Sunday features Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder have managed to win two straight after dropping Game 1, and they’ll have a chance to seize full control of the series Sunday. However, the Spurs are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 219.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
This series has lived up to the massive expectations fans had heading into it. This is arguably the highest-level basketball we’ve seen between two teams since the peak of the Warriors’ dynasty.
The fact that the Spurs have been this good this early is scary. Victor Wembanyama is still just 22 years old, and he has officially taken over as the best player in the league. He’s capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor as few have ever done before.
Wembanyama is coming off a quiet performance in Game 3. The Thunder limited him to just 26 points on 8-for-15 shooting, and he added just four rebounds, three assists, one steal, and two blocks. The result was a pedestrian 41.5 DraftKings points.
Expect a much stronger performance from Wembanyama on Sunday. He played just under 40 minutes in Game 3, and he’s one of the best per-minute performers in all of fantasy. He averaged less than 30 minutes per game during the regular season, so Wembanyama’s upside during the playoffs is significantly higher. We saw that in Game 1, when Wemby racked up 84.0 DraftKings points in the double-overtime win. Overall, Wembanyama has played at least 34 minutes in six games this season, and he’s had at least 62.26 DraftKings points in five of them.
Wembanyama has ultimately been in the optimal lineup in all three games in this series, including as the Captain in Game 2. He has the top median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models, as well as the top projected Plus/Minus.
While Wembanyama got the edge in Game 1, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has bounced back with two fantastic performances in Games 2 and 3. He’s had at least 50.0 DraftKings points in all three games in this series, and like Wembanyama, he has been in the optimal lineup for all three contests. He was a utility in Games 1 and 2, while he was the optimal Captain in Game 3.
SGA did that despite not having his best scoring stuff Friday. He was just 6-for-17 from the field, but he made up for it with 12 assists. Of course, he also got to the free-throw line for 12 attempts, and he knocked down all of them.
Gilgeous-Alexander could be asked to do even more Sunday. The Thunder have already ruled out Ajay Mitchell, while Jalen Williams is questionable after sitting out Game 3. He’s seen a roughly +1.0% usage bump with both players off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in that split. While that’s not quite Wembanyama territory, it does help close the gap between the two players.
Ultimately, using both of these guys has been the correct decision for most of this series, and it’s hard to imagine things changing for Game 3. That strategy will come with high ownership, but both guys are as safe as it gets for fantasy purposes.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Spurs got a bit healthier last game, with De’Aaron Fox suiting up for the first time this series. Dylan Harper was also able to play through a questionable designation, so the team was essentially at full strength.
As a result, Stephon Castle didn’t have to do quite as much on offense. His usage rate dipped to just 19.2% in Game 3, while he handed out a series-low seven assists. The good news is that his turnovers also dropped dramatically, with just one in Game 3 after 20 in the first two games combined.
Castle has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three games vs. OKC, and he has been remarkably consistent throughout the postseason. He’s only failed to return value in two games, and one of them was a game where he played just 26.3 minutes. As long as this game stays competitive, Castle is a good bet to return value once again.
The same cannot be said for Chet Holmgren. Holmgren has struggled to stay on the floor in this series, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all three games. He was more effective on offense in Game 3 with 14 points on 5-for-7 shooting, but he still finished with just 19.75 DraftKings points in 28.0 minutes. He’s yet to eclipse 24.5 DraftKings points in this matchup, and he also struggled mightily against the Spurs in the regular season. Holmgren is projected for just 30 minutes in Game 4, and his price hasn’t come down to a point where he’s particularly exciting.
Williams is the big X-factor for the Thunder on Sunday. He was the team’s second-best player in their championship run last season, and he was a huge factor in Game 1. He posted a 35.7% usage rate, and he finished with 42.75 DraftKings points in 37.3 minutes. That was his first game in nearly two weeks.
Williams re-aggravated his hamstring injury in Game 2 and exited after just 7.3 minutes. With Mitchell now out, his return would be a welcome addition for the Thunder’s offense. However, how much he’d actually be able to do remains to be seen. We currently have him projected for 27 minutes, which is probably not enough to put him on the radar for fantasy purposes.
Fox is clearly playing at less than 100% at the moment, but he was solid in his return to the lineup on Friday. He logged just over 30 minutes of court time, and he finished with 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and one steal. He ultimately racked up 33.25 DraftKings points, resulting in a positive Plus/Minus at $7,800.
Fox is slightly cheaper for Game 4, and it’s possible that he could see a few extra minutes as well. He ranks fifth on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him a solid choice in the mid-range.
Unfortunately, Harper did not look nearly as good as Fox did Friday. He was limited to just 17.3 minutes, and he finished with just 12.25 DraftKings points.
With Fox now back in the rotation, Harper is going to revert to a reserve role. He’s been able to make an impact off the bench throughout the playoffs, but his price tag has come up significantly. He’s also clearly banged up at the moment, even though he’s been removed from the injury report.
Alex Caruso continues to cement his status as one of the best role players in basketball. He did not shoot the ball well during the regular season, knocking down just 29.3% of his 3-point attempts. That said, you’d never know it by watching this series. He’s 14-for-23 from 3-point range through the first three games to go along with everything he provides on the defensive end. If Caruso is going to continue to shoot the ball at that level, the Thunder are going to be nearly impossible to beat.
Caruso has been excellent for DFS players in this series as well. He was the optimal Captain in Game 1, and he’s followed that up with a positive Plus/Minus in Games 2 and 3. Unfortunately, Caruso has seen his price tag rise since the start of this series, so he carries a bit more risk for Game 4. He’s played less than 25 minutes in the past two contests, and that’s a lot less appealing at $6,200.
Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie have been the Spurs’ wing players in this series, and both guys have delivered solid value throughout. Vassell was in the optimal lineup in Game 3, finishing with 41.25 DraftKings points, while Champagnie also delivered a positive Plus/Minus.
Vassell clearly has more offensive upside of the two, but that comes with a higher price tag. He’s up to $7,000 after his Game 3 performance, while Champagnie is sitting at $5,600. That gives him the latter the edge in our projections. He has comparable median and ceiling marks, while his projected Plus/Minus is significantly stronger.
With the Thunder a bit banged up in the backcourt, Cason Wallace could take on a larger role in Game 4. He’s already been a strong value in this series, racking up at least 30.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s knocked down at least two 3-pointers in all three games while providing his usual impact on defense.
Wallace has gotten a bit more expensive for Game 4, but he’s also projected for less than 10% ownership. That feels too low given how well he’s played and the amount of minutes potentially up for grabs in OKC.
Isaiah Hartenstein rounds out this price range. He looked unplayable in this series in Game 1, but he’s bounced back with two solid showings in Games 2 and 3. He had 30.75 DraftKings points on Wednesday before slipping to 20.0 on Friday.
Hartenstein’s minutes are going to have a big impact on his value. He slipped to just 21.2 minutes in Game 3, but that was due to foul trouble and a huge game from Jaylin Williams. There’s a chance he plays a bit more Sunday, and in that scenario, he could be one of the stronger values of the day.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Jared McCain ($4,400): McCain was undoubtedly the star for the Thunder in Game 3. He racked up a massive 24 points off the bench, and he finished with 26.7 minutes. He took 21 shots when on the floor, good for a 38.9% usage rate, and he was the Thunder’s offensive focal point with all the defensive attention being given to SGA. The scary part is that McCain could have been even better; he shot just 2-for-10 from 3-point range. If Williams is out once again, expect another heavy dosage of McCain off the bench.
- Jaylin Williams ($4,000): Williams was also fantastic for the Thunder on Friday. He played just under 22 minutes, and he responded with 32.25 DraftKings points. That was more than enough to make the optimal lineup at just $1,800. Williams is significantly more expensive for Game 4, but he has historically been an outstanding per-minute producer. If Hartenstein gets in foul trouble again, or the Thunder just prefer Williams on the floor, he has the potential for another strong showing.
- Keldon Johnson ($3,600): The reigning Sixth Man of the Year has struggled to get going in the playoffs. He was just 1-for-5 from the field in Game 3, and his playing time has started to slip as a result. He finished with just 11.7 minutes in that contest, and unless he finds his jump shot, he’s not going to be a huge factor moving forward. Still, he has been a big part of the Spurs’ rotation all season, so there’s some buy-low potential here.
- Lu Dort ($2,800): Dort has not been as big of a factor for the Thunder this year as he was last season. However, he did get up to 23.2 minutes sans Williams in Game 3. Dort responded with just 10.25 DraftKings points, but the opportunity to make an impact was there. That makes him intriguing if Williams is out once again.
- Luke Kornet ($2,400): The Spurs have been killed in the Kornet minutes in this series, especially when Wembanyama is not playing alongside him. He’s also yet to crack double-digit fantasy points in this series, so it’s possible that the team looks in a different direction Sunday.
- Carter Bryant ($2,000): Bryant has come on for the Spurs over the second half of the season, but he looks a bit overmatched in this series. That said, he should see around 10 minutes once again Sunday.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,600): With Mitchell out and Williams questionable, Joe could get back into the rotation for Game 4. He’s a perimeter sharpshooter, and he knocked down his only 3-point attempt in Game 3. If he can see a few additional minutes, he has the potential to make an impact.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,000): With the Spurs back at full strength, there doesn’t appear to be a place for Barnes. He saw just three minutes in Game 3, and he failed to record a single statistic.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins is another potential option for the Thunder if Williams is ruled out. He hasn’t been a part of the rotation so far, but he’s another gifted scorer who would play for the other 29 teams in the league. The Thunder are just crazy deep.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,000): Add Williams to the mix of potential options for OKC. He only got in for garbage time in Game 3, but he had 6.75 DraftKings points in just 1.5 minutes. He was a factor for the Thunder in the playoffs last season, so it’s not unthinkable that they dust him off in Game 4.
Pictured: Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: Daniel Dunn, Imagn
