The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Phoenix Suns – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Coming off his second triple-double in his last four games, Luka Doncic has the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Doncic’s salary is expensive across the industry, but deserving given his play this season. He currently has the second-highest points per game and usage rate at 35.3%. Since the start of December, Doncic has displayed his incredibly high ceiling. During that time, he is averaging 36 points, 11.3 assists, and 9.5 rebounds per game.
The Mavericks are slight underdogs in the nightcap against the Suns and this high-paced game has a 237.5-point total, with the Mavericks implied for 116.5 points. After a disappointing first Christmas Day game in 2020, Doncic bounced back last year with a near triple-double against the Lakers with 32 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and 60.25 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey at Miami Heat – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Joel Embiid will miss this Christmas Day game due to an ankle injury, making Tyrese Maxey a high-priority play at $8,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Embiid off the floor this season, Maxey has a team-high +8.09% usage rate and a +6.17 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Maxey has been a little inconsistent shooting the ball but does possess a ceiling that is worth targeting, especially in this spot without Embiid. He is one of five players this season with a game scoring 50 or more points.
Averaging a career-high 26.4 points per game, Maxey will take on an even bigger scoring role for the 76ers tonight. He has shot the ball great lately while putting together back-to-back games of 33+ points and 50+% shooting from the field. This matchup against the Heat is the least appealing spot, but Maxey’s extra usage rate and projected production are standing out.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Dallas Mavericks – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
The Suns have lost six of their last eight games and Devin Booker has failed to pay off his salary in a majority of those contests. Despite averaging 27.5 points and 7.9 assists per game, Booker has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games. However, with Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined, Booker has a great chance to tap into his ceiling. Projected for 20+% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, Booker is a strong pay-up option across the industry.
The Mavericks have been an exploitable matchup all season long with their 23rd-ranked defense. They continue to get dominated on the glass with their small interior frontcourt. The Mavericks rank 28th in rebounding percentage, allowing 46.3 rebounds per game.
That is great news for Booker, who is averaging a career-high in both rebounds and assists per game.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton at Miami Heat – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Right behind Tyrese Maxey in usage rate and leading the 76ers in DraftKings Plus/Minus without Joel Embiid on the floor is shooting guard De’Anthony Melton. Another inconsistent fantasy producer when the 76ers are fully healthy, Melton is a completely different player without Embiid. In three games without the reigning MVP, Melton’s scoring jumps from 10.8 to 18 points and usage rate from 16.3% to 26.1% per game. Despite the difficult spot, Melton is impossible to ignore at this salary.
The 76ers are the best team to target from a value perspective even with the lowest implied total on the slate at 111.25 points. Prioritize Melton on DraftKings with his salary depleting over $1,000 in the past week. Melton has an 87% Bargain Rating and is projected for around 50% ownership. He has shown 30+ fantasy point upside even in tough matchups before.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Boston Celtics – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
LeBron James and Anthony Davis being listed as questionable may be the biggest joke on the slate. Neither player is going to miss this home game against the Celtics on Christmas Day. Priced just into the five figures, James has scored 38 and 39 points in his last two Christmas Day games, while shooting a combined 27-for-48 (56.3%) from the field. He is coming off an impressive 40-7-7 stat line against the Thunder and is worth getting exposure to at low ownership tonight.
The Celtics have one of the best defenses in the league, ranking fourth in defensive rating and third in points allowed. They are one of three teams who are allowing under 110 points per game this season. Even in a tough spot, James can thrive against the Lakers’ biggest rival. James has a positive Plus/Minus in eight consecutive games and will likely make it nine.
Top Value: Tobias Harris at Miami Heat – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Tobias Harris is coming off his best game of the season, where he recorded 33 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. Priced under $6,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Harris is going to be another elite 76ers value play. Even with his mid-range salary, Harris will be a focal point in cash games and a strong tournament option. His ownership continues to rise, given his most recent game and playing tonight without Embiid. Expect his usage rate and production to rise in this spot.
Harris has been extremely efficient this season, shooting a career-high 51.3% from the field. Opponents are surprisingly shooting 48.2% from the field and 37.6% from behind the arc, both of which are below-average defensive stats. This matchup would be even better on the perimeter if defensive stalwart Jimmy Butler were ruled out once again for the Heat.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at New York Knicks – $10,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
An easy way to get different on this five-game slate is rostering Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings and under 5% on FanDuel. The Bucks and Knicks played two days ago, with the Bucks winning by 19 points on the road. In the same matchup tonight, the Bucks are 3.5-point road favorites in Madison Square Garden. Giannis had a mediocre game by his standards, with 28 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists.
Even with Knicks starting center Mitchell Robinson out for the year, the Knicks allow the seventh-fewest points in the paint at 46.3 per game. They are also the second-best rebounding team in the league, so Giannis will have his work cut out for him again to return value. He is capable of dominating any matchup, which makes him intriguing in tournaments on this slate.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Marcus Morris Sr. will be one of the most popular value plays on the slate, but Drew Eubanks deserves consideration when looking to differentiate from the 76ers chalk. Eubanks has power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, which is a big reason why he looks so good. Eubanks is projected to play around 23 minutes and has an outside chance at a double-double in this elite spot. The Mavericks are an awful rebounding team and allow the fifth-most points in the paint per game.
In the five games that Eubanks has played 20+ minutes, he has scored double-digits in every game while shooting 69.4% from the field. Mavericks rookie Dereck Lively is in danger of missing his fifth straight game due to an injury. However, it truly doesn’t matter if it’s Lively or Dwight Powell. Eubanks without Jusuf Nurkic will feast on the weak Mavericks frontcourt.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,900 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
It seems like DraftKings wanted to appease the Christmas Day casuals with Nikola Jokic’s salary tonight. Priced at $10,900, Jokic is the lowest he has been since opening night. His cheap price tag is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating and the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Despite looking incredible in all of our tools, Jokic is still coming under 20% projected ownership. If that stands, he is easily the best play on this five-game slate, with plenty of value to fit him in tonight.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point home favorites against the Warriors, looking for their eighth win in their last nine games. In his last two years against the Warriors, Jokic is averaging nearly a triple-double with 27.9 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per game, shooting 54.5% from the field. He dominates Kevon Looney and tonight will be no different.
It’s a great spot for Jokic.
Top Value: Paul Reed at Miami Heat – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Paul Reed is the most popular play on the slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Priced under $5,000 on both sites, Reed is easy to fit into all lineup builds despite being only projected to play around 25 minutes. Reed is a stat-stuffing big man averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and minutes per game this season. The matchup against Heat starting center Bam Adebayo is brutal, but the cheap price tag negates the matchup. He is simply the best value option in our NBA Model.
Similar to De’Anthony Melton, Reed has a major boost in production without Embiid on the floor. In three games without Embiid, Reed is averaging 11 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. His playing time has doubled, and his defensive stats are staggering. It is impossible to get away from Reed on both DraftKings and FanDuel at his cheap salary despite the matchup.
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