The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is typically in his own tier at the PG position, but the gap between him and the rest of his peers today is stark: He’s priced at $12,000 on FanDuel, and the No. 2 PG (Dennis Smith Jr.) is priced at just $6,900. That will likely result in massive ownership, but Westbrook is in a very difficult spot against the San Antonio Spurs. They rank 28th in pace and second in defensive efficiency, which is a brutal combination for DFS purposes. Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.72, and the Spurs have historically been one of the few teams capable of slowing him down:
If we restrict the sample to only games in which he has been priced above $11,500, the average Plus/Minus drops to -8.92 over five matchups. Westbrook is always capable of a big game, but he carries risk today.
Value
The Magic are pretty shorthanded at the moment with Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier both out for today’s contest. That will likely result in a few additional minutes for Shelvin Mack. He played 25.5 minutes yesterday against the Kings and has averaged 0.84 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s dirt cheap on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Tomas Satoransky continues to play big minutes in the stead of John Wall and has scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. One of those games was against the Miami Heat, and Satoransky will have another matchup with them today. He has averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is priced very fairly at $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel.
Sindarius Thornwell has seen his minutes ramp up in a big way recently, culminating with over 37 in the Clippers’ last game against the Cavaliers. There’s no guarantee he’ll play that much again today, but if he does he’s in a great spot against the Orlando Magic.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is expected to be relatively low scoring, with seven of the eight teams owning an implied team total of no more than 107.25. The one exception is the Los Angeles Clippers, who have an implied team total of 114.5 against the Orlando Magic. Lou Williams has been the focal point of the Clippers since they traded away Blake Griffin, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.68 over his last 10 games. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74 on FanDuel, where he leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends. He also has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, making him an extremely appealing target on today’s slate.
Value
The Grizzlies are an absolute mess at the moment. Tyreke Evans, Andrew Harrison, and Mario Chalmers are all injured, and Marc Gasol will rest today on the second leg of a back-to-back. That should create some value in theory, but it’s hard to peg which players will see the boost in playing time and usage. No one in their back court saw more than 27.5 minutes yesterday, but that game was a blowout. Ben McLemore had seen at least 30 minutes in each of the past three games and scored at least 31.4 FanDuel points in all three, so it’s possible he could return to that level today. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal has been playing all the minutes he can handle recently. He wasn’t really needed yesterday in a blowout win against the Pelicans, but prior to that he had seen at least 39 minutes in three straight games. He’s another SG who is a strong value on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Wes Iwundu is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings and could have some appeal for the shorthanded Magic. He’s currently projected for 22.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum-priced players with a comparable minute projection have historically exceeded salary-based expectations. That said, Iwundu has averaged a paltry 0.42 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is the second-lowest mark among all players on today’s slate. He doesn’t appear to offer much upside even at minimum salary.
Small Forward
Stud
SF is one of the better positions on today’s slate. It’s headlined by Paul George, who has seen a salary decrease of $1,400 over the past month on DraftKings despite posting a Consistency Rating of 90 percent. He leads all players with 13 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and monthly salary change have historically been excellent values:
He does suffer from the same matchup concerns as Westbrook, but they’re much easier to stomach at George’s current salary.
Value
Mario Hezonja should draw another start for Gordon today, and he saw 33 minutes in yesterday’s contest with the Kings. He has been a consistent value with Gordon out of the lineup this season, averaging almost 28 FanDuel points per game:
He has a nice matchup with the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.77. He’s going to be tough to avoid on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Otto Porter was questionable heading into yesterday’s game with the Pelicans but looked good in his 26 minutes of playing time. He likely could’ve played more if the game had stayed closer, which puts him squarely on the DFS radar today against the Heat. He’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in 13 straight games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $300 over the past month. His current $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Hezonja isn’t the only Magic SF in play. Jonathon Simmons saw his usage rate skyrocket yesterday without Gordon, resulting in 34.25 DraftKings points in just under 35 minutes. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.23 on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Pau Gasol missed the Spurs’ last game against the Golden State Warriors and is currently questionable for today’s contest with the Thunder. LaMarcus Aldridge was the primary beneficiary of his absence, posting a usage rate of 30.4 percent en route to 54.4 FanDuel points. He’ll be a strong option if Gasol is out again today given the Thunder’s defensive struggles without Andre Roberson (113 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Value
Jarrell Martin has seen at least 30.5 minutes in five of his last six games, and that seems like his absolute floor today with Gasol out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. Teammate JaMychal Green should also see 30-plus minutes, and he might be an even better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Both players have an excellent matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, who have the worst team rebound rate in the league.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell is a bit of a wildcard when it comes to minutes, but he’s usually productive when on the court. He’s averaged 1.36 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among PFs on today’s slate by a pretty significant margin. He has a solid matchup with the Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11.
Jonathan Isaac saw just under 26 minutes yesterday for Orlando, and his role figures to increase down the stretch. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.35 on FanDuel is one of the best marks on the slate.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan has been a rebound machine recently, posting at least 15 in five straight games. He should have a decent chance of making it six in a row today against the Magic, who have the second-worst rebound rate in the league this season. He’s averaged 1.41 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings.
Value
Deyonta Davis will likely draw the start for Gasol against the Mavericks. He’s averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute this season and is priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel, so he shouldn’t need to play much to have a chance at returning value.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic was a major disappointment yesterday against the Kings, but he’s in another excellent spot today against the Clippers. He leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 on FanDuel and has seen a usage bump of 3.4 percentage points in games without Gordon this season:
There are really no studs to pay up for on today’s slate outside of Westbrook, which could make Vuc an intriguing target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Hassan Whiteside has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.58 against the Washington Wizards. He’s virtually impossible to trust, but he offers a ton of upside at his current $6,900 salary.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
