the top five values on the slate among all positions.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: New York Knicks forward Mario Hezonja (8)
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports