The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Mother’s Day! Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Damian Lillard unsurprisingly showed up in a must-win Game 6 at home, scoring 32 points while shooting 6-of-13 from 3-point range. That said, he didn’t provide much in terms of peripheral statistics, resulting in just 45.75 DraftKings points.
The Nuggets have done a good job of limiting him for most of the series, and his per-minute production has decreased to just 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over his past five games. He still offers the highest ceiling at the PG position, but he’s far from a lock at his current price tag.
Kyle Lowry is priced like a value at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He hasn’t displayed much upside during this series, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He’s currently projected for 41.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Jamal Murray is the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been a phenomenal value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.25 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in each of his past four games.
Seth Curry was a major disappointment in his last game, scoring just three DraftKings points in just 20.5 minutes. Still, the playing time is encouraging. He’s played at least 20.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and has cracked 26.4 minutes in two of them. He’s priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value.
The 76ers are six-point underdogs on the road in Game 7, and their implied team total of 101.5 is the lowest mark on the slate. Still, expect Jimmy Butler to show up and play well in this contest. He’s increased his production during the postseason, scoring at least 42.25 DraftKings points in each of his past five games.
He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame and has the potential to play well over 40 minutes in a do-or-die Game 7. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Gary Harris has been a huge part of the Nuggets’ rotation during this series due to his defensive ability vs. Lillard and C.J. McCollum. He’s coming off 40.2 minutes in his last contest and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games vs. the Blazers. His price has steadily risen over that time frame, but he still represents a nice value at $5,200 on DraftKings.
McCollum is the only SG on today’s slate that can match Butler’s upside. He hasn’t been as productive as Butler on a per-minute basis, but he can make up for it through sheer volume. He’s coming off 42.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s projected for a position-high 42.0 minutes today. He’s a strong pivot from Butler on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary makes him $2,300 cheaper.
Danny Green needs to score to provide fantasy value, and he’s coming off a brutal shooting contest in his last game. That makes him a prime bounceback candidate on today’s slate. He’s a particularly nice option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 68%.
Here’s what I said about Leonard prior to Game 6:
There is no reason why you should not be rostering Kawhi Leonard in 100% of your lineups at this point. The 76ers have had absolutely no answer for him on the offensive end, as he’s shooting a ridiculous 59.0% from the field, 40.6% from 3-point range and 83.7% from the free throw line. He’s also posted an average usage rate of 33.3%, so he’s managed to maintain elite efficiency despite commanding a large workload. Just lock him in and say thank you to anyone who chooses to fade him.
53.0 DraftKings points later, nothing has really changed for Game 7. He owns the highest ceiling and median projections in our NBA Models, making him an elite target in all formats.
This has been a solid postseason for Rodney Hood truthers. He’s always had the ability to score the ball, but he’s struggled to produce consistently through his first five NBA seasons.
That’s all changed vs. the Nuggets. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, including scoring 29.8 FanDuel points in his last contest. He also played 31.6 minutes in that game, which gives him an optimistic outlook for Game 7. He remains very affordable at $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Tobias Harris hasn’t provided a ton of upside during the postseason, but he’s been an extremely reliable option. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month on DraftKings, yet his salary has decreased to $6,200 for today’s contest. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 96%.
J.J. Redick has really struggled during this series vs. the Raptors, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has dropped to just $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He should garner minimal ownership and has big upside at his reduced price tag.
Paul Millsap has been fantastic vs. the Blazers this series. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in all six contests and has averaged 39.72 FanDuel points per game. His salary has risen considerably over that time frame, but he still has appeal for Game 7. He’s one of the best values of the day at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Zach Collins is another member of the Blazers who has seen a bump in value during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s coming off one of his best games of the season his Game 6. He played 28.7 minutes and responded with 33.0 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him considerable upside at $4,100.
Pascal Siakam leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in his past two games.
His playing time has been slightly limited recently due to a calf injury, but he has the potential to see a few extra minutes in Game 7. He’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Serge Ibaka has seen a few additional minutes in his past two games given the injury to Siakam, but he hasn’t been able to take advantage. Still, he’s posted a solid usage rate of at least 21.2% in those contests, but he’s struggled to shoot the ball from the field. He has decent upside at $3,900 on DraftKings if his shot starts falling today.
Nikola Jokic has been one of the breakout stars during the playoffs. Hardcore NBA fans have known for a while just how talented Jokic is, but now casual fans are starting to catch on as well.
He’s averaged 24.8 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.9 assists during the postseason while shooting 51.5% from the field, 40.0% from 3-point range, and 85.9% from the free throw line. That combination of statistical production and efficiency is truly remarkable, and he may be the only big man in the history of the NBA capable of it.
He should continue to thrive in his matchup vs. the Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.58 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in five of his first six games of this series and has the potential for another triple-double on today’s slate. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Jokic is the clear top choice at the position on FanDuel, but the decision isn’t as easy on DraftKings. Joel Embiid is priced at just $8,700, making him a full $1,500 cheaper than the Joker. Embiid has also been more effective than Jokic on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.63 DraftKings points per minute.
His playing time has been a bit limited recently, but he’s projected for 38.1 minutes in a crucial Game 7. That makes him a really appealing pivot since he’ll likely command lower ownership.
Of course, you can always pair both options together on DraftKings, but it will be tough to jam both studs and Leonard into the same lineup.
Enes Kanter is tough to peg today. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, and he’s started to cede minutes to guys like Collins and Hood. Still, he should see around 30 minutes and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has big upside at just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Marc Gasol is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s scored at least 23.9 FanDuel points in each of his past five games.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Raptors SF Kawhi Leonard (2)
Credit: Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports.