The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Luka Doncic has the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel for this five-game slate. The Mavericks are dealing with a plethora of injuries. Three of their top scorers Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Grant Williams were all out last night and are not trending in the right direction for tonight’s game. Keep an eye on the Mavericks’ starting lineup, but each player being ruled out will only boost the ceiling for Doncic, who already looks fantastic.
Over the last five games, he is averaging a near triple-double with 36.8 points, 10.8 assists, and 9.6 rebounds per game. During that time, he had a 35.5% usage rate while playing over 40 minutes a night. He has the highest projected usage rate on the slate by a wide margin. Always a triple-double threat, Doncic is coming in with less than 15% projected ownership on both sites.
Top Value: Dante Exum vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Sticking with the Mavericks’ backcourt, Dante Exum has seen his playing time spike over the last three games due to all of the injuries. Exum has played at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games and has stuffed the stat sheet, averaging 19.5 points, 6.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 38.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 57.7% from the field. Despite being projected to play a modest 30 minutes, Exum still looks like one of the best value plays on the slate at his mid-range salary.
The Mavericks and Lakers both rank in the top 10 of pace this season, which is why this game has a 234.5-point total. Exum will thrive in this up-tempo game environment. He is leading the team in transition frequency at 29.1% and is first among the healthy players in transition points per possession. Exum is the highest-owned player on FanDuel and second-highest on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Boston Celtics – $9,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Donovan Mitchell is much cheaper across the industry than Devin Booker but has a similar ceiling projection. Caris LeVert and Evan Mobley are, at best questionable for tonight after each missing the last two games. With LeVert and Mobley off the floor this season, Mitchell has a +3.71% usage rate and a +7.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Averaging 20+ field goal attempts for the fourth straight year, and he is going to get his looks regardless of the difficult matchup against the Celtics.
The Cavaliers are double-digit road underdogs, implied to score only 106.75 points. The Celtics are the only team in the league with a perfect home record at 10-0 this season. Due to his cheaper salary, prioritize Mitchell on DraftKings, where he is tied for the highest bargain rating at the shooting guard position with 88%. Mitchell’s volume will keep him in play tonight.
Top Value: Austin Reaves at Dallas Mavericks – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Coming off the bench has been one of the best things that could have happened for Austin Reaves. He scored a season-high 28 points in the In-Season Tournament Championship game Saturday night and his salary on DraftKings has dipped below $6,000 for the first time in 20 days. In his third year, Reaves is averaging a career-high across the board in points, rebounds, and assists. He has averaged 19.4 points per game over his last five games while shooting 53.3% from the field.
With LeBron James and Anthony Davis listed as questionable, there is always a chance that one of them sits after the In-Season Tournament run. Keep an eye on their status the closer we get to lock. Reaves is a cheap way to get exposure to the Lakers in a run-back situation with all of the Mavericks chalk. He is the most popular player on FanDuel tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Normally known for his consistency, Kawhi Leonard has flashed a ceiling in back-to-back games with over 55 DraftKings points. The best part is that Leonard’s salary hasn’t budged on either site. Due to his cheap salary and a strong matchup against the Kings, Leonard has 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 11 on DraftKings. The Clippers are fully healthy, but Leonard’s usage rate has spiked to 30% in his last two games. It helps that Leonard has been ultra-efficient, shooting 59.5% from the field.
The Clippers are 2.5-point home favorites against the Kings, looking for their league-leading fifth straight victory. The Kings rank 20th in defensive rating, while opponents are shooting 49% from the field, which is the fourth-highest in the league.
Priced under $9,000 on both sites, Leonard is a strong pay-up option, given how well he has played lately and this matchup.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs Denver Nuggets – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Priced at $5,700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Patrick Williams is one of the key beneficiaries with the absence of Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso. With both off the floor this season, Williams has played the second-most minutes on the team. Leading the team in blocks and being second in steals makes Williams best suited for FanDuel. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in nine consecutive games and has a fantastic chance to make it double-digits tonight.
In his last nine games, Williams is averaging 13.9 points and 5.7 rebounds with nine total steals and eight blocks. He has yet to record a double-double this season but has been very close in his recent games. Value is a little tough to come by right now on this five-game slate, especially when trying to fit in the studs, but Williams can provide both value and a ceiling.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Dallas Mavericks – $9,800 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
If Anthony Davis plays, he will dominate the paint against a weak Mavericks interior defense. He is coming off a stellar 41-point, 20-rebound double-double where he added five assists and four blocks. It was Davis’s best game of the season, and now he has a chance to repeat that performance against the Mavericks, who rank 28th in rebounding percentage and 22nd in points allowed in the paint. Davis is a boom-or-bust fantasy player, but when he booms, he is easily in the optimal lineup.
Davis has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies between sites, as he is $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel. His sub-$10,000 price tag on DraftKings is resulting in the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and a 94% Bargain Rating. Prioritize him on DraftKings over FanDuel. If he plays, Davis is in arguably the best spot on the slate against the Mavericks.
Top Value: Draymond Green at Phoenix Suns – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Draymond Green has quietly recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. Over that time, Green is averaging 14.3 points, 8.7 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game. Chris Paul is expected back, but Green is playing so well that he is impossible to ignore at his mid-range price tag. With power forward and center eligibility on both sites, Green fits perfectly into a balanced build. He has recorded a double-double in back-to-back games while threatening for a triple-double in both.
The Suns have allowed opponents to capture 8.4 steals and 5.4 blocks per game, which sets up well for Green’s ceiling. This is another game that is projected to have a high total of 234.5 points. Known for stuffing the stat sheet, Green is a little too cheap across the industry in this matchup. Per usual, prioritize Green on FanDuel, where his defensive stats count for more.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Chicago Bulls – $11,900 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Another stud playing on a back-to-back is Nikola Jokic, who stuffed the stat sheet again last night with 25 points, nine assists, eight rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. In his last game with no days rest, Jokic went bananas against the Kings with a 36-point, 14-assist, 13-rebound triple-double in 38 minutes played. Leading the league with 12.8 rebounds per game, Jokic will dominate the Bulls’ backcourt on the glass. They rank 25th in rebounding percentage at 48.4% this season.
Similar to Luka Doncic, Jokic is coming in with around 15% projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If more value opens up throughout the day, expect that percentage to rise. If Jokic reaches his 40% usage rate as he did in two of his last three games, he is going to be the best play on the slate. This is a great spot for Jokic to dominate at low ownership.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen at Boston Celtics – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Jarrett Allen has been disappointing in his two games played without Evan Mobley this season. However, in last night’s game, Allen only played 15 total minutes as he fouled out with only four points and seven rebounds. If he can keep his hands to himself, expect a bounce-back game from Allen, who will need to battle with the Celtics big frontcourt. Allen is projected to play over 30 minutes and be one of the better values on the slate with his sub-$7,000 price tag on both sites.
With dual eligibility on FanDuel of power forward and center, Allen is projected to be the highest-owned center on the slate. Despite the tough interior matchup, Allen has 11 Pro Trends and is simply priced too cheap. If Mobley is in, getting to Allen is much more difficult. Make sure to monitor Mobley’s status so Allen can reach his ceiling in this spot against the Celtics.
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