Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic is coming off a near triple-double in the Lakers’ Game 2 victory over the Timberwolves. He finished with 31 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists, accumulating 62 DraftKings points. Doncic currently has the second-highest projected ceiling on this three-game slate but is only drawing 15% projected ownership. He is an easy way to differentiate lineups and makes for a great contrarian tournament option.
Our model also has Doncic projected for a slate-high 42 minutes and a 34% usage rate. In order for the Lakers to win back-to-back games and pull off the slight upset, Doncic will need to have a big game. Expect him to flirt with another triple-double and be the catalyst to the Lakers’ success. His $11,000 price tag is lofty, but his ceiling speaks for itself. Prioritize Doncic in tournaments to reach the top of the leaderboard.
Value
The consistency for TJ McConnell off the bench is impossible to ignore from a value standpoint. He has a positive Plus/Minus in each of the Pacers’ two playoff games and in seven of his last nine games. During that nine-game stretch, McConnell is averaging 8.6 points, 4.2 assists, and 20.2 DraftKings points per game. That may not seem like a ton of points, but he does not have to do much at his $3,700 price tag.
Even being projected to only play 16 minutes, McConnell has a respectable 22.8% projected usage rate and is one of the best pure value plays on the slate. The Pacers are 5.5-point road underdogs but are still implied for 112.75 points due to the game’s 230.5-point total. That is 25 points more than the next closest game and McConnell is a cheap way to get exposure to this playoff game at a ridiculously low salary.
Fast Break
Staying in the Pacers’ backcourt, Tyrese Haliburton is drawing the most ownership at the point guard position tonight at 45%. He struggled against the Bucks in Game 1, shooting a putrid 3-for-13 from the field. He still nearly had a triple-double, but then followed that up in Game 2 with 21 points, 12 assists, and five rebounds for 46.75 DraftKings points. Haliburton leads all guards in projected Plus/Minus and is a near lock to record another points-and-assists double-double. He is a phenomenal mid-range option.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The most popular shooting guard play for this three-game slate is Timberwolves’ star Anthony Edwards. After scoring 117 points in Game 1, the Timberwolves only mustered 85 points in Game 2. They looked content with the road split and to bring this series back to Minnesota tied. Expect a bounce-back game from the Timberwolves, who are three-point home favorites implied for the third-most points on the slate.
Post All-Star Break, the Timberwolves have the third-highest offensive rating in the league, which is led by Edwards. He is the clear-cut top-scoring option for the Timberwolves and has led them in rebounding for the first two games with seven rebounds per game. The Lakers have been a lackluster rebounding team, which boosts Edwards’ ceiling. He is right there with Haliburton in price range and projected ownership.
Value
In order for the Magic to get back into this first-round series, they will need to find a way to win Game 3. How do they do that? With exceptional role play from someone like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He has shot 3-for-14 from the field and 2-for-10 from behind the arc in their first two games. His peripherals have been solid, but Caldwell-Pope is specifically on the floor to score the ball, especially from distance.
Jalen Suggs remains out for the Magic, which has solidified Caldwell-Pope’s playing time. He has played 35 minutes in back-to-back games despite his porous shooting. Priced under $4,000, it is impossible to ignore an option getting that much playing time. He shot 44% from downtown post-All-Star Break. All he needs to do is connect on a couple long distance shots and he will easily pay off his $3,800 salary tonight.
Fast Break
Austin Reaves has not been good for the Lakers in their first two playoff games. He has back-to-back games accumulating under 30 DraftKings points, which is rare for Reaves, who averaged nearly 40 DraftKings points and a career-high 20.2 points per game during the regular season. He is still the third option on the Lakers and is due for a bounce-back performance. After his past two poor games, Reaves has seen a major decrease in his salary to $6,500, which makes him a superb mid-range option tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
LeBron James is another Lakers’ star that is being disrespected when it comes to projected ownership tonight. Drawing only 5% ownership, James still ranks sixth in projected ceiling and is tied for second in minutes at 40. The 40-year-old can still affect the game at every level. He is leading the Lakers in assists, steals, and blocks per game in the playoffs while still averaging 20 points and eight rebounds per game.
In the Lakers Game 2 victory, James recorded a near triple-double with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists for over 50 DraftKings points. That will be more than enough to pay off his $9,500 price tag again tonight. The Timberwolves may be favored, but it is difficult to bet against LeBron James-led teams. With a 27.4% projected usage rate and playing 40 minutes, James is an elite way to get contrarian on this slate.
Value
Pacers’ forward Aaron Nesmith has been consistent with splashes of ceiling performances recently when his shot is falling. In his third year with the Pacers, Nesmith has been fantastic, averaging 12 points and four rebounds per game while shooting 50.7% from the field and 43.1% from behind the arc. Shockingly, his shooting numbers increase when playing on the road, which makes him look even better tonight.
With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Nesmith is easy to fit into all lineup builds at his $4,600 price tag. He is drawing the most ownership at this position and is an incredible way to get exposure to the Pacers. The Bucks have struggled defending the perimeter this season, allowing opponents to attempt 39.4 3-pointers per game, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league. This is a great matchup for the sharpshooter who made four 3-pointers last game and at least one 3-pointer in 30 consecutive games.
Fast Break
After a bad first game, Jaylen Brown erupted for 36 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and 60.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 with Jayson Tatum sidelined. Tatum is doubtful to play, which provides a significant boost to Brown’s production. With Tatum off the floor this season, Brown has a team-high +4.01% usage rate (per our Trend tool). Projected for a 30% usage rate, Brown is a strong option at $8,100. He is the best Celtics player to target with Tatum out, even in a difficult and slow matchup against the Magic.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
To no surprise, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best pay-up option by a comfortable margin. His ceiling projection is 10 more fantasy points than Luka Doncic. That is mainly due to the Bucks’ slate-high 118.25-point implied team total. The Bucks are also the biggest favorite on the slate at 5.5 points, which makes it tough not to get Giannis exposure. He is projected to draw 43% ownership at his $11,500 salary.
The matchup against the Pacers is one of the best for a player like Giannis, who dominates the paint. The Pacers this season are allowing 51.5 points per game in the paint, which is the fourth-highest in the league. They also rank 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.3%. Just like the first two games, where he is averaging 35 points and 15 rebounds per game, Giannis will have no trouble dominating this matchup.
Value
Giannis’ backcourt mate Bobby Portis will also benefit in this elite matchup. He had a spectacular Game 2 with a 28-point, 12-rebound double-double, shooting 11-for-19 from the field and 6-for-11 from behind the arc. Portis is more than capable of finishing and rebounding in the paint while stretching the defense out to the perimeter. He is a great role player alongside Giannis, who will draw all the defense’s attention.
Portis leads the entire three-game slate in projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin. Priced at $5,100 with power forward and center eligibility, Portis is simply the best value play available. After recording 51 DraftKings points in Game 2, Portis has boosted up the popularity charts. He is projected for a slate-high 73% ownership tonight. He is a lock in cash games and an elite tournament option at his cheap salary.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has been arguably the best player on the Pacers through their first two games. He is averaging 24.5 points, nine rebounds, two steals, and 45.75 DraftKings points per game, while shooting an impressive 58.1% from the field, 50% from behind the arc, and a perfect 8-for-8 from the charity stripe. Siakam has taken advantage of this matchup against the Bucks and is still only $7,300 tonight. This is by far the best game environment and Siakam is another player who is more than worth getting exposure to.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis captured double-digit rebounds for the first time all season in Game 2 with Jayson Tatum sidelined. He finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, two steals, and 42 DraftKings points despite shooting an uncharacteristic 5-for-14 from the field and 0-for-5 from the perimeter. He has yet to make a 3-pointer all series and his shooting numbers are bound to increase back to his season averages.
The Magic rank second overall in defensive rating this season, but they are an average rebounding team. With no Tatum, who recorded 14 rebounds in Game 1, Porzingis will be forced to be a beast on the glass again tonight. He has a great opportunity for his second straight double-double and is reasonably priced at $7,500. Porzingis does not have the same impact as Brown when Tatum is out, but he does still benefit.
Value
Veteran Al Horford is yet another player that will benefit from the absence of Jayson Tatum. In his last game without Tatum, Horford had a near double-double with nine points and 10 rebounds. It was the third time in his last four games that Horford eclipsed double-digit rebounds. Whether it is Porzingis, Horford, or both players, they will be crashing the glass without Tatum in the lineup against a weak interior Magic defense. Horford just so happens to be much cheaper than Porzingis at his $4,800 salary.
Projected to play 32 minutes, Horford will have more than enough time to pay off his price tag. He will also likely attempt double-digit field goals, which gives him a great chance to capture a double-double. Horford is the cheapest way to get exposure to a Celtics team that is favored on the road in this matchup.
Fast Break
Julius Randle was the lone bright spot for the Timberwolves in Game 2, scoring a team-high 27 points. He added six assists and four rebounds, accumulating 45.5 DraftKings points. He was disappointing in the Timberwolves victory but played much better in their loss. He has a boom-or-bust potential, which sets him up for tournaments more so than cash game contests. Randle is a three-level scorer that will cause havoc against a smaller Lakers frontcourt. At his sub-20% projected ownership, Randle is a contrarian play.
Pictured: Anthony Edwards
Photo Credit: Getty Images
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