The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker was nothing short of phenomenal on opening night, pouring in 55.5 DraftKings points against the Milwaukee Bucks. He appears to be in a great spot today vs. the Orlando Magic, who are one of the best matchups on the board for point guard. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.98 on DraftKings, and the Hornets implied team total of 109.5 points is the sixth-highest mark on the slate.
Values
Elfrid Payton put up a “lazy” triple-double in his first game for the New Orleans Pelicans, recording exactly 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute last season, and he played just under 37 minutes on opening night. He’ll have a shot at a big fantasy season if he continues to play that much.
He’s in a great spot today against the Sacramento Kings, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.90 on DraftKings. The Pelicans implied team total of 121.5 points is also the top mark of the day by a significant margin. He looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings at just $5,800 because of his Bargain Rating of 99%.
De’Aaron Fox is also in play on the other side of the same matchup. He recorded 42.3 FanDuel points in his first game of the season, and the fact that he did it against the Utah Jazz is impressive. He played 37.5 minutes in that contest, which is more than he played in all but two games last season.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5).
This is a great matchup for Fox as long as the game doesn’t turn into a blowout. The Pelicans played at the fastest pace in the league last season, so this is a big time pace-up spot for the Kings. Last season, Fox averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.64 on FanDuel in comparable pace-up situations (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Stephen Curry had everything working on opening night against the Thunder, recording 32 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds. He has a brutal matchup vs. the Utah Jazz, but that could make him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools: He’s projected for just 5% to 8% ownership and has the ability to go off against anyone.
Trae Young was a bit disappointing in his NBA debut against the New York Knicks, but his salary has decreased by $900 on DraftKings for today’s contest vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. It’s hard not to like him at that price tag despite the tough matchup, and he leads all point guards with 11 Pro Trends.
Frank Ntilikina played 33.5 minutes in the Knicks’ first game of the season, which makes him an interesting target at just $4,700 on DraftKings. He averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute last season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.76 vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jimmy Butler was way too cheap for his first game of the season at $6,700 on DraftKings, so DK responded by jacking his price up to $8,100 for tonight’s contest vs. the Cavs.
That said, he still looks like a value: The Cavs hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing wings last season, giving Butler an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.78. His usage rate of 34.9% in his first game was also significantly higher than his average of 24.9% last season, so there’s a good chance he can improve upon his average of 1.11 fantasy points per minute in 2017-18.
Jrue Holiday was one of the only disappointments for the Pelicans, who scored 131 points against the Houston Rockets in their season opener. That said, there is still reason for optimism with Holiday as the season progresses.
He saw a usage bump of +3.0% with DeMarcus Cousins off the floor last season, resulting in an average of 1.16 fantasy points per minute. His $7,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, so this could be an excellent opportunity to buy-low on him vs. the Orlando Magic.
Value
The Kings are going to be without Bogdan Bogdanovic for the first few games of the season, and Buddy Hield appears to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He played just under 32 minutes in their first game of the season against the Jazz, and he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings if he’s going to keep playing that much. He averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute last season, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Picture
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield (24) shoots against the Golden State Warriors during the second quarter at KeyArena.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore’s role tends to fluctuate for the Hawks, but he’s typically pretty productive when he’s on the floor. He averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute last season, and he did play over 30 minutes on opening night.
The Hornets were able to erase a 20-point deficit against the Bucks in their first game of the season, and Malik Monk was a big reason why. He scored 18 points and played 33.5 minutes, so he seems underpriced at just $4,700 on DraftKings considering his matchup vs. the Magic.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t exactly dominate the fantasy world in his first game of the season, but there’s still a lot to like with him. He posted a usage rate of 41.2% to start the season, but was done in by eight turnovers and a subpar field-goal percentage.
Antetokounmpo also recorded just one block and zero steals, which was significantly lower than his combined average of 2.83 from last season. No one on the planet can match his production in the peripheral categories — he racked up 18 rebounds and eight assists on opening night — so he could be in line for a monster game if he sees some regression with his shooting numbers in today’s contest.
Russell Westbrook remains doubtful for the Oklahoma City Thunder, which means Paul George will likely be looking at another large workload on today’s slate. He posted a usage rate of 33.4% on opening night and averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with Westbrook off the floor last season. He has an awesome matchup vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +15.68 on DraftKings.
Value
DeAndre Bembry is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He played more than 23 minutes in the Hawks’ first game of the season and averaged 0.74 FanDuel points per minute last season. He looks like an ideal candidate for those looking to punt a spot given the new scoring changes on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert seems poised to take a step forward this season. He played 34 minutes on opening night, and his usage rate of 31.9% was higher than it was in all but two games last year. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Knicks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.08.
Taurean Prince averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute on opening night and looks like a nice value on DraftKings: His $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Power Forward
Stud
If opening night is any indication, Anthony Davis is going to rewrite the fantasy record books this season. He averaged a ridiculous 1.97 fantasy points per minute on opening night, finishing with 32 points, 16 rebounds, eight assists, three steals and three blocks. He’s already priced up to $13,300 on FanDuel, which is the highest price tag of his career.
It’s hard not to like him today vs. the Sacramento Kings, who were demolished by big men last season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +14.43 on DraftKings, where his $11,600 comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) handles the ball while Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) defends.
Value
Ersan Ilyasova looks like he’s going to be a nice addition for the Bucks this season. He played 29 minutes on opening night and averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute last season. He seems underpriced across the industry if he’s going to continue to play that much and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.44 vs. the Indiana Pacers.
Fast Break
Kevin Love posted a Plus/Minus of -8.11 on FanDuel in his first game of the season, but there were still a lot of encouraging signs. He was much more involved in the offense that in previous years with LeBron, posting a usage rate of 32.4%. He shot just 5-of-18 from the field, so he has nice upside if he can see some positive regression in that department.
The Pelicans’ big man rotation is going to be interesting this season with Davis, Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic, but Mirotic’s playing time seems pretty safe. He will likely spend some time at small forward in addition to power forward this season, since it’s definitely in the Pelicans’ best interest to keep him on the floor as much as possible. He averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute last season and was 6-of-8 from 3-point range on opening night.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of high-priced centers on today’s slate, but Willie Cauley-Stein might be the most appealing. The Kings let him play 38.5 minutes on opening night, and he rewarded fantasy owners with 43.75 DraftKings points. He’s always been a strong per-minute producer — he averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute last season — so his production doesn’t seem fluky given the increased playing time. He’s a really strong value at just $6,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
It’s hard to feel comfortable playing a guy who is almost guaranteed to play less than 20 minutes, but Boban Marjanovic isn’t most guys. He averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute last season, and the Clippers seem committed to getting him minutes in every game this season. He scored 27 DraftKings points in just under 18 minutes on opening night and could be in line for a similar workload today vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s a nice value across the industry.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic will likely lose some playing time this season to Mo Bamba, but he still figures to play enough to have value early in the season. He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Charlotte Hornets, who figure to be one of the most vulnerable teams in the interior after losing Dwight Howard in the offseason.
Jarrett Allen played over 30 minutes on opening night, and that kind of playing time could make him a major fantasy asset this season. Just ask Blake Griffin what he’s capable of:
Jarrett Allen erases Blake Griffin from Planet Earth for the second time in 9 days. pic.twitter.com/QprpiVP4Wo
— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) October 17, 2018
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Jrue Holiday
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
